Breaking down the NBA seeding races

The ultra exclusive postseason field is set. Now to determine ... everything else.

Apr 6

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Wave, Gustave Courbet, 1869

The NBA has officially whittled its field from 30 teams to 20 as all playoff and play-in spots have been clinched in the final week of the regular season. Yes, that means that as was destined the Los Angeles Lakers have been eliminated from contention with a Spurs win and a Lakers loss. Sad!

That said, most of the seeds are still up for grabs with 2-3 games remaining for each team. So let’s look through the ranges where teams can still land and likely outcomes. Playoff Status is the website I’m largely relying on here.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat: The Heat will claim No. 1 with one win in their final two games or a loss from the Bucks and Celtics. Odds are the Heat will be No. 1.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks could still land anywhere between Nos. 1 and 5, but it’s most likely they will end up Nos. 2-4. By record, they are in a 3-way tie with Boston and Philadelphia. Milwaukee has the tiebreaker over the Sixers and has won its division. Bucks vs. Celtics on Thursday looms large. Milwaukee’s other two games are at the Pistons on Friday and Cavaliers on Sunday.

Boston Celtics: Like the Bucks, Boston could technically still land anywhere from Nos. 1 to 5, but will more likely end up Nos. 2-4. The Celtics have the tiebreaker over the Sixers due to divisional record and as mentioned will decide their Bucks tiebreaker on Thursday. Boston’s other two games: at Bulls on Wednesday, at Grizzlies on Sunday.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers’ technical range is Nos. 2-5, but Nos. 2-4 are by far the most likely. Philly doesn’t have any of the tiebreakers so it needs a better record outright. On that note, here is Philly’s remaining schedule: at Toronto on Thursday, then the Pistons and Pacers at home this weekend. That’s pretty interesting!

~BRIEF INTERRUPTION TO TALK ABOUT WHETHER YOU WANT THE NO. 2 SEED ANYWAY~

Brooklyn, who we will talk about, is currently in the 7-8 play-in match-up, which means that if they end up there and win their play-in game they would be the No. 7 seed. If that continues to look likely heading into the weekend, one or more of these teams could decide they would rather face the Bulls or Raptors than the chance of facing the Nets, so keep that in mind.

Toronto Raptors: The Raptors’ technical range is Nos. 3-6, but Nos. 5-6 are the most likely. Toronto is a game better than Chicago in the standings and has the tiebreaker. The Raptors have Philly on Thursday then the Rockets and Knicks over the weekend.

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls can only finish No. 5 or 6. They need to outperform Toronto by two wins over the last three games (so go 3-0 with the Raps going 1-2 or go 2-1 with the Raps going 0-3) to get No. 5. So … it’s probably No. 6 for the Bulls. If you’re feeling like the Bulls are losing steam and not a major postseason threat, that might make the No. 3 seed more attractive, no? Hence the problem with trying to avoid the No. 2 seed: you might mess up and miss No. 3 as well.

PLAY-IN TIME

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers can finish anywhere between Nos. 7-10 at this point. Brutal! The Cavs are 1.5 games up on Brooklyn and Atlanta and 2.5 games up on Charlotte. Atlanta has the tiebreaker over Cleveland and the Nets tiebreak will be decided Friday, though it skews Brooklyn right now. The tiebreak with Charlotte is complicated and probably not relevant. Last two games are a crucial game in Brooklyn Friday and vs. the Bucks on Sunday. In any case, odds are the Cavaliers will have at least one postseason game at home, either a play-in or a playoff game.

Brooklyn Nets: The Nets can finish Nos. 7-10, and the odds are pretty wide open, especially for Nos. 7-9. Finishing Nos. 7-8 in the regular season means a potential series against the No. 2 seed. Finishing Nos. 9-10 in the regular season means no better than the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, thus a series against the No. 1 seed. The Nets have the tiebreak over the Hawks, do not have the tiebreak over the Hornets, and the tiebreak with Cleveland will be determined Friday. In addition to that game, the Nets face the Knicks on Wednesday and the Pacers Sunday.

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks can finish Nos. 7-10, but will probably end up Nos. 8-10. They have the tiebreaker over Cleveland and Charlotte, but not Brooklyn. Games remaining: Wizards on Wednesday, Heat and Rockets this weekend.

Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets can technically finish Nos. 7-10, but Nos. 8-10 is far more likely. Charlotte has the tiebreak only over Brooklyn, though it could still potentially get it over Cleveland, but if that’s relevant everything has gone sideways here. To get above Brooklyn, the Hornets need to perform one game better than the Nets. To get above Atlanta, the Hornets need to perform two games better than the Hawks. Charlotte’s games remaining: Magic, Bulls, Wizards.

Western Conference

Phoenix Suns: The Suns will be the No. 1 seed.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies will be the No. 2 seed.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors can technically finish Nos. 3-5, but the odds are them landing No. 5 are incredibly tiny. (It would involve going 0-3 to finish with the Mavericks going 1-2 and the Jazz going 3-0. In that case, Utah claims No. 3 in a multi-team tie by virtue of winning their division despite head-to-head records. The NBA!) Golden State has a 1-game lead on the Mavericks for No. 3 but Dallas has the tiebreak, so the Warriors need to stay a game ahead to claim No. 3. Games remaining: Lakers, Spurs, Pelicans.

Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks can finish Nos. 3-5. They have tiebreaks over the Warriors and Nuggets; the Jazz tiebreak is complicated as they are even head-to-head and Dallas has a better conference record, but Utah can win its division (which supersedes conference record) while the Mavs cannot. The Mavericks’ best bet is remain ahead of Utah in the standings; currently, Dallas is up two games. The Mavs’ games remaining: Pistons, Blazers, Spurs.

