Some say the Stock-to-Flow model is dead. Not me.

Mark Helfman @mkhelfman

Good morning! Don’t worry about S2F/S2Fx. Bitcoin’s price has gone 400% higher and 70% lower than predicted for months at a time. Lots of deviation. These models are as valid now as they’ve ever been. Enjoy your day!

December 23rd 2021

8 Likes

Even if S2F or S2Fx fail, we have lots of other models. 

Four-year cycles. Hash cycles. Supercycles. Expanding cycles. Shrinking cycles. All sorts of multiples, moving averages, and extrapolations. 

They're all great, but they also contradict each other. 

Peak in Spring 2022? October 2022? Sometime in 2023? Was it the April 2021 all-time high? Or the October 2021 all-time high? Or the November 2021 all-time high?

And at what price? $137,000? $250,000? $288,000? Higher?

Kevin Svenson decided to throw them all out, except one.

Kevin Svenson @KevinSvenson_

#Bitcoin 50w/SMA Analysis The Halving Cycle is the only cycle that actually exists. All other ideas are just theory and speculation. In terms of "time since halving" we are now at a spot where we'd normally cool off into lower lows before the next cycle.

April 12th 2022

50 Retweets221 Likes

I find a lot of credence in what he says, though I’m not sure even halving cycles matter anymore. For that reason, I created my own model for bitcoin's price: the "Up and to the Right (U2R)" model. 

Learn About the U2R Model

How to use the U2R model

Click on this chart:

When the new page opens, look at the black line on whatever date you want, then assume bitcoin's price will be somewhere at, above, or below that black line on that day. Any price within a shaded region represents a normal variance.

How to calculate the U2R model

I don’t know. Ask its creator, Mabonyi. It’s a public indicator on TradingView, specifically the "BTC Log Curve Zones Light" indicator projected over the Brave New Coin chart of bitcoin's price over time.

I tried to ask for permission to use it. He (she?) didn’t respond to my DM.

Mark, you’re kidding, right?

No. I’m dead serious. This is a model for predicting bitcoin’s price. How is it any less valid than any other model?

Bitcoin’s price has oscillated around that black line for its entire history. That has to count for something.

Does that mean you should make any decisions based on U2R?

No. 

Do I make decisions based on U2R?

No.

Should anybody make decisions based on U2R?

No.

Mark, why are you giving us models that don’t predict price or help us make decisions?

I’m just trying to fit in with the other analysts.

Before you dismiss U2R, recognize it’s held up well for 13 years. With data models breaking left and right, maybe U2R is the data model that finally works?

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

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