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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red on the Earnings Calendar Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

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TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors.

BIG EARNINGS THIS WEEK: Very big names reporting this week. Normally the economic calendar rules the day. Not this week. Many of the names below can sway full indices. Be careful! To say this week will be uncertain is an understatement. McDonalds for example, has rebounded from it’s March low, whereas they announced the closing of their 850 locations there. Facebook/Meta completely shut down services in Russia. Same for Apple & many other names. Some companies are affected more than others, however cutting out Russia for many companies would be like cutting out the State of Texas. The following are the major companies reporting this week. It’s not a comprehensive list by no means, but for that you can refer to the earnings calendar above.

Raytheon, UPS, 3M, Lennox, Valero, OTIS, Activision, Visa, Texas Instruments, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, GM, GE, Waste Management, DR Horton, Archer Daniels Midland, Boeing, Facebook/Meta, PayPal, Ford, Qualcomm, Humana, Spotify, T-Mobile, O’Reilly, Twitter, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Mastercard, McDonalds, Roku, Nokia, Caterpillar, US Steel, Southwest, Merck, Gilead, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobile, Chevron, Bristol Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, Phillips 66, Honeywell.

FED INTEREST RATE DECISION NEXT WEEK: Wednesday next week at 2:00 PM we will know how much the Fed will be raising interest rates. Expect half a percent. If they had any sense it would be more.

NEXT BIG ECONOMIC NEWS: The next big data release on the economic calendar (above) will be durable goods orders next Tuesday. This report covers new orders for US manufactured durable goods (That’s goods that are expected to last for 3 years or longer). In short, these are not your one time use goods like food, gas, chemicals, toiletries, etc … but rather furniture, household appliances, machinery, etc. They are generally more expensive than your temporary goods & can often be a “one time,” or “once in a while,” purchase. When inflation bites you can generally see it first in the durable goods market. People tend to forgo large expensive purchases when everyday items increase … effectively depleting their spending power. Last month durable goods came in at -2.2% month over month (MoM). Consensus at the time was -0.5%, a 1.5% spread to the negative below analyst expectations. In the next report analyst expect a 1% increase MoM. A higher or lower than expected swing in new durable goods orders has the tendency to move markets.

Finally New Home Sales for March will be reported this Tuesday 10:00 ET. Analyst consensus is 776,000, slightly up from 772,000 the month prior. If we do in fact have a housing shortage, & I think we do, we should expect to see new home sales increase at a somewhat steady rate & existing home sales decrease. However, this market is hard to assess due to the fact that the average 30 year fixed interest rates are rapidly increasing (over 5% now). We should therefore expect some cooling in the housing market as rates go higher. Indeed increasing rates should be a disincentive to both building homes & apartments … which should make the housing situation worse. How so? People need a place to live. If folks aren’t taking out mortgages on new or existing homes, then they’re either renting, or living with someone else. And with such a high demand for housing leading to skyrocketing housing prices, rent’s ALSO increase. But what happens when the demand for rent increases as a result of no one wanting to take out a 5% interest rate on a 30 year fixed for a new or existing home? The answer is simple, … more expensive rent. And with home prices increasing, rents increasing, & interest rates increasing, people will pay more for their mortgage/rent which in turn leaves them less they can spend in the retail space. Housing inflation can often therefore be one of the largest destroyers of retail spending.

YESTERDAYS EARNING RESULTS VLVLY ACU AXP ALV AZZ CLF FHB GNTX HCA KMB NEM PBAM RF SLB VZ

Significant News Heading into 04.25.2022:

• Dow futures fall more than 200 points as Wall Street braces for a busy earnings week

• European markets fall sharply as global sell-off, China Covid concerns batter sentiment

• Greater Chinese markets lead losses with Shenzhen stocks falling 6%; oil slides 3%

• China’s capital city warns of more Covid cases and begins mass testing in the central business district

• The 10-year Treasury yield is getting closer to 3%. Here’s what that means for your money

• Treasury yields slump to start the week

• Coca-Cola earnings beat Wall Street estimates as revenue jumps 16%

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