The Optimism airdrop sparked community discussion around three major issues:

1. Expectation of price，sell or not?

2. Take the lead in launch token to inspire and attract, and whether Optimism eco can win?

3. Future airdrop trend: focus on quality?

This article we follow these three problems, simply spread out chat!

Expectation of price，sell or not?

After knowing specific airdrop quantity, everybody’s first reaction is OP price can reach how high?

$5, $1, $0.5, $0.2…

For the price expectations, we can provide two angles to assist us in valuation and pricing.

Optimism has previously raised three rounds of funding.

A $3.5 million seed round led by Paradigm and IDEO in 2020.

$25 million series A financing led by A16Z in 2021;

This year’s Series B round, co-led by Paradigm and A16Z, raised $150m at a valuation of $1.65bn.

First of all, if we take the valuation of round B financing as a reference, the initial total supply of OP is nearly 4.3 billion, so the token cost of round B is about $0.38.

If we take into account the comprehensive cost of early investors, 17% of the distribution of OP’s tokens is allocated to investors, while the total amount of financing in Optimism is about $178 million, which translates into a comprehensive cost of about $0.24 for early investors.

Then, it is time to think about the multiplier of the primary and secondary token cost premium, which varies from person to person. Ten times, five times, two times…

In view of the current market downturn and early circulation tokens are “no cost” airdrop tokens, so the secondary market can come out of such a multiple is not optimistic, the specific depends on the market sentiment of the token online and the buying of the dealer.

Nevertheless, the price range of $0.24 to $0.38 is a good reference as the bottom of a reasonable range.

Now, we take a different Angle and compare peer valuations using market capitalization & TVL and other indicators to try to get a reasonable valuation range.

Here, we directly quote the calculated data of CT KOL Olimpio, and we can get:

Based on the figure above, we can conclude that the pessimistic, moderate, optimistic and ecstatic prices of OP are $0.11, $0.46, $1.16 and $4.65, respectively.

Can Optimism Eco win ?

This Optimism is indeed a surprise, before the community tend to think Arbitrum will be The first L2 to launch token , especially its ecological activities in May.

However, in the face of the tepid environment, the community believes that this is a passive defensive measure and has no choice but to use the final coin issuing kit in advance.

In the current L2 four giants (Optimism, Arbitrum, StarkNet, zkSync), the latter two are more partial to ZK in terms of technology, at the same time, the main network has not been online, so we do not compare temporarily, only compare Optimism and Arbitrum.

Although at the beginning of the main network of Arbitrum just online, the basic is the world of rug, but now developed, also gradually born GMX, Treasure DAO, Dopex, Vesta and other native projects. The integration of top-up and withdrawal with the exchange has also been relatively complete.

In contrast, well-known projects in Optimism are mainly ecological projects of SNX (Lyra, Kwenta), and there are few original projects from 0 to 1. The problem may be that SushiSwap was unable to participate in the first batch of projects due to the somewhat strict whitelist mechanism adopted in its early stages.

While this can be done if Optimism wants to make amends, it’s not a sure-fire way to do it, since other L2 networks can do the same. But L2 is just getting started, and there are a lot of changes ahead, and it will be interesting to see how even Optimistic Rollup technology solutions will be challenged by ZK Rollup.

Future airdrop trend: focus on quality?

The distribution of air drop in Optimism is indeed a model. In the distribution of air drop tokens, the interests of both true and loyal users and early interaction experiencer are well taken into account, which can be said to achieve a satisfactory outcome. Meanwhile, the early interaction experiencer is also more determined about the possibility of the other THREE GIANTS of L2 airdrops. They also realized the importance of accurate breeding airdrop account .

In this Optimism airlift, for example, a user who satisfied all the options would get more than 30,000 OP, while a basic account would get nearly 730 OP, more than 40 times as much.

Current community, of course, also have some opposition, said airdrop is not conducive to your own product market fit (PMF), all participation behavior is based on the potential drop incentive, rather than the product itself brings the convenience and value, cannot be better to give positive feedback project products.

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