With 49 goals and 17 assists between them, it’s hard to look past Robert Lewandowski and Christopher Nkunku as the front runners for this season’s player of the year award.

Lewi, the runner-up for the Ballon d’Or has continued his fine goalscoring form under Julian Nagelsmann, leading the European Golden boot race by an insurmountable margin, whilst Christopher Nkunku is proving to be the latest example of French footballs superfluence of talent finding its way to the top. He has won the Bundesliga’s Player of the Month award more than any other player this season.

With our first candidate in touching distance of becoming the first player to take home the prestigious title 3 years in a row, and our second candidate hoping to become the youngest recipient since Kevin de Bruyne received this trophy in 2015, both Robert Lewandowski and Christopher Nkunku will be looking to make the absolute most out of these final 4 game weeks to sure up their candidacy.

As of today though, here is how we see the clash shaping up.

A Numbers Game

Though no longer on course to smash the ludicrous 41-goal record he set last season, Lewandowski’s 32 goals in 30 appearances are a testament to his relentless nature, and predatory instincts, as one of the best forwards to grace European football over the past decade.

At 33 the Polish international seems to be at the peak of his powers, and it cares repeating just how ludicrous it is that we even need to debate the fact that a player with more goals than appearances (in both the Champions League and Bundesliga) isn’t a shoe-in for the footballer of the year award.

Yet, that owes itself to the emergence of Christopher Nkunku as a contender to be taken seriously.

The Frenchman’s 17 goals and 15 assists means Lewandowski has accumulated just 3 more scorer points in the opening 29 matchdays, and across all of Europe no player has contributed more goals and assists this calendar year (19 in the Bundesliga, and 27 in all competitions).

The Verdict: Draw

From just the basic tally of direct contributions, it’s impossible to discern which of the two forwards has been more impactful this season.

Lewandowski has a slight quantitative advantage, however Nkunku is more varied in his contributions, and has been more impressive in recent months.

The Important Goal Scorer

With so little separating Nkunku and Lewandowski in terms of direct output, we need to dig deeper into the world of metrics to extract more information..

That’s where game state comes in; a process which can help us add additional value and relevance of impact to each goal. 

For example, goals which open the scoring or change the point distribution are heightened in value, whilst those which leave little more than a cosmetic effect on the scoreline (I.e the 6th in a 6:0 thrashing or a consolation goal late in extra time) no longer have an impact.

On face value, both Lewandowski and Nkunku are performing impressively, but it’s hard to look past the reigning Player of the Year when it comes to the impact of his strikes (below). 

46% of Lewandowski’s 33 goal contributions changed the state of a fixture, compared to just 41% of Nkunku’s. Nkunku can make up space with the fact that 3 of his goal or assist contributions ended up directly winning a game, but it's only when we look even deeper into the nature of the goals that we begin to see a fatal flaw in the argument supporting Lewandowski argument.

4 of his 15 game-changing strikes have come from the penalty spot - a crucial advantage over Nkunku who has taken, and converted, just one all season.

With Leipzig earning more spot kicks than any other side in the division (8), Nkunku has potentially lost out on 7 high-percentage chances, while 5 have been added to Lewandowski’s account.

We shouldn’t underestimate Lewandowski’s exceptional conversion rate - undoubtedly a product of talent and relentless practice hours  - but it’s nevertheless interesting to see how the tables turn significantly when we take penalties out of our assessment (below).

Nkunku is now level with Lewandowski for the number of game-changing goal contributions - despite playing almost 200 fewer minutes - whilst the French international has crucially pulled ahead in the number of times he's played his part in opening the scoreline or winning a match.

The Verdict: Christopher Nkunku

It’s extremely hard to attempt a verdict on who deserves to be credited for the category of the Best Bundesliga Player in the 2021/22 season, but for the sake of not offending the reader with another draw, I will lean towards Nkunku.

Others may have a different perspective on how to weigh penalty kicks, but the slight advantage Nkunku possesses when these are no longer applied, alongside the fact that the Frenchman could easily have 5-7 more goals were he to be given spot kick duty in Leipzig, prompts me to give “the Important Goal Scorer” category to Die Rotten Bullen’s #18.

The Ever-Present Contributor

Consistency is another major factor to consider when determining which of these two talents deserves to stand above the rest, and, despite just recently turning 24, Christopher Nkunku is showing the maturity required of an elite competitor.

Since gameweek 6 the Frenchman has only once gone two matches in a row without contributing a goal or assist, and in the UEFA Champions League he was the youngest player to score in at least 4 of the 6 group stage matches.

Were it not for a run of 5 matches at the beginning of the season during which Nkunku didn’t contribute, he could easily rival Robert Lewandowski. But, taking this into account, it’s impossible to look past the Polish international.

