March 01, 2023 | Read Online

The NFL Draft and 'Preference Falsification'

The only remedy for avoiding this bias lies in the process of obtaining the information and cross-checking the facts.

If you Google "NFL Mock Draft," 4.9 million results pop up in less than a second. NFL fans are infatuated with the event that all started in 1958 accidentally.

Bob Kelley, then the voice of the Los Angeles Rams and a long-time radio personality, wrote that after the draft, which was held in January, the team immediately started looking toward the following year.

“Then, in June, the Rams will stage a ‘mock draft,'” Kelley wrote. “They will pretend they are going into a regular draft meeting and will rate–in order–the top 300 players in the country.”

From that simple exercise, the mock draft craze took flight.

This week, the NFL is holding its scouting convention, and "Draftniks" from all over will watch, review and fine-tune their predictions. Their effect on picks might seem minuscule, but they surprisingly hold some power over the decision-making process of NFL teams.

Timur Kuran is not a draftnik, nor a mock draft creator. He's a Duke University professor who has developed a cognitive bias theory called preference falsification, which refers to the idea of misrepresenting private beliefs and thoughts in public.

Kuran's theories apply to any decision-making process with social media coverage. Thoughts and behaviors can often be attributed to the discomfort that comes with holding a minority opinion and the social pressure to conform in a group setting.

In essence, if a mock draft has a player as a top-10 pick, even if a team believes his talent doesn't match, the pressure from outside forces creates doubt — causing the franchise to alter its beliefs and conform to an overwhelming "non-professional evaluation."

In his book "Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification," Kuran writes that when faced with real or imagined social pressure, people will “deliberately project a contrived opinion.”

This is exactly what happens in every draft room across the country and ultimately impacts the chances of having a successful draft.

One of the main reasons that people tend to adapt or conform to the beliefs of others, Kuran believes, is that they lack reliable information. Thus, "the only sensible reaction" is to conform.

Teams fall prey to this because they haven't really put in the work or asked "What do they know that we don't?"

The only remedy for avoiding this bias lies in the process of obtaining information and cross-checking the facts. In short, trust no one and work harder to find the right information.

Selecting the right talent takes a talented leader willing to acknowledge his/her existing biases while working hard to prevent them from inhibiting their process.

When making decisions on procuring talent, being on the side of the majority isn't always the right solution.

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