The Bundesliga may have its best title race in more than a decade, but the 5-way battle between FC Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Union Berlin, RB Leipzig, and SC Freiburg shouldn’t distract us from the even tighter struggle against the drop. 

For the first time in Bundesliga history, 4 teams are level on points at the bottom of the table this late in a season. Even the gap between 14th and 18th reads only 1 point. 

*The two sides in 17th and 18th after 34 matchdays will be automatically relegated to the second Bundesliga. The side that finishes in 16th will play a two-legged playoff against the side that finished 3rd in the Zweite Bundesliga. 

With a single victory capable of completely changing one’s fortunes, we take this week’s newsletters to go deep into the relegation battle. We look at where each club has what it takes to stay in the top flight, and where they must still improve to maintain a fighting chance. 

Hertha BSC

Why they will stay up

Hertha BSC may never fulfill their promise to become the “big-city” club challenging for European titles, but it seems like in Sandro Schwarz, they have finally found a manager with a clear blueprint both in and out of possession.

This is the most coherent and mature Hertha have probably performed since the beginning of 2020, and Schwarz’s side have occasionally shown that they are capable of truly impressive football. 

The stats also reflect a positive improvement. 

Compared to last season, Hertha are registering more shot-creating actions, touches in the final third, expected goals, and key passes per game. 

This proactive approach hasn’t always been rewarded, but it’s beginning to bear fruit in the new year. 

In Hertha’s last 4 Bundesliga matches, the capital club have scored 8 goals. That’s a significant boost after managing just 20 goals in the first 19 matchdays.

Perhaps even more important than the goals themselves is how the entire squad has played their part in putting the ball in the net. 

6 different players have contributed to Hertha’s 8 goals in the new year, a far cry from what was a complete reliance on Dodi Lukebakio in the pre-World Cup period. 

The 25-year-old Belgian winger had a direct hand in 47% of the goals Hertha scored in the first 15 matchdays, an over-reliance which has luckily ironed itself out in the new year.

Why they will go down

It’s hard not to draw parallels to HSV when viewing the current situation at Hertha BSC. 

This is their 4th consecutive season in a relegation battle, the club is poisoned with turmoil behind the scenes, and the squad is filled with veterans whose wages do little to reflect their impact on the pitch. 

We mentioned that Schwarz’s attacking blueprint has begun to bear fruit, but it shouldn’t distract us from the fact that Hertha remain extremely susceptible to defensive collapse. 

Only VfL Bochum have conceded more goals this season, and since the start of last season (2020/21) Hertha have conceded 3 or more goals on 18 occasions. 

From the lack of pace in the backline to the susceptibility on set pieces, it feels like it has never been easier to score a goal against Hertha than during the last 12 months. 

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TSG Hoffenheim

Why they will stay up

There is good reason for the shock that has accompanied TSG Hoffenheim’s participation in the relegation battle. 

The side coached by Pellegrino Matarazzo should, on paper, have far too much quality to go down into the second Bundesliga. 

They have a former World Cup finalist (Andrej Kramarić), a fullback who was amongst the best in the world two seasons ago (Angeliño), and countless young talents who wouldn’t look out of place in a Champions League outfit. 

Even in regard to Bundesliga experience, this side doesn’t come up short. 

Only Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern have a squad with more topflight experience, while amongst all active players, only Thomas Müller and Manuel Neuer have made more appearances in the Bundesliga than Hoffenheim’s captain Oliver Baumann. 

Why they will go down

Spiraling out of form would be an understatement for the radical turn of events in Sinsheim. 

In Mid-October, Hoffenheim were one win behind FC Bayern and on course for the Champions League. In the ensuing 13 matchdays, Die Kraichgauer have only picked up 2 more points to see them drop all the way down 16th. 

It’s been 142 days since Hoffenheim’s last win in the Bundesliga, with every other topflight club picking up at least 5 more points in this time frame. 

Even from a historical perspective, this run of form is absolutely horrific. 

In 15 years in the Bundesliga, Hoffenheim have never gone longer without a win, while Matarazzo’s side needs to only lose three more games to level Hannover 96’s record for the most consecutive losses to start the Bundesliga Rückrunde. 

