Could Russia pull off a false flag attack?

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Headlines over the past few weeks have raised the specter of Russia carrying out a false flag attack to justify invading Ukraine. So what is a false flag attack, why might the Russians try one, and if they did, what are their chances of succeeding?

False flag attacks involve operatives from a would-be aggressor staging an assault on their own side and pinning the blame on the other side to justify further action. It’s the international equivalent of framing someone for a crime. The Nazis used the tactic to justify invading Poland at the onset of World War II.

But false flag attacks are uncommon these days. University of Washington’s Scott Radnitz explains how widespread internet access, commercial satellite imagery, near ubiquitous smartphone cameras and a large dose of popular cynicism about governments have changed the equation for any nation tempted to try to deceive the world.

Also today:

Eric Smalley

Science + Technology Editor

The Russian and Ukrainian governments both blamed forces aligned with the other for mortar fire in eastern Ukraine and for using the accusations as justification for increased aggression. AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda

What are false flag attacks – and could Russia make one work in the information age?

Scott Radnitz, University of Washington

Attacking your own side and blaming your foe has a long history and a firm grip on the popular imagination. But the internet makes it difficult to pull off – and less desirable.

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    A bipartisan group of US lawmakers is pushing for a ban on active trading by members of Congress following accusations that some of their colleagues may have engaged in insider trading.

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