Since April 28, 2019, Lewandowski has never appeared in 3 or more Bundesliga matches without contributing at least one goal or assist.

With such a high standard of consistency, it’s hard for opposition defenders not to feel a sense of inevitability when the 33-year old finally slips one past the goal line.

Verdict: Robert Lewandowski

Whilst it’s important to acknowledge that Nkunku possesses remarkable maturity for a player just 24-years old, there simply isn’t a more consistent forward in Europe than Robert Lewandowski. Whether against FC Barcelona in the Champions League, or SSV Ulm in a preseason friendly, the Polish goal-machine always finds a way.

Irreplaceable Output

With 39% of Bayern’s goals, and 49% of Leipzig’s coming directly off a goal or assist from Lewandowski or Nkunku, it’s safe to say that both Bundesliga forwards are providing irreplaceable output for their respective side.

However, Nkunku being just shy of 50% is a particularly frightening sight.

In fact, amongst all the sides who have scored 50+ goals in one of Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, only Real Madrid is more reliant on a single contributor than RB Leipzig. And, it does not end there, with a startling comparison between Leipzig’s fortunes with or without an Nkunku goal contribution proving once and for all the club’s utter reliance on the Frenchman in attacking phases (below). 

Whereas Bayern’s success actually increases when Lewandowski doesn’t score (make of that what you will), when Nkunku fails to appear on the scoresheet Leipzig’s points per game slam to the floor.

Had Nkunku replicated his output in every game this season one could predictably model Leipzig to be less than 1 point off Bayern in first, while a non-existent Nkunku extended over 30 matchdays would have seen Leipzig pick up just 27.6 points - a fraction more than second-bottom Arminia Bielefeld.

Verdict: Christopher Nkunku

Though extending the sample size to last season does see FC Bayern’s output marginally drop off when Lewandowski doesn't contribute, the stark difference between RB Leipzig with and without Nkunku gives a clear impression of the Frenchman’s irreplaceable qualities in the squad Jesse Marsch inherited, and Domenico Tedesco refined.

A Wider Lens

So far we’ve only honed in on the primary strengths of these two Bundesliga forwards - scoring and creating chances. However, it’s also crucial that we take a more holistic look by identifying what their other responsibilities are within the larger team dynamic.

What becomes abundantly clear after just a rudimentary analysis is the substantially higher involvement Nkunku has in phases both in and out of possession. The Frenchman attempts and receives almost 10 more passes than Lewandowski, and completes 13.1 touches more per 90 (pictured below).

Whilst this shouldn’t come as a surprise given Nkunku’s position as a hybrid forward, it does show that the French international has far more responsibilities in Leipzig’s build up and controlled possession phases than the rather poacher-like Lewandowski.

The same trend is reflected to a lesser extent in a comparison of both players' roles out of possession. Not only does Nkunku make almost 3 times as many tackles & interceptions as Lewandowski, but the Frenchman’s defensive pressures are also through the roof compared to Lewandowski - once again completing almost twice as many as his Polish competitor.

The Verdict: Christopher Nkunku

Of all the categories explored so far, this is where we see the clearest advantage in favor of Christopher Nkunku emerge.

Whilst one could argue that Nagelsmann’s system and the talent around him allows Lewandowski to orient himself solely around scoring goals, the fact that Nkunku is  operating with extreme responsibility both in and out of possession, yet is still able to put up combined goal scoring and creative numbers roughly equal to that of Bayern’s number nine, shows why the Frenchman deserves to be in pole position for this end of season accolade.

Final Verdict

With a 4:2 advantage Christopher Nkunku wins out in this analysis, yet it would be far from a travesty if the honors had gone the other way. 

Despite bowing out of the Champions League quarter-finals for the second season running, Robert Lewandowski is still the top goalscorer in Europe, a shoe-in for the Bundesliga’s golden boot, and within a game of becoming the most decorated foreigner in Germany’s Bundesliga history.

While a DFB-Pokal and Europa League double could elevate Nkunku to a similar status, should the 24-year old walk away from this season without a single trophy, than it seems almost impossible to conceive of a world in which he can still earn the Player of the Year award ahead of Lewandowski.

Nevertheless, RB Leipzig can take solace from the fact that regardless where this season takes them, they still have one of the brightest prospects in Europe amongst their ranks.

Whether he ends up filling the accounts this summer with a massive European move, or remains in Saxony to truly make a push for the Bundesliga next season, RB Leipzig can undoubtedly proclaim to have had one of the Bundesliga’s biggest stars leading the line this season.

But who do you think deserves to be the Player of the Season in this year’s Bundesliga? Vote for your pick in a Twitter Poll Here!