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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), Yesterdays Insider Buys & Yesterdays Unusual Call Options Volume.

INSIDER BUYS / UNUSUAL CALL VOLUME / UNUSUAL PUT VOLUME

TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up!

TODAY: For you homeowners out there, you get to see how much inflation has affected the market value of your home (national average). Moreover if you Fed Bowman Speech Yesterday, I got ya! Fed's Bowman keeping open mind on possible half percentage point rate hike in March. The FLASH PMI for the Manufacturing, Composite, & Service industries get reported today. But with this whole Russian garbage going on, none of this will likely matter today.

Hail Mary of the Day: Sanctions on Russia may have already been priced in for many companies. Lets see!

BUY LIST UPDATE: I have fully updated the BUY LIST & the Price Based Assessment Watchlist.

RUSSIA UPDATE: What you are about to read may seem “political” in nature. I assure you this isn’t my intent. I’m a realist, I look at things the way things are, not how I wish they were. I give little credence as to what this information means to your favored political persuasion. I trade reality, not ideology. As a result this subject matter may be uncomfortable to those who are ideologically inclined first, & a realist second. I got to give it to ya straight & in a way you can understand the root causes & second & third order effects thereof. I could easily just give you some key observations, thereby telling you what I believe will happen with no supporting evidence as to how I arrived at this conclusion. However I’m a firm believer in showing folks how I arrived at my conclusions, just as I show people how & why I pick every stock on my BUY LIST. Analysis without the methodology of the core facts of how one arrives at a conclusion is NOT actionable information! Its simply believing in whatever I say, & I will NEVER ask you to “trust me … take my word for it.”

I received quite a bit of criticism for assessing that Russia would invade this holiday weekend. I predicted earlier that Russia would invade on Sunday after the Winter Olympics. Russia didn’t enter the separatist regions until 24 hours after the closing ceremony. Right time, wrong day. However as markets were closed on Monday, & I successfully predicted a major geopolitical event that will no doubt move markets (When this information was ACTIONABLE for my subscribers), I’d say not bad for a days work!

So what happened? Well for those of you who haven’t been paying attention to the news, Putin recognized the separatists areas of the Ukraine & sent troops in as a “peace keeping force.” Of course, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT PUTIN WONT INVADE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF THE UKRAINE. However sanctions are now a certainty. Both by NATO & individual countries.

President Biden has already signed an executive order forbidding U.S. citizens from investing in the separatist regions, something no American was doing anyway, just as no American nor ally invested in Crimea after Russia invaded in 2014 … which is why Crimean infrastructure cannot support the waterworks to avoid their current drought (Russia doesn’t have the tech to filter seawater). And now we are waiting for additional sanctions to come down from NATO, although it appears, judging by the White House’s response, that there are some disagreements among NATO member states. Likely surrounding fossil fuels.

The manner by which Putin ordered the invasion of the Ukraine enables him to have his cake & eat it too. Originally the Biden Administration held off on sanctions as a deterrent to war. However since Putin is now occupying ONLY the separatist areas (for now), & there is so much more of the Ukraine to invade, maintaining the “wait & see” first & “sanction later” doctrine is presenting a problem for NATO. Two NATO states, Germany & Italy, pushed back on sanctioning Russia’s oil & natural gas industry, EVEN when they assumed a wide scale shock & awe invasion was immanent. These states will be even less inclined to support sanctioning Russia’s oil & natural gas now that the argument can be made that Putin “didn’t really invade,” & not a single shot was fired. And the U.S. cannot guarantee Europe a steady supply of energy to help take the sting out of sanctioning Russia as, well I wish I was making this up, the Biden Administration is doing whatever it can to prevent further fossil fuel production … even as he was declaring a Russian invasion (and therefore sanctions) was immanent. With this said, expect Germany to halt/delay the certification of the Nord Stream Pipeline, but also expect Germany to be more hesitant to halt imports on Russian energy altogether. Ladies & gents, the price of oil is certainly going higher unless OPEC opens the flood gates. This grants OPEC nations a hell of a lot more leverage than they’ve had in many years on the geopolitical front.

