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TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors.

I AM BACK: Yeah, I was kind of kidnapped on my trip to the funeral. After the service we met at a reception at a family friends house who was gracious enough to host the reception (many miles away from where I left my laptop). My “ride” to, & from, the funeral was in no condition to drive so one thing led to another & I didn’t get a chance to start work again until this morning (I guess I need to learn how to drive a stick). Honestly I only looked at the markets once or twice & I kept my phone off as I visited friends & family. I did not have the heart nor the will power to tell folks that I needed to work, given that our attention rightfully belonged to mourning the deceased. I owed him that much.

LAST WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA: US GDP Consensus estimate was 1.1% QoQ. Actual QoQ GDP Growth Rate was -1.4%. Remember that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So what accounts for this? Well, the QoQ numbers a quarter ago came in at 6.9%. Obviously stimulus driven. Also remember how folks received half their child tax credit as a stimulus check? Well this means that money was spent last year, & not this year after tax season. Moreover less people are taking out mortgages & cash out refinancing given todays higher interest rates, which is a major driver of GDP growth. Finally, inflation is chipping away at peoples buying power. Expect this to continue.

Odd as it may be … the stocks on the buy list actually increased from market close last Thursday.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA: The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) will be reported today at 10:00 ET. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index that gives equal weighting to new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. In short, this measures growth in factory activity. Each factor is seasonally adjusted. Consensus estimate is currently 57.6. A dramatic deviation from that estimate will drive markets.

On Tuesday we have the JOLT Job Openings for March. Current consensus is 11.266m. A dramatic increase in job openings can mean that firms are having a tough time finding labor which can mean more inflation as they compete for but a limited labor pool. A dramatic decrease can mean companies are looking for less labor. At times when we should expect inflation to take its toll, it would not surprise me if this number comes in lower than expected.

There will be a lot of market moving data reported this Wednesday, but all eyes will be on the Fed’s interest rate decision at 2:00pm ET & the Fed Press Conference at at 2:30pm ET. Expect a half a percent rate hike & some clarification on unloading the balance sheet. If they had any sense it would be more than 0.5%, however this Fed is attempting to be as careful as they possible can in the hopes of a soft landing, & perhaps, so as to not to draw political ire prior to November midterms. I don’t know what a “soft landing” looks like … because it’s never been done. However the Fed is excellent at rocket like takeoffs when they want to stimulate the economy.

Significant News Heading into 05.02.2022:

• Stock futures are higher after the Nasdaq posts worst month since 2008

• Asia-Pacific stocks lower as data show Chinese factory activity contracted in April

• European stocks slide after weak China data, Wall Street sell-off; UK market closed

• U.S. Treasury yields start May higher as traders look ahead to Fed meeting

• Chip supply issues are still giving some of world’s biggest companies a major headache

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 6 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 2 Options Strategies

• 25 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist 5 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) 4 Stocks on the short possibilities list

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