ECONOMY

Things Are Looking Up

And it’s not just because Aaron Rodgers could join a football team near you. There’s actually been a lot of good news recently. Here’s a rundown.

Q1 GDP was a banger. Economic output grew at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Much of the growth was driven by Americans swiping their AmEx Golds: Personal consumption grew 10.7%, the second-fastest pace since the 1960s. 

• Now, the US economy is less than 1% off its pre-Covid peak. 
• Experts credit unprecedented interventions by Congress and the Fed for leading what now appears to be a “V”-shaped recovery in many sectors.

Covid cases are falling. After chilling at an uncomfortably high level for weeks, new coronavirus infections in the US dropped 16% in the past week: 55,000 daily cases vs. 66,000 last week.

• Even in Michigan, which recorded an alarming surge recently, cases fell by about 30%.
• This weekend, 100 million Americans will be fully vaccinated. 

Earnings are on . Halfway through earnings season, S&P 500 companies have reported the strongest earnings growth in more than a decade. Big Tech names like Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft have shown that the shift to digital is only accelerating, even as people venture outside. And thanks to strong consumer spending, companies like McDonald’s said sales have returned to pre-Covid levels.

Full reopenings are coming. Yesterday, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city will “fully reopen” for business July 1, just 14 months after the city was paralyzed by an initial Covid-19 wave. California, also a pandemic hotspot, has set its full economic reopening for June 15. Heck, even cruises could restart by mid-July, the CDC said yesterday.

Zoom out: While the situation in the US is highly encouraging, in India it’s only getting worse. As variants run rampant in the country, scientists don’t expect the brutal second wave to peak until the middle of May. 

MARKETS

Stock Market Surges Under Biden

Joe Biden has been president for exactly 100 days, which means it’s time to do the whole, “Let’s compare the stock market performance under Biden to other presidents” shindig.

So? How does it compare? 

The S&P has gained more than 10% since Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, making it the best first 100 days for the stock market since FDR in 1933. After Biden, it’s…

• JFK (1961): 9.27% gain for the S&P in 100 days
• George H.W. Bush (1989): 7.93%
• Donald Trump (2017): 5.32%
• Average since 1929: 3.8%

Zoom out: The occupant of the White House is just one factor among many that determines stock market performance, and the economic recovery from Covid-19 was well underway before Biden was elected. Still, the surging market reflects investor excitement for the future, even if Biden gets his way with tax hikes on capital gains and corporations.

REGULATION

Menthol on Notice

Yesterday, the FDA moved forward with a proposal to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. It also promised to focus efforts on keeping the tobacco products off the market, instead of targeting individuals who use them. That provision came in response to warnings the FDA received from civil rights leaders that the ban would lead to criminalizing the roughly 85% of Black smokers who use menthol cigarettes. 

• In a note to regulators earlier this week, the ACLU and dozens of other groups said, “Our experience with alcohol, opioid, and cannabis prohibition teaches us that this is a policy disaster waiting to happen, with Black and other communities of color bearing the brunt.”

Black health experts have been working to get menthol-flavored tobacco products banned for over a decade, citing tobacco companies’ aggressive marketing campaigns targeted at Black smokers.

Big picture: Menthol cigarettes account for about a third of total sales in the US. They were banned in the UK and EU last May, but tobacco producers won’t let it happen in the States without a fight.

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Stat: Women lost at least $800 billion in income last year, according to a new report from Oxfam International. That’s more than the combined GDP of 98 countries, and reflects the disproportionate harm Covid-19 inflicted on women, who had made significant gains in the workforce leading up to the pandemic. 

Quote: "We are looking at it but in a lot of cases gig workers should be classified as employees...in some cases they are treated respectfully and in some cases they are not and I think it has to be consistent across the board."

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Reuters his department will scrutinize gig economy companies’ controversial relationships with the workers who make them tick. Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Grubhub shares all fell after Walsh’s comments were published.

Read: Nomadland, my mother, and the frontier’s broken promise. (The Drift)

SPORTS

Crypto’s New Look

As expected, former Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence was selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft last night. 

What most of us didn’t expect was that the Tennessee wonder boy would use his signing bonus to invest in cryptocurrency. Lawrence has partnered with Blockfolio, a crypto investment app, to invest his estimated $22,630,055 signing bonus in bitcoin, ether, and yes, dogecoin.

Big picture: Lawrence joins a couple other NFL players who are dabbling in bitcoin.

• In 2020, offensive tackle Russell Okung became the first NFL player to get paid in bitcoin when he diverted half his salary to the crypto.
• Like any Chiefs fan at 8am on gameday, tight end Sean Culkin was ready to go even harder and decided to convert his entire 2021 salary to bitcoin.

Looking ahead...it’s unclear what the multiyear partnership between Lawrence and Blockfolio means for the world of crypto or sports endorsements, but we’re guessing he’s got bigger dreams than a Wheaties box.

QUIZ

Quizzing in the Rain

The feeling of getting a 5/5 on the Brew's Weekly News Quiz has been compared to still being able to do a cartwheel. We have no idea what that feels like but one can imagine.

Ace the quiz.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Amazon posted its biggest profit ever last quarter.
• Twitter shares fell as much as 10% after missing user targets and offering lower guidance for the current quarter.
• Endeavor, the owner of sports and entertainment assets including the UFC, gained 5% in its trading debut. And Elon Musk joined the board. 
• Disneyland is reopening today in Anaheim for the first time since March 2020.
• Volkswagen is being investigated by the SEC over its “Voltswagen” April Fools debacle. 

BREW'S BETS

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Goodbye, Calibri: Calibri has been Microsoft’s default font since 2007, when it replaced Times New Roman across Microsoft Office. Now it’s time for another upgrade—check out the five finalists for Microsoft’s new font. 

Follow Friday: Long boi duck, Facebook’s campus foxes, and The Humboldt Gator are all wild animals with more followers than most humans. 

GAMES

Friday Puzzle

Below are two clues for words that are homonyms of each other. Can you guess the words? 

Example: "Number after one / Also" = Two and too 

1. Uninterested / Panel
2. Permitted / Spoken
3. Walked / Adhesive
4. Cries for help / Satisfy
5. Propelled / Finished

ANSWER

1. Bored and board
2. Allowed and aloud
3. Paced and paste
4. Pleas and please
5. Threw and through