While the level of talent should still be able to win Bundesliga games through sheer individual brilliance, the stats lay bare just how dire the situation has become for a club that went into the season with aspirations to return to Europe. 

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VfB Stuttgart

Why they will stay up

VfB Stuttgart may not be winning a lot of games this season, but one thing Die Schwaben can rely upon is their ability to keep in a contest until the bitter end. 

Only FC Köln have drawn more matches in the 2022/23 Bundesliga, while October’s 5:0 drubbing against Borussia Dortmund was the only time this season where Stuttgart lost a Bundesliga fixture by more than 2 goals. 

It’s clearly fine margins that are keeping Stuttgart down, and the underlying numbers do their part in reflecting what the eye can see. 

According to Understat’s expected points model (an expansion upon expected goals that compares the expected goals of both sides in a fixture and determines the expected winner), Stuttgart should have 11 more points to their name after 23 matchdays.

Not only does this account for the third largest under-performance of any club in Europe’s top 5 leagues, but it shows what better finishing and a bit more defensive luck could do for Stuttgart’s season. 

Were Stuttgart to fall in line with the expected points model, Die Schwaben would be firmly mid-table, closer to qualifying for the Champions League than slipping into the relegation zone. 

Why they will go down

Losing star forwards Nicolás González and Saša Kalajdžić less than a year apart was always going to be a hard pill to swallow. Stuttgart have learned the hard way how difficult it is to compensate for the loss of proven goalscorers.

While only Bayern and Dortmund are creating more shots per game in the Bundesliga, it is Stuttgart’s inability to capitalize on these opportunities which have seen them pulled back into another relegation battle. 

Despite taking more shots per game than in their impressive 9th place finish two years ago, Stuttgart need more than 11 shots to score a goal this season - a colossal 4 shots more than in 2020/21!

And it isn’t just the loss of proven goalscorers which have seen Stuttgart slide down the table, but the general transfer policy has allowed the squad that over-performed in 2020 to be almost completely dismantled 2 seasons later. 

Only 4 of the 9 players who played at least 50% of Stuttgart’s Bundesliga minutes in 2020/21 still remain at the club. 

This constant reinvention has put a lot of strain on key performers, while Stuttgart’s position as a selling club has had the propensity to see financial interests take priority to footballing ones. 

Schalke 04

Why they will stay up

Borussia Dortmund are the team of the moment in the Bundesliga right now. Die Schwarz-Gelben are level with FC Bayern atop the table and are the only team in Europe’s top 5 leagues who have yet to drop a point in the new year. 

Yet, it isn’t just Dortmund who are making waves in the Ruhrgebiet, but their local rivals Schalke have also come out of nowhere to reignite hopes of survival. 

Just over a month ago, Die Königslbauen were 7 points away from safety, but now, 6 game weeks later, only an inferior goal difference is keeping them from clawing out of the bottom 3. 

Schalke have lost none of their last 6 matches in the Bundesliga, conceding only one goal in the process!

In all of Europe, no side has conceded fewer goals in their last 6 league matches, a testament to the winter arrivals, and the strong coaching from Thomas Reis. 

The ex-Bochum manager has added much-needed structure by deploying two defensive midfielders, while Celtic loanee Moritz Jenz has been absolutely colossal in the up-turn of form in the coal mining region. 

The 23-year-old German centerback arrived shortly after Schalke shipped 6 goals against RB Leipzig, and immediately brought stability, leadership, and consistency to the S04 defense.

Whereas Schalke averaged 2.4 goals conceded per game in the 17 matches that preceded Jenz’s arrival, since he has entered the team, Die Königsblauen are conceding only .16 goals per game. 

Why they will go down

Schalke 04 may have learned how to not lose matches in the Bundesliga, but turning draws into wins still seems like an extremely difficult task for Die Königsblauen. 

In Europe’s top 5 leagues, only Sampdoria have scored fewer goals than Schalke, and on 11 different occasions, Die Königsblauen have left the pitch without scoring a goal. 

It’s not for a lack of trying - Schalke have taken the 8th most shots in the division - but the West-German outfit’s wastefulness is truly something to be marveled at. 

On average, every 18th shot that Schalke takes turns into a goal - a figure which even Bayern would struggle to compete for Europe with. 

