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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), Yesterdays Insider Buys & Yesterdays Unusual Call Options Volume.

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TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up!

ANALYSIS ON RUSSIA/UKRAINE THAT NO ONE ELSE IS TALKING ABOUT: If Russia invades it will almost certainly end in heavy sanctions. Nuclear powers do not fight other nuclear powers. For markets this likely means increasing energy, food, commodity costs. Europe is largely dependent on Russian oil, food, etc. That void will need to be filled elsewhere and its a global market. Such a scenario will worsen already increasingly bad inflation.

China will be monitoring closely how the West reacts to a possible invasion of the Ukraine. If Russia invades and gets a minor slap on the wrist then the probability that China will invade Taiwan (The worlds largest producer of semiconductors) increases exponentially. Moreover Russia & China have entered into a partnership agreement. If it turns out that China enabled Russia to invade the Ukraine by cushioning the blow of NATO sanctions, the West may sanction China as well. It is important to remember that if Russia is economically sanctioned the largest beneficiary will be China as the West looks for another source of trade. But current conditions between Russia and China calls this into question.

It is important to remember that war between nuclear powers is not fought in the conventional sense, but rather on the economic, cyber, political, & information fronts. Ergo ... worst case scenario ... Russia and China may be using the economic weakness of the West derived from record covid spending and inflation to flip the script in an attempt to emerge as the worlds new dominant economic powers. Should things come to a head with both Russia and China, the inflation environment in the West will most certainly result in uncontrollable rising price inflation and likely recession/depression. I think its safe to say that Europe needs Russian imports more than vice versa and similarly the worlds dependence on cheap Chinese goods and labor crates the same scenario for the West in general.

Of course, Russia may not end up invading the Ukraine. Russia may just be testing NATO's response and seeking concessions from the West. Putin likely has a number of options at his disposal, and wont invade the Ukraine unless the benefits outweigh the costs. Considering that the EU and NATO are so dependent on Russian energy/exports, and Russia's new agreement with China, the cost/benefit calculation may have been flipped. And should it be judged by Putin that now is the time to invade the Ukraine, and China invade Taiwan, trust me when I tell you the true target economically will NOT be either the Ukraine & Taiwan, but rather the U.S. & NATO.

I say this not to go down conspiracy lane, nor to encourage a political discussion, but rather to keep traders cognizant on the real economic implications if this situation spirals out of control. Traders who remain optimistic but want to buy insurance may consider allocating profits to SPY puts or SPX calls as a hedge, while maintaining current long positions.

• Scenario 1: Russia does not invade

• Scenario 2: Russia invades and gets lackluster inconsequential sanctions that will have a low to moderate effect on existing inflation.

• Scenario 3: Russia invades and gets lackluster inconsequential sanctions that will have a low to moderate effect on existing inflation. However China steps up belligerency in the South China Sea resulting in China sanctions from the West which will have a higher impact on inflation.

• Scenario 4: Russia invades and gets hard sanctions that will have a moderate to high effect on existing inflation.

• Scenario 5: Russia invades and gets hard sanctions that will have a moderate to high effect on existing inflation. China steps up belligerency in the South China Sea and/or invades Taiwan resulting in uncontrollably high inflation.

Buy List Update: Futures across the world are ugly as a result of uncertainty surrounding Russia/Ukraine. I cannot in good conscious add another play to the buy list with geopolitical uncertainty tanking markets around the world.

Headwinds Ahead: I have a responsibility to warn my subscribers that bullish companies are going to be increasingly hard to find in this environment. I therefore owe it to you to scrutinize my picks more than ever as a result of REAL headwinds. The quick turnarounds we were accustomed to in the past are simply not going to happen in this economy. A swing that may take a month or two last year may take a quarter or two this year. Therefore I think it prudent to buy in slow & only average down when it hurts. Most companies remain profitable, but an adjustment in long term valuations & expectations are necessary. I will trade accordingly.

Lots of Red Still on the BUY LIST: There’s some solid value on the buy list but assess the situation and buy in slowly! Check my work, look over the financials. No stocks added today. I assess uncertain market conditions in todays market due to uncertainty surrounding Russia/Ukraine. It isn’t worth the risk. There is plenty of solid picks & we have plenty of market exposure across multiple sectors.

AVERAGE STATS ON ALL STOCKS ON THE BUY LIST AS OF MARKET CLOSE 02/07/2022 (FINVIZ & YCHARTS)

• Average Trailing PE: 10.27 vs S&P (25.00 est)

• Average Forward PE: 8.50 vs S&P (22.35 est)

• Average PS: 0.75 vs S&P (2.85 est)

• Average PEG: 0.72

• Average PB: 1.72 vs S&P (4.38 est)

• Average Current Ratio: 2.26

• Average Insider + Institutional Investment: (84.27%)

• Average Debt to Equity: 0.49

• Average P/L on the BUY LIST as of 02/11/2022 -6.62 (Value at a Discount Amid a Market Pullback)

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Significant News Heading into 02.14.2022:

• European stocks slide 2% on Russia-Ukraine tensions; Germany’s DAX down 3.4%

• Japan’s Nikkei falls more than 2% as investors monitor Ukraine tensions; oil rises over 1%

• Stock futures fall as Wall Street weighs Russia-Ukraine tensions, potential Fed rate hikes

• No sign that Putin has stopped his ‘march towards war,’ says former U.S. ambassador to Russia

• U.S. Treasury yields edge lower on Russia-Ukraine fears

• RPT-FOREX-Dollar hits two-week high on tensions over Ukraine

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 15 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 56 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 13 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

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