With just a point separating Bayern & Dortmund atop the table, Saturday’s result could have massive implications for this season’s title race.

BVB haven’t taken a point from their last 6 fixtures vs Bayern, yet Marco Rose will take confidence from Bayern’s structural issues this season and hope to leapfrog them as we head into the winter break.

On the other side, Julian Nagelsmann has a massive opportunity to silence the critics swarming in recent weeks.

A convincing win would provide some positive press for Der Rekordmeister, but more importantly it’s an opportunity to reestablish a buffer zone in pursuit of the 10th successive Meisterschale.

So as we gear up for the 130th edition of Der Klassiker, let’s look at the key factors to take into account ahead of Saturday's kick off.

It’s impossible to even begin a discussion without touching on either side’s number 9.

It’s the Bundesliga's record single-season goalscorer vs the fastest player to hit the 50 goalmark, it's Europe’s true Ballon D’or winner vs the highest ranked under 21, and it's the current benchmark vs the future icon of the center-forward position.

Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland are once again playing in a league of their own this season, with Bayern’s forward leading Europe’s top five leagues with 14 goals, whilst Erling Haaland’s goals per game ratio of 1.61 is equally absurd.

With bionic powers in-line with his other outlandish talents, Dortmund’s Norwegian goal-machine returned from injury far ahead of schedule last weekend, and notched his 10th goal of the season after spending just 9 minutes on the pitch.

Haaland’s presence on Saturday evening will be a massive boost for Marco Rose, with the 21-year old forward capable of exploiting Bayern’s high defensive line like no other in the Bundesliga.

Since entering the league in 2020, Haaland has scored 4 goals against the Bavarians, yet that elusive first Klassiker victory still eludes him. In the 5 matches he has contested, Haaland has gone as loser from the pitch every time, whilst in the most recent Super-cup defeat he failed to even muster a shot on target after the 39th minute.

Haaland is no stranger to toppling records, but the pursuit of the longest winless streak against FC Bayern isn't one he will likely have his eyes set on.

On the other side we have Robert Lewandowski, a man made for the big occasions who loves nothing more than scoring against his former employer. Since swapping sides in 2014, Lewandowski has played against Dortmund 14 times in the Bundesliga and scored a remarkable 20 goals.

As if it couldn’t get any worse for Marco Rose, Bayern’s Polish forward is coming off a rare match in which he didn’t find the net last weekend. Since the first of January 2020, Lewandowski has played 56 matches in the German topflight, and only once has he ever gone two successive Bundesliga matches without scoring.

Add to this the midweek Ballon d’Or snub, and Bayern’s number nine has all the fuel he needs to set the Bavarian’s on course for their 7th consecutive Der Klassiker victory.

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With empty stands and a lack of external influences, we saw home advantage almost completely dissipate across last season. Not to worry for fans of Borussia Dortmund though, because despite rising infections, North-Rhine Westphalia are persisting with a 2G-model which will allow a fifth of the Signal Iduna-Park to be filled with fully vaccinated, or recovered fans.

Though the population’s well-being must always come first, Dortmund will be delighted that at least 15,000 fans will be behind them on Saturday night.

Since fans returned in moderation earlier this season, BVB haven’t dropped a point at home in the Bundesliga. In total that’s 7 successive victories, with the customary Ole für den BVB Torhymne blasting across the stadium speakers on 21 separate occasions. 

The good news continues when we examine Dortmund’s Der Klassiker track-record when playing at home.

Since 2010, Dortmund have won just 3 of the 12 Bundesliga matches in the Allianz-Arena, however the 11 matches in the Signal-Iduna park have returned a respectable 4 wins and 2 draws. Only Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Borussia-Park has provided a fewer percentage of Bayern victories in the last decade, and Dortmund will be licking their chops at the prospects of drawing level if they can take all 3 points on Saturday. 

Corona may not completely tarnish the atmosphere in the stands, but as with so many matches this season, the football on the pitch is heavily impacted by the ongoing pandemic.

Joshua Kimmich’s anti-vaccine stance hasn’t earned him many fans in the German media, and nor will it earn him any playing time on Saturday. Bayern’s midfield conductor will miss his 5th game in a row for club & country after testing positive in mid-November.

We spoke about Erling Haaland’s importance for BVB’s gameplan, but one could easily argue that Kimmich is just as indispensable for the visitors. He averages the most touches in the league, has been directly involved in 7 goals, and takes almost all of Bayern's free kicks and corners.

Such an integral player is always difficult to replace, and Bayern have truly suffered without his leadership in central midfield.

Not only have Bayern succumbed to their second league-defeat in his absence, but the Bavarians score almost 2 goals fewer without him on the pitch. The likes of Marcel Sabitzer and Corentin Tolisso have failed to impress when given the opportunity, so Dortmund will likely highlight the center of the pitch as an area to take control of in his absence.

For Die Schwarz-Gelben it’s an entirely different outlook, with Rose’s key man in possession fit and ready for Saturday’s showdown. Whereas in previous season’s Mats Hummels has been the designated leader in Dortmund’s backline, his persistent injuries have allowed Swiss teammate Manuel Akanji to come to the fore.

The Swiss international has validated his strong showing at Euro 2020, by maintaining his high-level of performance in the early months of this season. Akanji is yet to miss a single minute in the Champions League or Bundesliga, leads the German topflight in passes completed, and is only behind the aforementioned Kimmich for passes into the final third.

If Bayern want to achieve their 5th cleansheet of the season, forcing possession away from the brains of Marco Rose's operation will be key to their pursuit. 

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Though the last decade has led even the most optimistic Bundesliga fans to sneer at the promises of a competitive title race, with a win this weekend BVB could leapfrog Bayern atop the table.

Erling Haaland’s return, the colossal home atmosphere, and significant personnel advantages all lead to the suggestion that BVB will approach Saturday’s fixture with full-blooded confidence, but Dortmund’s dismal Champions League campaign, Haaland’s lack of gametime, and Bayern’s superior record all tell a contradictory tale.

With the past decade throwing up 4:2 thrillers, 6:0 thrashings, and the odd 0:0 draw, we are truly in for anything & everything on Saturday night. It's precisely what makes Der Klassiker the most anticipated match on the German football calendar, and why its result will once again go a long way in determining how the rest of the Bundesliga season unfolds. 

Who do you think will win the 130th Der Klassiker? Do you think BVB are title-favorites if they win on Saturday? Let me know on twitter using #BUNDESLETTER.

Cover Photo: Gabriel Foligno