Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The recession jitters

Bloomberg Evening Briefing

While 2022 was the worst year for equities since the Great Recession, this one isn’t looking that great either—at least not right now. The recession many on Wall Street say will come this year would be one of the most anticipated ever, in part because more than a few have been predicting it since last summer. Bloomberg has now combed through 500 prognostications from top strategists, and the current consensus seems to be a mild downturn on both sides of the Atlantic in 2023. But the Federal Reserve has said there’s only a 50-50 chance of a recession and Goldman Sachs says a soft landing remains possible. When it comes to calling things like contractions and peak inflation, it seems nobody is getting it right. Here’s your markets wrap

Here are today’s top stories

Tesla shares slid over 14%—the most since 2020—after the EV carmaker missed its third straight delivery estimate, despite offering hefty incentives in its biggest markets. The company opened two new assembly plants last year and still came up short of its goal to expand by 50%. A new analysis by Bloomberg reveals Tesla’s pricing secret

Just as US regulators issued their sternest warning on crypto yet, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty to charges related to the collapse of his crypto exchange. The 30-year-old ex-CEO is set to face a trial in October. 

China vowed to retaliate against nations that placed restrictions on its travelers as an unprecedented Covid-19 outbreak washes over the country. The European Union as well as the US and other nations moved to require a  negative coronavirus test from China travelers in the aftermath of Xi Jinping’s sudden abandonment of his “Covid zero” policy. The surge has escalated fears a new variant of omicron driving the China wave could create a surge elsewhere.

Healthcare workers collect Covid-19 test samples at Narita International Airport in Japan. Japan is requiring negative Covid-19 test results for travelers coming from China. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

After a Ukrainian missile strike killed dozens, if not hundreds, of Russian soldiers, Moscow may turn to more Iran-made drones in its war. Kyiv contends the Kremlin may increase attacks across the country during the Orthodox Christmas holiday later this week. Meanwhile, Germany indicated it would support seizing billions of dollars in Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine. 

Longtime House leader Kevin McCarthy is struggling to find enough votes to become Speaker as a razor-thin Republican majority takes over the US House of Representatives. McCarthy faces staunch opposition from the party’s far-right members and has lost three rounds of voting. The House hasn’t voted for a Speaker in multiple rounds in 100 years. 

US Representative Kevin McCarthy of California Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

British rail workers walked off the job Tuesday, paralyzing transport and adding to the troubles piling up for Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Union workers will strike for five days, snarling the usual return to work following the holidays and interrupting January sales that are crucial for retailers. The protests stem from growing anger that wages haven’t kept pace with inflation. Nurses and ambulance drivers plan to strike later in the month, too.

Susan Collins, who made history in July when she became the first Black woman to lead a regional US Federal Reserve bank, was a kid spending summers with family in Jamaica when she got some introductory lessons in topics that would reappear through her professional career: inequality, foreign-exchange crises and the real-life effects of monetary policy

Susan Collins Photographer: Vanessa Leroy

Bloomberg continues to track the global coronavirus pandemic. Click here for daily updates.

 What you’ll need to know tomorrow

It’s the New Year: Time to Plan Your Vacation

After two years of Covid-related restrictions, travel in 2022 rebounded nearly to pre-pandemic levels. And in 2023, it’s only expected to grow. Total tourism spending this year is already projected to exceed $1.4 trillion dollars globally, and may surpass even 2019 levels. From Oslo to Japan, here’s where to book your tickets.

An onsen in Beppu on Kyushu. Photo courtesy of Kyushu Tourism Organization

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