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Tesla’s tumble, a glut of chips, and the history that never was |

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Today's big stories

  1. Tesla started the price war, but it's getting beaten at its own game
  2. Morgan Stanley named its top stock picks for the coming years – Read Now
  3. Micron predicted a brighter future, but profit looks pretty gloomy in the meantime

Electric Chargeback

Electric Chargeback

What’s Going On Here?

Tesla started a price war it couldn’t win in the world’s biggest car market – and it seems to have backfired big time.

What Does This Mean?

Tesla thought it found the key to unlock China's massive car market by initiating a price-slashing spree in the EV realm. But instead of revving up sales, the "nuclear" strategy sparked an industry-wide price war that seems to have backfired for the electric trailblazer. See, Chinese EV enthusiasts have been switching gears and choosing Warren-Buffett-backed BYD's sleek, wallet-friendly rides over Tesla's pricier stallions. That’s seen BYD sell a jaw-dropping five times more cars than Tesla in China in January and February. And with the Chinese firm’s first-quarter sales predicted to jump by 80% – after a profit boost of over 400% in 2022 – Tesla could be in for even more high-voltage competition.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Buying local.
One way that BYD keeps prices so low and tempting is through its well-oiled supply chain, from mines to batteries and chips. And it's not just BYD: Chinese customers have been taking note of foreign brands' hefty price tags compared to local carmakers across the board, leading them to embrace homegrown offerings. That could be why one clued-in consultancy thinks 2023 will be the year that local brands finally overtake their foreign counterparts in China.

Zooming out: Pedal to the metal.
Tesla might want to rev up sales in the Chinese car market, but it’s trying to reverse its dependence on the country’s supply chains. See, China mines two-thirds of the world’s rare earth metals, and they’re prone to wild price swings (due in part to their vulnerability to trade tussles with the West). But Elon's EV empire isn't spinning its wheels: Tesla's already trimmed its use of rare earths by a quarter in Model 3 and Model Y cars, and upcoming models are said to be even leaner on those precious resources.

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Analyst Take

Morgan Stanley Says Buy These Stocks For A New Bull Market

Morgan Stanley Says Buy These Stocks For A New Bull Market

By Paul Allison, Analyst

If you invest in “quality” stocks, you’re probably always on the lookout for companies that generate a lot of profit relative to the size of their assets – and do that in a sustainable, expanding way. 

Luckily, researchers at Morgan Stanley may have just made your hunt a little easier – with their “30 for 2025” stocks list

They devised an 11-point checklist based on the kinds of characteristics that traditional quality investors watch for – and they scored 30 quality-oriented companies against each. 

And the ones that ranked highest are probably not the ones you might think.

That’s today’s Insight: a look at the surprising top three companies in Morgan Stanley’s “30 for 2025” stock list.

Read or listen to the Insight here

SPONSORED BY REAL VISION

The Coachella of finance

Coachella could guarantee some Instagram likes, but it won’t teach you anything about investing.

That doesn’t sound like a good time at all, if you ask us. But instead, you could swap the desert for the comfort of your own couch by joining Real Vision’s 2023 Festival Of Learning.

There, you’ll meet thousands of like-minded attendees online, and get access to live masterclasses from world-class investors and thinkers.

Sure, you won’t catch Beyoncé, but you’ll mingle with financial rock stars like Raoul Pal, Tom Bilyeu, Denise Shull, Mish Schneider, Jim O’Shaughnessy, and many more.

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Check It Out

Memory Loss

Memory Loss

What’s Going On Here?

Memory chip maker Micron is still in a slump, but its upbeat forecast hinted at a potential turnaround on the horizon.

What Does This Mean?

Micron's memory chips are the unsung heroes of our devices, keeping the data flowing seamlessly in phones and computers. But because the firm’s chips are virtually indistinguishable from competitors' offerings, their prices are particularly vulnerable to swings in demand. And that’s exactly what’s happened lately: orders have fallen off a cliff and supply’s still riding relatively high, so memory chip prices have plunged. And that meant even Micron's increased shipments couldn't save it from shrinking revenue last quarter, as prices plunged by around 20%.

Micron’s holding out hope and betting that demand will outpace supply this year – but the company’s still on track for its largest loss since going public in 1984. How swiftly it recovers depends on whether the industry as a whole follows Micron’s example, slashing production in a bid to shore up prices.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Surfing the artificial wave.
Micron's long-term hopefulness isn't totally dependent on what its competitors do: AI’s also a player. The firm’s predicting a memory-chip-market bonanza in 2025, powered by the emerging smart tech. And that’s not a wild prediction: memory chip demand is set to surge as more contenders enter the fray, and AI servers need over three times the capacity of old-school ones. You can almost imagine the dollar signs in Micron’s eyes.

The bigger picture: Problematic policy.
The US remains a global powerhouse in advanced chip design, but its market share has nosedived from 37% in 1990 to a meager 12% today. And while the government’s injecting $52 billion into the sector, throwing money at the problem probably isn't enough: policy changes are also needed. Skilled worker shortages and burdensome red tape – like environmental regulations and planning permission processes – are driving up production time and costs, making Asia a more attractive production hub.

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“Fear makes strangers of people who should be friends.”

– Shirley MacLaine (an American actress)
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🔮 Future of Finance: Waking Up To The Retail Investor (London): 6.30pm, April 12th
💸 Should You Save Your Cash Or Invest?: 1pm, April 13th
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🎉 Modern Investor Summit 2023: 12pm, December 5th and 6th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. The history that never was. Pranksters are using AI to create records of fake historical events.
  2. Body blunders. Here’s what the way you sit really says about you.
  3. Cash-stuffing smarts. This Texan turned her stimulus check into $850,000.
  4. Stranger Novels. Teen actor Millie Bobby Brown has written a book.
  5. A diet of breadcrumbs. This is one key sign you’re dealing with a narcissist.
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