Utah Jazz: That OT win on Tuesday helped a lot. The Jazz can technically finish Nos. 3-6, but Nos. 5-6 are most likely. Utah swept the Nuggets this season so has the advantage on winning the Northwest Division (currently a half-game up on Denver in the standings). The Jazz have the Thunders, Suns and Blazers remaining.

Denver Nuggets: The loss to San Antonio might have cost them their best chance at winning the division and maybe sneaking into No. 4. Denver can finish Nos. 5-7. They can claim no worse than No. 6 — and avoidance of the play-in — with one more win. The Nuggets do not have the tiebreakers with Utah or Minnesota, and sit a half-game behind the Jazz and two games ahead of the Wolves. Denver’s games remaining: home against the Grizzlies and Lakers.

PLAY-IN PARTY

Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves can finish Nos. 6 or 7, but after Tuesday’s loss No. 7 — and the dreaded play-in — are far more likely. Bad Wolves! Bad! If the Wolves can make up two games on the Nuggets (i.e. going 2-0 while Denver goes 0-2) Minnesota has the tiebreak and will claim No. 6. Otherwise, a Wolves loss or Nuggets win sticks Minnesota in No. 7 and a home play-in game.

L.A. Clippers: The Clippers will be the No. 8 seed, which means a road play-in game against the Wolves (highly likely) or Nuggets. A win there makes L.A. the No. 7 seed, facing the Grizzlies. A loss there gives the Clippers a second-chance against the winner of Pelicans-Spurs for a shot at a series against the Suns. Sounds fun.

New Orleans Pelicans: The Pels can finish Nos. 9 or 10. They are one game ahead of San Antonio but the Spurs have the tiebreak. So they need to at least match S.A.’s closing record in the final three games. The Pelicans’ remaining schedule: Blazers, Grizzlies, Warriors.

San Antonio Spurs: See above. The Spurs finish No. 9 if they do one game better than the Pels from here on out. Otherwise, they finish No. 10. There will certainly be a play-in game between these teams; the only matter remaining is where that game will be played. Winner of that game gets the loser of Clippers-Probably Wolves with a shot at the Suns on the line; loser goes home. The Spurs’ remaining schedule: Wolves, Warriors, Mavericks.

Scores

Sixers 131, Pacers 122 —

Michael Levin @Michael_Levin

the singular Sixers experience is hitting the most 3s in franchise history, planning the parade route as several players have career nights, and Embiid needing to come back in because the tanking team led by Kurt Mutt and the owner’s grandson has cut the lead to single digits

45-13 on 65% True Shooting for Joel Embiid. +20 in 39 minutes; the Sixers were -11 in the nine minutes he rested.

Cavaliers 115, Magic 120 — Tough loss for Cleveland to lock them into the play-in. Heartbreaking win for Orlando to break the tie with Houston for the worst record.

Rockets 105, Nets 118 — 42-piece for Kyrie Irving, who hit eight threes. Only East play-in team that won on Tuesday (only team that faced the Rockets), so they are currently slotted in No. 8, which is nice for the Heat, because it increases the odds Brooklyn is No. 7.

Hornets 115, Heat 144 — Miami has won five straight in the aftermath of the Butler-Spoelstra-Haslem argument. I mean, they lost the game it happened and the two games afterward, but they seem good now. One more win and they claim the No. 1 seed. Charlotte, meanwhile, looks increasingly likely to have to play on the road through the play-in tournament.

Hawks 108, Raptors 118 — Fred VanVleet shot 4/21 and was only a -2. Pascal Siakam with 31/13/6 and no turnovers. I don’t think your team wants it with the Raptors in the first round. That’s like one of six or seven teams you “don’t want it with” in the East, and the Hawks might be one of those too, but still. You don’t want it with the Raptors.

(Trae Young is amazing.

Bleacher Report @BleacherReport

Trae Young dropping DIMES 🔥

)

Bucks 127, Bulls 106 — Chicago will play the Heat, Bucks, Sixers or Celtics in the first round. The Bulls are now 1-13 against those teams (1-1 against Boston, 0-12 against the others).

Wizards 132, Timberwolves 114 — Minnesota’s loss plus the Jazz OT win makes it very likely they end up No. 7 and in the play-in.

Blazers 94, Thunder 98 — There’s nothing quite like Blazers-Thunder to bring out the ~~best~~ worst in tankdom.

Michael Sykes, II @MikeDSykes

Yo. The Thunder basically had a 6 man rotation of G Leaguers playing tonight. 3 of 5 starters on 10-day contracts. Another on a two-way deal. 5 guys playing 39 minutes or more. And they went on a 26-4 run to beat the Trail Blazers tonight. THE TANK OFF IS REAL 😂😂😂😂😂

Spurs 116, Nuggets 97 — San Antonio is in the play-in! Incredible work late this season for the Spurs. Devin Vassell is coming along. Keldon Johnson is on a tear. Dejounte Murray (out sick) and Jakob Poeltl are cornerstones. I’m with the Spurs next season.

Nikola Jokic: 41-17 on 54% True Shooting, -11 in a 19-point loss.

Grizzlies 115, Jazz 121 (OT) — Congratulations to the Jazz for the win but wow this Kyle Anderson play to get this to overtime. Very nearly heartbreaking for Utah.

NBA TV @NBATV

KYLE ANDERSON SENDS IT TO OT AT THE BUZZER 🚨

Pelicans 123, Kings 109

Lakers 110, Suns 121 — The Lakers are officially eliminated from playoff contention on April 6. What a turn of events. LeBron James still needs to play two of the Lakers’ last three games — and score at a high clip — if he wants his second career scoring crown. Embiid has taken a narrow lead on that.

Devin Booker be careful!