When bitcoin’s price shoots up to $100,000, altcoins start their altseason, and you’re wrapped up in the ecstasy of the FOMO, perspective will get harder and harder to find.

Social media algorithms will bury bearish content because it doesn’t get as much engagement as “supercycle / only up.” In any event, you probably will dismiss any bearish viewpoint as FUD.

The underlying data and on-chain metrics will not match the price movement. The price will go up even after the market turns against you. Good analysis will seem out-of-sync with the reality you see.

Mark Helfman @mkhelfman

The people who told you #bitcoin would go above $65k are now telling you it will go below $32k while the people who sold at $65k are buying at $32k. And you’re still arguing over bear or bull market?

July 13th 2021

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You don’t want to buy into everything people tell you, but choose carefully what you believe. It’s easy to dismiss the truth when it doesn’t make sense or people don’t seem to agree with it.

Today, I’ll share one truth that too many people dismiss. Subscribe and stay tuned for the two more truths and one lie, which I’ll share as a short series of posts in the coming days.

Truth #1: when bitcoin runs, altcoins always follow.

If you’re new to the market, you may think the fun and money is in altcoins.

Once bitcoin starts to run again, that will change. Its momentum will suck up attention and investment. Everybody will hype “the king” and your portfolio will lag bitcoin’s 50% zoom as everybody sells their alts for bitcoin to catch the pump.

People will call altcoins dead simply because bitcoin’s price goes up at a faster pace. As a result, you will feel like bitcoin’s leaving the altcoins in the dust.

Before you get too wrapped up in any particular outcome, consider history. When the market’s trending up, a rise in bitcoin’s dominance always comes before altseason.

Check out this chart, which shows what percentage of the market is captured as bitcoin vs. altcoins. When the line goes up, bitcoin leads the market. When the line goes down, altcoins lead the market.

What are the shaded regions?

Those reflect the times when bitcoin’s price went up and its dominance went up, too. What happened every time bitcoin’s price and dominance went up at the same time?

Altseason followed within weeks.

When bitcoin’s price starts to run and people start telling you altcoins are dead, you need to start buying them. Altseason’s right around the corner.

Subscribe and stay tuned for separate posts about the other two truths and one lie.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

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• @mkhelfman

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