“Let’s have a drink in the metaverse,” Absolut tweeted last week, to promote their virtual Coachella experience.

We’re not sure it’s fun to drink virtual vodka with a virtual mouth, but… it’s possible! Cheers 🥂

In this issue: 

• Marketing mix modeling, explained
• Why SEO content skews long
• How freelancers self-promote

P.S. Raisin Bread is moving to monthly sends! See you in May 👋

EXPERT Q&A

When is marketing mix modeling most worthwhile? 

On the privacy-first web, it’s getting harder to spot impactful channels. 

Try to track clicks and conversions, and you’ll often overvalue bottom-of-funnel channels and undervalue discovery channels, The Information recently reported.

Marketing mix modeling (MMM) offers a bigger-picture approach. 

This type of statistical model accounts for relationships between two variables you know first-hand: channel-level spend and revenue over time. 

A growing number of tools, like Facebook’s free Robyn and SaaS platform Recast, help automate the MMM setup process.

But are insights from MMM worth the time and tinkering it takes to set up? Recast co-founder Michael Kaminsky told MarketerHire MMM is most likely to produce value when… 

You want to measure channel incrementality better. 

MMM can capture the incremental revenue impact of performance channels, like Facebook Ads, and less trackable channels, like linear TV, in an apples-to-apples way. 

So if you use multiple channels, each with different performance tracking capabilities, MMM can come in handy, Kaminsky explained. Done correctly, it minimizes bias towards bottom-of-funnel channels. 

You have strong historical data available. 

How much data you need, exactly, depends on what you’re selling and how it’s bought. 

The longer the consideration cycle for your sales, the more channels you use for marketing and the more precision you want from the model — the more historical data you need on… 

• How much revenue you brought in per day/week month 
• How much you spent on each of your marketing channels

You’re selling online and offline.

In 2015, Kaminsky started at Harry’s, a DTC men’s shaving brand, heavily invested in performance marketing.  

But then Harry’s started selling not just online, but through brick-and-mortar chains like Target and Walmart  and invested in harder-to-measure marketing, like podcast and TV ads.

“All of [the] machinery that we had built [for] tracking people across the internet no longer was very useful,” Kaminsky said. “The DTC business… was just one part of the total business.”

Media mix modeling helped Harry’s navigate the transition — and could also help… 

• DTC brands that open owned brick-and-mortar stores
• Legacy brands that open e-commerce shops
• Brands that sell via Amazon and other walled-garden e-comm channels 

Our takeaway?

MMM captures the big picture, relative impact of channels in a way channel-specific metrics just can’t — especially when you’re making sales online and off, and you have strong historical data on spend per channel. 

TWEET TREAT

Data + gut instinct > data

We’ve seen a lot of chatter about marketers trusting their guts lately.

Last week, SparkToro co-founder Rand Fishkin argued that empowering  marketers to trust their guts often outperforms fixating on provable marketing attribution.

This week, Alex P., creator of e-commerce newsletter No Best Practices, tweeted something similar. 

They’re not really against conversion data, though. They’re making more nuanced recommendations.

Don’t ignore conversion data, but do… 

• Hypothesize boldly based on past experience and insights (a.k.a. “reps”).

• Run tests that start small to find out if your hypotheses hold. Nik “The DTC Guy” Sharma told MarketerHire that this was his secret weapon during his stint at Hint Water: “We rarely did anything too big.”

• Track top-of-funnel metrics like views and engagement in addition to — or, at smaller companies, instead of? — conversions. “Free, vanity metrics are often good enough,” Fishkin wrote. 

Our takeaway?

Data won’t always tell the whole story. 

It can confirm or refute theories and highlight trends, but metabolizing performance data into actionable plans is a job for an experienced marketer —  like the vetted freelancers in MarketerHire’s network. 

SMALL BITES

TikTok ad revenue, the "say-do gap" and more... 

Google’s algo doesn’t boost long stories. So why does SEO content skew long? 

Report: The “say-do gap” calls customer survey data into question.

BlueOcean has raised $30M to build an AI-powered brand intelligence platform.

Branded podcasts cost $1M to $2M a pop — and they’re booming.

According to SMMs, these are the top 21 social media tools. 

Gmail has a left-leaning spam filter; Outlook’s skews more Republican.

Does a guitar look like a G? After 50 years, Guitar Center changed its mind. 

70% of consumers have spent money in the metaverse.

TikTok’s 2022 ad revenue could exceed Snapchat’s and Twitter’s combined.

Are TV media buyers done with Nielsen ratings?

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Plus, as a member of the MarketerHire community you’ll receive up to $500 in credit on top of your first capital advance.* Get started here!

*Offer expires at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. Receive up to $500 in credit towards your first Clearco capital advance. Credit is defined as a contribution against what is owed

DATA SNACK

3 insights on how freelancers use social media

What social platforms do freelancers use most for self-promotion? 

Facebook, but just barely. Plenty of other social platforms are coming for its throne, according to a Payoneer survey of 2,000 freelancers.

Here are our main takeaways from this data.

LinkedIn is just 1% behind Facebook for the top spot

From 2021 to 2022, LinkedIn almost caught up to Facebook as the most popular platform for promoting freelance businesses. 

As MarketerHire’s 2022 trend forecast foretold: the Great Resignation has been good for LinkedIn.

YouTube saw the biggest YoY growth 

YouTube’s popularity grew more than 50% YoY — we suspect because it has a whopping 2B+ monthly active users, and its recommendation algorithm makes it easier to get discovered there than, say, on Facebook.

The third most popular social channel is “none.” 

Makes sense, given that only 5% of respondents said they find the bulk of their work through social media. Instead, the vast majority (71%) find work through online marketplaces, where they can do more direct one-to-one outreach.

Our takeaway?

The social channels gaining popularity with freelancers offer something more than a massive user base — like a professional audience (LinkedIn) or discoverability (YouTube). 

But also: Social is burning people out. Lucky for freelance marketers, MarketerHire builds a client pipeline for you.

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