So what do we look for now? Sanctions for one. Which industries are affected, & how devastating will they be? I don’t know yet. HOWERVER TURN YOUR HEAD TO CHINA!! Prior to sending troops into the Ukraine, Putin stacked the deck in his favor with trade agreements with China to help take some of the sting off of possible sanctions. What does this mean? It means China almost certainly enabled Russia to invade the Ukraine … & they knew precisely what they were doing. For Russia to invade without such trade agreements with China, any sanctions against Russian industry would have had more bite to them. So I maintain my “stay the hell away from Chinese equities” thesis. Not for ideological reasons, but for fear the sanction train will turn their way, & the uncertainty alone will make the street more hesitant on Chinese ADR’s. You can bet that China is watching how we react to Russia very closely, & China still has designs on Taiwan. I have little doubt that the political discourse will turn to China as a Russian enabler in the coming days.

Anyway I’m proud of my geopolitical analysis as of late. I hope it has provided some REAL value to my subscribers. And for those of you who actioned the information provided, you likely saved or made quite a bit of money. Indeed the information provided was clarity when things were murky, as accurate as could have been given the circumstances, & more importantly you got to trade my analysis first … in many cases well before such things were considered by the news. As time goes on, & you continue to see my credibility on predicting uncertain events, (I never get them 100% correct) confidence in trading the news will become more prevalent to my subscribers. That’s my goal anyway.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil & Natural gas are going up

• Stay away from Chinese equities

• Stay away from Russian equites ($VEON $MBT $MTL $QIWI $CLAN $OZON)

• Stay away from companies with heavy Russian exposure

• NATO is in disagreement (or has not made up their mind) as to energy sanctions (Because they cannot name specifics).

• OPEC member states have more leverage as the West desperately needs more production.

• Don’t count on dramatic increases in energy production in the U.S.

• $4.00+ gallon of gas is a VERY REAL possibility (Raising the price of everything else with it & lowering the real spending power of consumers).

• The Federal Reserve will need to take sanctions & energy costs into account when assessing possible interest rates increases.

• There is a solid chance that Biden will ban ALL imports of Russian ammunition, (Just as he banned all NEW import permits on Russian ammunition) which benefits my public position in $POWW over the long term.

• If NATO does NOT sanction Russian oil & natural gas, Russia will have achieved critical leverage over Germany & Italy.

• If you find a solid company trading at a value with limited Russian exposure, you may have an EXCELLENT dip buying opportunity for a long term investment today.

• Expect Germany to halt/delay the certification of the Nord Stream Pipeline, but also expect Germany to be more hesitant to halt imports on Russian energy altogether without a guaranteed stable source of reliable energy.

• BE CAREFUL! Sanctions may have already been priced in.

Headwinds Ahead: I have a responsibility to warn my subscribers that bullish companies are going to be increasingly hard to find in this environment. I therefore owe it to you to scrutinize my picks more than ever as a result of REAL headwinds. The quick turnarounds we were accustomed to in the past are simply not going to happen in this economy. A swing that may take a month or two last year may take a quarter or two this year. Therefore I think it prudent to buy in slow & only average down when it hurts. Most companies remain profitable, but an adjustment in long term valuations & expectations are necessary. I will trade accordingly.

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Significant News Heading into 02.22.2022:

• Dow futures erase most of earlier losses despite Russia-Ukraine tensions

• European markets pull back as Russia-Ukraine tensions rise; Porsche, VW surge in IPO talks

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leads losses in Asia as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate

• Biden orders sanctions on separatist regions of Ukraine after Putin decree, EU vows additional measures

• Treasury yields fall as Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate

• Russian assets tank, leading global sell-off as Putin sends forces into eastern Ukraine

• China’s Foreign Minister Wang speaks with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken about Ukraine

• Oil prices surge as Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates

AVERAGE STATS ON ALL STOCKS ON THE BUY LIST AS OF MARKET CLOSE 02/18/2022 (FINVIZ & YCHARTS)

• Share Price Low/Average/High: 4.26/30.46/91.51

• Average Trailing PE: 9.87 vs S&P (24.56est)

• Average Forward PE: 7.98 vs S&P (22.35 est)

• Average PS: 0.76vs S&P (2.85 est)

• Average PEG: 0.68

• Average PB: 1.64 vs S&P (4.38 est)

• Average Current Ratio: 2.34

• Average Insider + Institutional Investment: (84.98%)

• Average Debt to Equity: 0.74

• Average P/L on the BUY LIST as of 02/11/2022 -6.62 (Value at a Discount Amid a Market Pullback)

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 14 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 20 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 6 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

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