Since the Bundesliga began recording shooting statistics in 2016, no side has ever needed more shots for a goal than Schalke. 

It is a truly worrying statistic given that the Bundesliga side with the worst shot-per-goal average ended up getting relegated in 5 of the last 6 campaigns. 

VfL Bochum

Why they will stay up

Of all the sides in the relegation battle, VfL Bochum have the least to lose. 

For the club, relegation was always taken into consideration when drawing up the finances. For the players, just playing in the Bundesliga is an unforgettable opportunity that few could have imagined coming this late in their careers. 

The fact that, unlike anyone else around them, the squad won’t feel the weight of expectant fans, and a club on the brink of collapse, means that Bochum can approach this relegation battle with a free mind and purely focus on the football. 

And, while wins have proven hard to come by, Bochum are clearly capable of upsetting even the biggest clubs in this top-flight campaign. 

They have beaten both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt this season, and of Bochum’s 19 points, 16 have been taken at home. 

Should things truly come down to the wire and be decided on the final matchday, fans and players alike can take solace from the fact that the final fixture against Bayer Leverkusen will be played at the Ruhrstadion. 

Why they will go down

VfL Bochum are the prototype of a soon-to-be relegated side. 

They came up to the Bundesliga last season as complete outsiders and over-performed with a tiny budget and combative playstyle. 

While they ended up comfortably staying up, this off-season saw the West German outfit lose numerous key players. Bochum were either unable to turn important loans into permanent deals, or they were incapable of retaining personnel amidst more competitive offers from other topflight clubs. 

In total, 6 players who registered more than 1,400 minutes in the 2021/22 Bundesliga are no longer at the club.

This turmoil has had a lasting impact on Bochum’s goal scoring - they have registered 9 fewer goals than at the same point last season - but it's in defense where the biggest issues have amounted. 

Countless individual errors and a lack of leadership in central defense have left Bochum spiralling down to the Bundesliga 2. 

They have conceded only 5 fewer goals than Greuther Fürth at the same point last season, and the fact that 6 different centerbacks have started a Bundesliga fixture shows how little this squad can be relied on to regularly compete in the topflight. 

Simply put, Bochum lacks the quality of a topflight outfit, and only a miracle will see them pick up enough points in the remaining 11 matchdays, to climb out of the relegation zone.

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The Verdict

Every club in the relegation battle is in with a fighting chance this season. 

It lends itself to an extremely entertaining final stretch in the Bundesliga, but also one which will prove extremely difficult to predict. 

I’ll do my best. 

VfL Bochum seems like the side likeliest to drop down to the Zweite Bundesliga. The squad doesn’t have the level of talent to remain competitive, and 4 successive defeats without scoring a goal show that the early rise of form under Thomas Letsch may have worn off. 

Following them in a direct relegation spot is where things begin to get tricky. 

VfB Stuttgart has a level of consistency that sees them always remain competitive, but if Schalke maintains their current level of form, they will be out of the relegation battle in no time. 

And we haven’t even mentioned Sandro Schwarz’s Hertha BSC, or the mess at TSG Hoffenheim!

After much hesitation, I’ll go with VfB Stuttgart in 17th. 

The South German outfit have been playing with fire in the transfer market, and the combination of inconsistent goal threats and fragility in defense lends itself to a season ending in relegation. 

Schalke will go in 16th.

I trust them to at least maintain a certain level of consistency in defense, but their final 3 matches worry me where they face FC Bayern away, Eintracht Frankfurt at home, and RB Leipzig away. 

One would hope for a healthy buffer by the time matchday 32 rolls around. 

And finally, scraping through are Hertha BSC and TSG Hoffenheim. 

Hertha’s squad are still in need of a massive overhaul, but there are signs of maturity in what Hertha are looking to bring to the pitch this season. With Marco Richter fully fit, Dodi Lukebakio buying into Schwarz’s coaching, and Lucas Tousart playing his best football since signing in Berlin, they should have just enough to stay away from any of the relegation spots.

At Hoffenheim, I am banking on the individual quality to come good.

There is only so long that players like Kramarić, Baumgartner, Angeliño, Dolberg, and Geiger won’t spark into form, and with a healthy combination of experience and talent, they should have enough to get out of this mess.