GMIB's official unofficial NBA All-Star ballot

Spoiler alert: there are more qualified players than spots.

Feb 10

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Girl with Peaches, Valentin Serov

There are six more days for fans to vote on the NBA All-Star starting lineups, whether the game itself happens or not. The early returns from fan voting don’t reveal anything too odd in the spots that matter: there’s only one player in money spot — Kyrie Irving as the No. 2 guard in the East — that could be on the potential cutting block if they weren’t going to get in as a starter. The other nine players are total locks for the All-Star teams in any case. No Zaza Pachulia situations on our hands here.

Every year is a tough year to pick All-Star teams. There are more players deserving of the honor than spots available. The NBA should, as I’ve been arguing for a decade now, expand the rosters to 15 per team and discontinue the practice of having the commissioner select injury replacements. Just take 15 players per team like the actual NBA does! There are plenty of worthy options who miss out every year — it’s not like there’s going to be a rash of questionable edge cases making it.

But since we have to pick 12, here’s what the official GMIB All-Star ballots would look like. Apologies in advance to everyone ruthlessly snubbed.

East Team

Frontcourt (6): Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Jayson Tatum, Tobias Harris

Backcourt (4): Bradley Beal, Jaylen Brown, Zach LaVine, Trae Young

Wildcards (2): Kyrie Irving, Bam Adebayo

Here are the locks: Embiid, Giannis, Durant, Beal, Brown and Tatum. (I know the Wizards are bad. Beal is an All-Star lock.) Middleton and Harris are personal locks; I will not be hearing debate in this courtroom. Middleton is averaging 21-6-6 on historic efficiency and is a top defender. Harris is averaging 20-7 on really high efficiency for the best team in the conference. Those two, with the other six, are non-negotiable for me.

So that leaves four spots and about 15 candidates. I wrote about LaVine on Tuesday: his offensive numbers are off the charts, and one of the few reasons Chicago is flirting with the play-in tournament. They’d be flirting with the Pistons at the bottom of the conference otherwise. Trae Young is putting up Trae Young numbers on a respectable Hawks team; you love to see it. Statistically, Kyrie has been on par with LaVine and Trae, and for a better team. Bam missed some time but continues to evolve into a hero on offense and supplies top-notch defense.

There really are so many viable candidates you could move in for those four players. I suspect James Harden will end up making the team, likely at the cost of LaVine. (As I wrote in the intro, Irving is probably making it as a starter. If he doesn’t, Harden is the player behind him in balloting.) I had Jerami Grant on my list until I just couldn’t justify keeping him on over Kyrie. Jerami really deserves an All-Star nod and I don’t think there’s space for him this season considering the Pistons’ woes. If Detroit were respectable, I’d need to reconsider my frontcourt locks.

Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon have both been terrific, but there’s no space for merely terrific on this ballot. Gordon Hayward, Julius Randle, Ben Simmons — all valuable stars on better-than-expected teams, but just not able to break through those ahead of them. (I think Simmons might make the team; I’d be a little flummoxed if he made it over Harris.) Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, Collin Sexton? Tough scratches. Jimmy Butler is maybe the only East star who just hasn’t played enough to get a spot.

West Team

Frontcourt (6): Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Rudy Gobert

Backcourt (4): Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell

Wildcards (2): Zion Williamson, Devin Booker

The West All-Star battle is somehow even tighter than that?! I don’t personally think there’s any wiggle room until you get to the two wildcard spots. Jokic, LeBron, A.D., Kawhi and PG-13 are all definite All-Stars. Curry, Doncic and Lillard are definite All-Stars. You could make the case that only either Gobert or Mitchell get in, and I’m not one who believes the very best team in the league deserves a minimum number of All-Star spots. But these guys are both All-Stars this year. Mitchell has outplayed all of the other guards vying for the final All-Star spots, and for a better team. Gobert has been the third best center in the league, and is clearly a driving force behind the Jazz’s hot start.

If you buy all of that, you’ve got the two wildcard spots left. There are about 10 viable options here, including a handful of guards with very close statistical cases. For frontcourt options, there’s Zion, teammate Brandon Ingram and Christian Wood. The statisical nod probably goes to Wood, except he’s already a handful of games played behind Zion and B.I. and he’s currently out with an injury. So if you refocus on Zion and B.I. … it’s hilariously close. Ingram is averaging 24-5-5. Zion is averaging 23-7-3. Neither is a plus defender, though I think Williamson is giving you more on a regular basis. Zion is more efficient scoring and more exciting to watch. So I give the nod to Zion here. If Wood returns quickly and continues his run, I think he takes over the spot.

You could also shrug at Wood, Zion and B.I. and slot in two of the worthy guards. You have Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox, Ja Morant, Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, John Wall and DeMar DeRozan. Booker, SGA and Fox have the best statistical cases. Fox, Booker or CP3 have the best team impact cases. Wall, Murray and DeRozan have cases there, too. Booker and Fox probably have the strongest overall cases in the end: Fox is the star-on-the-rise-putting-it-together option, and Booker is the electric player who reined in his game a little to fit with the new arrival and win more games.

This is painful, but I think it’s Booker right now. I’ll change my mind a million times by the end of February. Or maybe by the time I send this newsletter.

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Scores

Nets 111, Pistons 122 — Brooklyn is No. 27 in defense, and No. 30 since the Harden trade. My confidence is cracking. You really can’t give up 122 points in 95 possessions to the No. 24 offense in the NBA and be in the title mix. It’s just not viable.

Knicks 96, Heat 98 — Miami’s defense with a fourth quarter lockdown for the win. Playoffs come, the Heat will be a threat, believe that.

Rockets 101, Pelicans 130 — Houston falling apart without Christian Wood. Eric Gordon with the rare -40 in the box score (in 34 minutes, despite shooting fine and scoring well). Zion with the thrifty 20-5-7 and +29 in 21 minutes. Heavens praise a back-cut lob.

NBA on TNT @NBAonTNT

Zion got UP 😤

Warriors 114, Spurs 91 — Steph Curry (32 on 11/20 shooting) is disrespectful for doing this against the Spurs while they are wearing their Fiestas.

Bleacher Report @BleacherReport

THIS STEPH LAYUP WAS RIDICULOUS 😳

Celtics 108, Jazz 122 — Utah has lost once in the past month. Once! Boston (with Jaylen Brown back and as good as ever) made this interesting until Donovan Mitchell slammed the door shut.

Kemba Walker was 2/12 from the floor. Does he need some additional time off to heal up? Is this rust? It’s worrisome, whatever it is.

Magic 97, Blazers 106 — Good to see Al-Farouq Aminu back on the court, even if only for a spell as he experienced a little tightness and played just 5 minutes in his first action since November 2019. Orlando’s a total M.A.S.H. unit right now. Carmelo Anthony is now No. 12 on the all-time scoring list.

NBA @NBA

The bucket, plus the foul to move Carmelo Anthony into 12th in all-time scoring!

Sixers 119, Kings 111 — I don’t want to talk about it.

Schedule

Nine games with an intriguing ESPN doubleheader. All times Eastern. Don’t forget about our first ever League Pass Cup Game of the Week on Friday — Hawks vs. Spurs at 7:30.

Raptors at Wizards, 7
Hawks at Mavericks, 7:30, ESPN
Pacers at Nets, 8
Hornets at Grizzlies, 8
Clippers at Timberwolves, 8
Pelicans at Bulls, 9
Cavaliers at Nuggets, 9
Bucks at Suns, 10, ESPN
Thunder at Lakers, 10