TRENDS

Business Trends to Watch This Summer

When you read the news this summer, we want you to think to yourself, "Ah yes...totally saw that coming." Which is why each of the Morning Brew writers picked out a major business trend to watch over the next few months. Let us know if we missed any.

Vaccine inequality 

In just six months, the US has vaccinated over half its adult population, a remarkable feat considering how much we seemed to lag other countries in controlling the virus last year. But it's important to remember that most vaccines have gone to wealthier nations, and just 12 countries have immunized over 20% of their population. 

Lower- and middle-income countries continue to face limited vaccine access, even as outbreaks surge in some regions of the world, particularly in parts of Asia and South America. Slower vaccinations = slower recoveries, which threaten a global economic rebound. While the US is finally starting to share those much-needed vaccines, the gulf separating wealthy and less wealthy countries looks wider than ever.

—Alex Hickey

Supply chains

Not just because my mom texts me every day that her new dryer hasn't been delivered, but supply chain bottlenecks will continue to be a hot topic through the summer. In the last two months, there have been gas, lumber, chip, ketchup, worker, and boba shortages, just to name a few that had accompanying Morning Brew pieces.

As the US fully reopens, demand for just about everything is surging, which puts even more pressure on manufacturers that had dialed back production last year. While the shortages won't last forever, the pandemic (and the Suez Canal debacle a little) highlighted the fragility of our globalized supply chains. 

—Matty Merritt

Inflation

I'm with Matty. I think the big thing to watch is whether supply chains getting back to normal will cause the inflation scaries to subside. In April, consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in 13 years. Investors are concerned that higher prices could cause the Fed to wind down some of its stimulus measures or dent companies' future profits.

If you believe Fed officials, the pickup in inflation is "transitory" and directly related to the quirks of the pandemic-era economy. After all, used cars accounted for more than a third of the monthly increase in consumer prices in April. Data released over the summer will reveal whether higher inflation is more permanent than officials had thought. 

—Neal Freyman

Crypto

Maybe I'm on Twitter too much, but cryptocurrency, and more specifically cryptocurrency regulation, is the top business topic I'll be watching this summer. Blockchain-based currencies' entire shtick is being the Wild West of finance—but now, there are a bunch of sheriffs coming to town. 

This month alone, the SEC chair said crypto needs more regulation, the Treasury Department announced that it's in the process of tightening disclosure requirements to the IRS, and the Federal Reserve said it's also in a "sprint" to create some new rules. But all that's tame compared to what's happening over in China, where a crackdown on cryptocurrency mining could foreshadow regulation elsewhere. 

—Jamie Wilde

Consumer trends

Masks off, lipstick on. Prepare for overcrowded Sephoras as Americans get ready to party like it's 1921. But there are other consumer trends I'm excited to watch this summer. Is home fitness here to stay even as gyms reopen? Maybe. After soaring more than 400% in 2020, Peloton's stock is down almost 24% this year. Here's what we do know: The home makeover revolution probably won't let up. 30% of consumers plan to continue splurging on home items after the pandemic. 

Btw, have you experienced the awkwardness of a post-Covid hug/handshake? That's why I'm bullish on contactless technology even after the pandemic, from e-wallets and telehealth to touchless coffee machines and QR-code menus. 

—Yiran Yu

CALENDAR

Important Summer Dates

This is the part of the newsletter where you take out your planner, flip to the month of June, and begin to write down all the important dates you need to know for what will be a crazy summer.

June 

• Lana Del Rey releases her new album, Rock Candy Sweet, June 1, followed by Blue Banisters on July 4.
• Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference is June 7–11.
• Soccer's Euro tournament begins June 11 and runs a full month.
• Any Pixar fans? Your boy Luca is coming to Disney+ on June 18. Other movie releases include In the Heights and F9.

July

• Marvel's Black Widow is taking over theaters on July 9. 
• In Amazon land, Bezos is stepping down as CEO on July 5. His space company, Blue Origin, has its first tourist flight scheduled to lift off July 20. 
• Pokémon Go Fest is happening July 17–18. Yes, the app’s still popular five years later.
• The Olympics are still on despite a ton of backlash. The spotlight's on Tokyo (and Simone Biles), beginning July 23. 
• Lollapalooza is back in Chicago from July 29 to August 1.

August

• Sick of being indoors? All US National Parks are free to enter on August 4 and August 25. 
• The first NFL preseason game is August 5 with the Steelers vs. the Cowboys. 
• Prepare for a month of pop concerts. Lady Gaga kicks off her “Chromatica Ball” tour on August 7 in the US, and Harry Styles starts his "Love On Tour" on August 14.
• Elizabeth Holmes's trial begins August 31.

September

• The Met Gala is back on September 13 with the theme "American Independence."
• Broadway returns September 14
• No spectators were allowed at the 2020 US Open, but tennis fans can fill the stands this year from August 30–September 12.
• NYC's annual Governors Ball is taking place from September 24–26. Billie Ellish, Post Malone, and DaBaby say better late than never.

SPONSORED BY SIMPLISAFE

ALL HAIL SECURITY SALE

You can’t put a price on safety—but it’s nice when it’s 30% off.

It’s the final day to take advantage of SimpliSafe’s Memorial Day Sale. You can get 30% off any new system plus a free HD security camera.

SimpliSafe is THE smartest way to protect your home this summer while you go off and frolic in the sunshine. You can check in on your abode through their app wherever you are—or you can just enjoy your piña colada and kick back knowing home security pros are monitoring your home 24/7.

Flip your flops on over to SimpliSafe’s site and they’ll guide you through customizing your system with entry sensors, smart locks, doorbell cams, and everything else you need to secure the exact level of summer safety you desire.

The offer ends tomorrow, readers. Seize the sale.

