Popular Information - One thought about Tuesday's election
This newsletter is about accountability journalism, not political punditry. But today I do want to share my thinking about the outcome of Tuesday's elections — and the ensuing discourse. Post-election analysis often assumes that the political environment will remain static over time. It looks at the political dynamics that propelled the winner and speculates that they will create persistent "challenges" for the loser. For example, the 2004 election resulted in President George W. Bush winning a second term, a Republican-controlled House, and a Republican-controlled Senate. In the Los Angeles Times, columnist Ron Brownstein wrote that Democrats faced "a long-term disadvantage in future races for the White House and battles for Congress." He suggested that it would be very difficult "mathematically" for Democrats to regain control of the presidency or Congress because of their inability to compete in the south:
Four years later, Barack Obama was elected with 365 electoral votes, including Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Democrats also increased their margins in the House (which they recaptured in 2006) and took control of the Senate, winning races in Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. In 2012, Obama won reelection while Democrats picked up seats in the House and Senate. In the New York Times, reporter Michael Cooper laid out the case that "demography" meant that Republicans would never win another presidential election while trying to appeal to older white men.
Four years later, Donald Trump was elected running precisely the kind of campaign that these strategists claimed would never work again. Republicans were also able to maintain control of the House and Senate. By 2020, things were much different. Tuesday was a bad day for most Democratic candidates. And it was particularly striking to see Republicans win the Governor's race in Virginia just a year after Biden won the state handily. But a shifting political landscape shouldn't be a surprise. My point is not that Democrats will do better in 2022. I don't know what will happen then. My point is that 2022 will be very different than 2021. Politics is much more dynamic than the coverage suggests. The only thing that is constant is change. Let me know your thoughts on the road ahead in the comments section: Moving forward, Popular Information will continue to provide reporting that can empower you — and the broader public — to be agents of change. Elections are one way that change occurs. But the government is not the only powerful institution that impacts people's lives. Large corporations play an increasingly central role. We'll return with more independent accountability journalism on Monday. |
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