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Also: 2022 predictions for fintech, climate tech, foodtech, healthtech and other emerging tech verticals; The outlook for PE's healthcare providers...
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December 25, 2021
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7 predictions for US venture capital in 2022
VC exceeded every expectation and more in 2021—setting new records for value across deals, exits and fundraising.

Following that up will be a momentous task, especially as uncertainty going into 2022 has grown with the potential for a broader shift in macroeconomic conditions and rising interest rates.

Despite all of this, we still expect to see a plethora of areas still growing within VC.

Our 2022 US Venture Capital Outlook lays out the case for more geographic diversity of investments, including expansion within the US outside of so-called "VC hubs" in addition to startups outside the US.

We also expect 2022 to be a shake-out year for the SPAC phenomenon, as the rubber meets the road for business combinations and potential regulation.
 
We expect >25% of 2020 SPACs won't make a deal within the traditional two-year timeframe.

SPAC acquisition activity has shown momentum over the close of 2021, but time will tell if this pace continues or potentially falters and causes a swath of SPACs to wind down and return capital.

The emergence of SPACs has undoubtedly boosted the number of VC-backed public listings in 2021, which as an exit route had an almost unbelievable year on the back of attractive public market valuation multiples shoving open the IPO window.

Despite the record-setting year for IPOs, we believe the inventory of startups that are at or above the median valuation of a 2021 public listing should be a driving force in keeping this activity elevated.

It's always hard to follow up a record year, especially when almost every facet saw success, but it has been a losing bet to side against VC in recent years.

Of course, markets go in cycles, and while much of VC is slightly shielded because of the illiquidity, there is enough change on the horizon to create an extreme change in the trendlines.

To see all of our VC predictions, click to download our free 2022 US Venture Capital Outlook.

Feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback, or if you would like to discuss the research.
 
Best,

Cameron Stanfill, CFA
Lead Analyst, Venture Capital
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PE trends and strategies in behavioral health, dentistry, dermatology and vision
Since 2016, behavioral health, dentistry, dermatology, and vision together have accounted for around half of healthcare provider buyout activity.

In our latest analyst note, I took a deep dive into these key provider segments.

The 35-page report features new data slices, market maps, and analysis of revenue enhancements, reimbursement trends, growth strategies, exit opportunities, and more. Some highlights:

Behavioral Health—Positive reimbursement and demand dynamics have made behavioral health the hottest private equity provider segment. While multiples are expected to remain sky-high for the next several years, Medicaid expansion and telehealth reimbursement rates will shape the behavioral health space in the medium to long term.

Dentistry—This segment has been a staple of private equity investment for two decades, yet the space is still seeing new platforms and strategies emerge. With several private equity-backed DSOs having grown to nationally dominant players, dentistry may see significant terminal exits in the coming years, which could include IPOs and sales to payers or other strategics.
 
Segment market maps show representative PE-owned platforms.

Dermatology—Derm is the only segment profiled in this report that has seen declining deal activity in recent years, a result of a lack of strategy diversification thus far and of strategic missteps by some large platforms. However, the segment may see a reignition of deal activity in the coming years as platforms trade hands for the first time and firms explore greenfield space in pure-play cosmetic dermatology and medical spas.

Vision—Private equity activity in vision continues to accelerate due to myriad opportunities for revenue enhancement up and down the acuity scale. Numerous ophthalmology platforms created in the late 2010s should appear on the market soon, while the largest optometry groups must differentiate themselves in an increasingly crowded optical retail market.

Read the free report here: Established Private Equity Healthcare Provider Plays

If you're involved in the healthcare private equity landscape or just want to learn more, I'd love to connect via email or LinkedIn.

Finally, look out for the 2022 launch of our twice-annual report covering private equity deals, exits, and fundraising across the healthcare sector—from healthcare services to tech to pharma.
 
Best,

Rebecca Springer, Ph.D.
Analyst, Private Equity
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Thematic Research
2022 Emerging Technology Outlook

Venture investors set all kinds of records this year for investment in emerging technologies.

But what new and innovative sectors are primed for a standout 2022?

Our analysts have just released 11 predictions on what to expect across all of our tech coverage areas, including fintech, healthtech, mobility tech, foodtech and climate tech.

We've also compiled data on most active investors, early- and late-stage startups to watch, the biggest deals that helped define a blockbuster 2021 and more:
download our free outlook
 
In the News
Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Crypto startups have raised more money in 2021 than all previous years combined: "Investors are funding anything and everything." [Bloomberg]

  • Religion apps attract a wave of investment. [WSJ]

  • Europe's unicorn count is booming—and healthtech is a sector to watch in terms of future long-term opportunities. [Insider]

  • Venture capital isn't slowing down in 2022: "Gone are the days when VC was not much more than a cottage industry." [Institutional Investor]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
ICYMI
Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates Thematic research Emerging Technology Research Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Our best research of 2021 (Jan. 1)
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