TRAVEL

Where Are You Going This Summer?

This summer, about half of Americans plan to take 1–2 trips or vacations, according to a YouGov-Morning Brew survey of 1,200 US adults. To the 3% who said they're taking 5 or more...please send us a link to apply to your company.

Is that normal? Almost 60% said the frequency of their summer travel plans is similar to pre-pandemic levels. 27% said they’re traveling less, and 13% said they’re traveling more.

And as oxymoronic as it sounds, WFH is encouraging more people to leave their homes. Of the 30% of respondents who work remotely at least one day a week, 42% said it's positively impacted their ability to travel. 

Some people don't know what they're doing yet

Due to pandemic uncertainty, many travelers have waited until closer to their intended travel date to book. Last November, the advance purchase window for plane tickets shortened to an average of just 30 days, Scott's Cheap Flights founder Scott Keyes told the Brew. 

But as vaccinations picked up, those jitters started wearing off. By March 2021, the advance purchase window nearly doubled to 54 days.

There are still some Covid concerns. 26% of respondents to the YouGov survey aren't planning any trips this summer. That share was even higher (30% or more) among adults 45+. 

69% expect to be fully vaccinated by the time they travel, but plenty still have pandemic worries, including…

• Contracting Covid (22%)
• Confusion over local pandemic laws (25%)
• Overcrowding (32%)
• Other travelers not following Covid rules (37%)

But the No. 1 concern? 39% of travelers said they're concerned about travel costs. 

More demand = higher prices

Generally. However, when it comes to airfare, other forces are helping to keep some price increases in check.

When countries announce they're reopening borders for US travelers, there's a predictable spike in flight searches to that destination, according to Keyes. In many cases, airlines add extra flights to those routes to meet demand.

• Keyes observed that cycle play out recently in Iceland, Greece, Croatia, and Spain, as well as several travel hotspots in the US.

While more travelers are looking to get their delayed Eurotrip on, domestic travel is still the name of the game this summer, Keyes said. National Parks out West including Yosemite and Yellowstone remain popular, and booked flights to Montana and Wyoming next month are up 23% and 21%, respectively, over 2019. 

Staying in the country doesn't mean being close to home. Travelers are gobbling up cheap fares to far-flung locations within the US. Of the top 20 most popular flight deals Scott's Cheap Flights sent subscribers over the last two months, multiple were roundtrips to Hawaii and Alaska.

Zoom out: Only 40% of YouGov’s respondents said they plan on flying this summer, while 86% plan on using a car for vacation at least once.  

YouGov is an international research and data analytics group that surveys a panel of 15+ million people across 40 major markets.

CULTURE

Summer Bucket List

Matty Merritt

FROM THE CREW

Brew's Bookshelf

We juiced up Brew's Bookshelf with plenty of book recs to carry you through the summer. We even divided them into nice little categories.

Beach reads: something easy to enjoy with a lime-a-rita in your hand.

• How Iceland Changed the World by Egill Bjarnason explores the history and global impact of the little island that could.
• While you take your Sunday nap, you'll dream about Rich Cohen's story of the infamous 1860s criminal Albert Hicks in The Last Pirate of New York.
• In Alex McElroy's satirical debut novel, The Atmospherians, women band together to address toxic masculinity by...forming a cult?

Plane reads: air travel is back and so is the guy sitting next to you who won't stop showing you videos of him playing harmonica. 

• Take More Vacations by Scott Keyes, founder of Scott's Cheap Flights, will have you regretting how much you paid for your round trip to Austin.
• City Planner Jeff Speck makes the case for why your city should be more walkable. In Walkable City Rules: 101 Steps to Making Better Places, he gives community members the data and tools to make it happen.
• If you need something to start at the gate and finish when you land, My Sister, the Serial Killer by Oyinkan Braithwaite is a quick, funny thriller.

Escape from your dad's girlfriend's barbecue reads: 

• N.K. Jemisin's Broken Earth sci fi trilogy will keep you busy for a while.
• Fall into the inspiring story of a teenage girl growing up in Nigeria in Abi Daré's The Girl with the Louding Voice.
• In his latest biography, The Code Breaker, Walter Isaacson follows Nobel-prize winning scientist Jennifer Doudna on her path to co-creating the breakthrough gene editing technique, CRISPR.

BREW'S BETS

Diversify stocks with city blocks. Fundrise makes investing in real estate simple, so you can be smart about diversifying your portfolio. Compared to publicly traded stocks, real estate has been historically more stable. Get in with just a $500 minimum investment today.*

You mean those aren’t lash extensions?! This mascara instantly makes lashes so long and defined, it’s hard to believe they’re not extensions. No wonder it has 11,800+ five-star reviews. Get in on the hype with 15% off.*

So you survived a year of virtual school...now what? The Brew's editorial interns put together this collection of advice college students would give themselves one year ago, which includes practical tips and resources to set yourself up for professional success.

Picnic essentials: Sidekick picked out the 10 things you must absolutely, certainly, without-a-doubt have when organizing a picnic this summer. Check them out. 

GAMES

Name That Song

Memorial Day was declared a federal holiday in 1971, a year that also happened to be one of the best for music...maybe ever? 

We'll give you an artist; you name the hit song they released in 1971.

1. John Lennon
2. Carole King
3. Marvin Gaye
4. The Temptations
5. Elton John
6. Don McLean
7. Bill Withers

ANSWER

1. "Imagine"
2. "It's Too Late"
3. "What's Going On"
4. "Just My Imagination (Running Away with Me)"
5. "Tiny Dancer"
6. "American Pie"
7. "Ain't No Sunshine"

Here's a Spotify playlist with songs from 1971.

✤ A Note From Fundrise

We like to include this Fundrise legal jargon, if you please.