👃 Smells like an oil price war

OPEC+ fight dirty | Carmakers change tact |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for July 7th in 3:10 minutes.

🌎 We’re six months into the year, so now seems as good a time as any to look ahead to the next six. Join BlackRock’s Karim Chedid for The Mid-Year Outlook 2021 on Thursday, and get the skinny on the major investment trends to keep on top of. Get your free ticket here

Today's big stories

  1. Oil's price hit a six-year high on the back of disagreements between the world’s biggest oil-producing nations
  2. One overlooked market has already doubled over the last year, and hedge funds think it could do again by January – Read Now
  3. The global chip shortage claimed a couple more carmaking victims

Fighting Talk

Fighting Talk

What’s Going On Here?

The oil price hit a six-year high on Tuesday, after discussions between the world’s biggest oil-producing nations and their allies – known as OPEC+ – heated up and broke down.

What Does This Mean?

OPEC+ first rolled out a host of production cuts during the pandemic in an effort to boost the oil price, and it met again last week to discuss finally dialing them back. But the talks were scuppered by a disagreement between Saudi Arabia – the group’s de facto leader – and the United Arab Emirates.

Short of a change of heart, that means current production limits will stay in place for at least another month. That’s not ideal: this tiff is depriving pandemic-battered economies of the oil they need to get back on their feet. The prospect of a major imbalance of supply and demand, then, sent oil’s price to almost $80 a barrel – its highest since 2014 (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

For markets: A man’s word is his – never mind.
Production limits are more of a gentleman’s agreement than anything: OPEC+ members don’t have to stick to them. And with prices soaring and profits up for grabs, they might be tempted to get back to pumping. That’s raising the specter of last year’s price war, when they went flat out and sent prices crashing. Investors, for their part, seem wary of exactly that: the prices of oil futures contracts are lower than the current price of oil, suggesting they think the dusky nectar will be worth less down the line.

The bigger picture: The ECB shakes things up.
Higher oil prices – which increase the costs of energy and gas – tend to lead to higher inflation, so the world’s central banks will be keeping a close eye on how the situation gets resolved. None more so than the European Central Bank, which is meeting this week to discuss tweaking its inflation target – a shift in strategy that’d be one of its most significant in two decades.

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🙋 Ask a question

2. Analyst Take

Is This The Most Resilient Trade Of 2021?

What’s Going On Here?

Stocks, bonds, and commodities: all these investor favorites are at risk if the economic recovery doesn’t pan out as expected.

Traditional investments, after all, are vulnerable to the whims of central banks, governments, and faltering economic growth.

But there’s one market whose investment rationale doesn’t have anything to do with any of those factors.

Its price has already doubled in the last year, and some hedge funds think it could do the same again before this year’s up – no matter what central banks do.

So that’s today’s Insight: what the market is, and how you can benefit from its potential year-end surge.

Read or listen to the Insight here


Know your options

We’ll say it if no one else will: options can be baffling.

But there’s no doubt they can be a seriously effective tool in any investor’s arsenal, and a great way to hedge your positions.

Thing is, there aren’t many smart, easy-to-understand resources to learn more about them. Cue Simpler Trading, whose team is made up of 18 of the brightest and boldest traders out there.

In Simpler’s eBook, you’ll learn the fundamentals of options, managing your position at expiration, the different types of settlement, all the key terms you need to know, and on, and on.

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Get your free eBook today, and know your options.

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Bad Lot

Bad Lot

What’s Going On Here?

Even more carmakers announced this week that they were cutting production on the back of the global chip shortage, but hey – at least you’ll finally be able to get a parking space.

What Does This Mean?

The chip shortage has been haunting car firms this year: they reportedly pay less than other chip-dependent companies, which sends them to the back of a very long queue. That might be why Britain’s Jaguar Land Rover warned on Tuesday that its car deliveries would be 50% lower than expected this quarter, while Germany’s Mercedes-Benz – the world’s biggest luxury car brand – said its deliveries would be constrained for the next two. And it’s not just European companies: those warnings came just a day after China’s biggest carmaker – SAIC Motor – announced that it’d slashed its production plans by around 500,000 cars in the first half of 2021.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: This isn’t getting fixed fast.
Tata Motors – Jaguar Land Rover’s Indian parent company – saw its share price drop nearly 9% on Tuesday’s news, while Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler’s fell 4%. And this is just the start, with the shortage expected to cause issues until 2023. That could put carmakers seriously out of pocket: one consulting firm recently upped its estimate of lost carmaker revenue to $110 billion this year alone – and that was before the latest announcements.

Zooming out: Carmakers adapt to survive.
The chip crisis has forced car companies to adjust their strategies. Jaguar Land Rover, for one, is planning to focus production on more profitable models for as long as the shortage persists. Ford, meanwhile, has put more emphasis on its finance business, which lends customers money to buy pre-owned vehicles. Buyers, after all, are turning to second-hand cars in the face of a lower supply of new ones, driving up their prices at a record rate.

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🙋 Ask a question

💬 Quote of the day

“I can accept failure. Everyone fails at something. But I can’t accept not trying.”

– Michael Jordan (an American businessman and former professional basketball player)
Tweet this


Look beyond the stock market

With stocks near record-highs, profits are only getting harder to come by these days.

In other words, you’d be smart to look at investments that typically don’t move in line with the stock market.

Yieldstreet offers a way to do just that: an alternative investment platform where you can invest in real estate, art, aviation, legal finance, and more.

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🌎 Finimize Live

💪 Why invest in diversity and inclusion?

A more equal world is a more profitable world for all of us. Dr Leung knows that only too well: he’s spent his career looking at how diversity in the workforce lends the labor market even more weight. He’ll tell you all about it at our next event, How To Profit From Diversity And Inclusion.

🌎 How To Profit From Diversity And Inclusion: 5pm UK time, July 7th
💉 Global Trends That Matter For Your Portfolio: 2pm UK time, July 8th
😎 How To Craft Your Own Trading Strategy: 6pm UK time, July 8th
💰 How To Make Crypto Work For You: 6pm UK time, July 14th
🤔 What Does Inflation Mean For Your Portfolio: 2pm UK time, July 15th
🍷 How To Invest In Wine: 6pm UK time, July 19th
🇧🇷 Why It Might Be A Good Time To Buy Brazil Stocks: 5pm UK time, July 20th
💥 How To Profit From The Commodities Boom: 1pm UK time, July 21st
👟 How To Invest In Sneakers And Streetwear: 1pm UK time, July 22nd
🌿 How To Invest In The Future Of Cannabis: 6pm UK time, July 23rd
📈 How To Protect Yourself From Rising Prices: 6pm UK time, July 26th
👑 How To Invest Like The Ultra-Wealthy: 5pm UK time, July 28th
🌎 How To Profit From Emerging Markets: 6pm UK time, July 28th
🏙 Investing In A Sustainable Metropolis: 11am UK time, July 29th
💰 How To Make Money From Money: 3pm UK time, August 4th
🤔 Are You An Investor Or A Trader?: 12pm UK time, August 25th

🎯 On our radar

  1. The United States of medical debt. American hospitals’ predatory billing.
  2. A new dawn of food content. How granny cooking became cool.
  3. Unidentified flying objects. Why we search for life in the universe.
  4. Just read the book already. We don’t have to be slaves to the internet.
  5. It’s not you they’re after. The real reason Costco checks receipts at the door.
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