Proof Points: Another indication of a smaller freshman class

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By Jill Barshay

Last fall, I made the case that college enrollment data -- exactly how many students are in college -- should become an economic indicator that everyone should monitor, not just higher education administrators. This data gives us a glimpse into how many low-income families may rise out of poverty in the future, and how many college-educated adults will generate the nation’s long-term economic growth.

I now have my eye on an even earlier indicator that predicts college enrollment: financial aid application filings. To afford college, most high school seniors will need to fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, known as FAFSA. Unfortunately, many are not. That does not bode well for college going in the fall of 2021.

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Key Findings

FAFSA filings by high school seniors are down 9.4 percent from a year ago.
FAFSA filings remain especially depressed at high schools with higher concentrations of students of color, in rural areas and small towns and in low-income schools everywhere.
Alarm bells sounded earlier in the fall of 2020 when 200,000 fewer first-time students enrolled at community colleges - a 21 percent drop in enrollment by freshmen. That was on the back of a much smaller 4 percent drop in FAFSA filings during the previous 2019-20 cycle. The current 9.4 percent drop in FAFSA filings is more than twice that size.

Lit Review

#FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker by the National College Attainment Network (data updated through Feb. 12, last retrieved Feb. 19)
FAFSA application renewals, FAFSA Tracker by the National College Attainment Network
Gurantz, O., & Wielga, C. (2021). How have FAFSA submissions differed during COVID-19? Educational Researcher. Prepublished February 10, 2021.
Dynarski, Susan M., and Judith E. Scott-Clayton. 2007. College Grants on a Postcard: A Proposal for Simple and Predictable Federal Student Aid. Discussion Paper 2007-01. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, Hamilton Project.
Knight Randolph, Kathryn. “2021 – 2022 Financial Aid and FAFSA State Deadlines,” September 28, 2020. Fastweb.
"Current Term Enrollment Estimates - Fall 2020". National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. December 17, 2020