Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Tough time to buy

While America’s resilient labor market gets the most attention, real estate shouldn’t get short shrift when it comes to analyses of inflation and the broader economy. From a housing shortage to the reshaping of the commercial real estate sector, there’s plenty to consider. Commercial property owners, particularly of office buildings, are struggling to pay debt as borrowing costs surge, leading to negotiations with lenders and defaults. The Federal Reserve is counting on falling rental prices to help drive disinflation over the rest of the year, but there are signs that might not happen as quickly as policymakers want. Howard Hughes, the Texas-based real estate developer, said 48 lenders rejected bidding on a new apartment project near Houston despite strong demand for rentals. For would-be home buyers, affording that goal can be out of reach because of an inventory shortage and mortgage rates that have more than doubled since the start of the pandemic.

Then there’s the $1.5 trillion Federal Home Loan Bank system, which instead of helping everyday home buyers secure mortgages is increasingly a backstop for banks taking all kinds of risks. Meantime, homeowners with a mortgage lost a small amount of equity last quarter, marking the first annual decline since 2012. But as always, there’s plenty of upside opportunity for the biggest players. Blackstone has reaped billions of dollars from urban warehouses. For those who want to buy a home, waiting it out might be the best course with US apartment construction at a record pace. “If forced to make a decision, renting for another year is probably the soundest financial decision in most cases,” Conor Sen writes in Bloomberg Opinion. “I just wouldn’t expect buying to be any easier next year.”

Donald Trump is to appear in Miami federal court next week to face almost 40 counts over his possession of and refusal to return highly classified documents, the first time a former president has been charged with federal crimes. A grand jury charged him with willful retention of national defense information, corruptly concealing documents, conspiracy to obstruct justice and making false statements. Special Counsel Jack Smith said the files included “information regarding defense and weapons capabilities” of the US and foreign countries,US nuclear programs, “potential vulnerabilities of the US and its allies to military attack” and “plans for possible retaliation in response to foreign attack.” Trump has denied wrongdoing. While the case may upend the 2024 presidential race, many Republicans and even some of Trump’s 2024 rivals were quick to defend him. Noah Feldman sketches out in Bloomberg Opinion possible scenarios for Trump’s presidential run under indictment, including whether a victorious Trump could pardon himself or even serve as president while under house arrest in the White House. 

Ukraine said Russia blew up a giant dam and unleashed an environmental catastrophe, flooding the Dnipro River as Ukraine’s counteroffensive gets underway. Russia has denied responsibility, though several of Ukraine’s NATO allies accused Vladimir Putin of a war crime. Russia’s elite, meantime, is souring on Putin’s war, with even the most optimistic seeing a “frozen” conflict as the best available outcome now. 

A local resident rides on a boat during an evacuation from a flooded area in Kherson, Ukraine. Photographer: ALEKSEY FILIPPOV/AFP

The orange haze that drifted from Canada’s worst-ever wildfires to the US is a reminder “that the effects of rising temperatures will be universally felt,” Mark Gongloff writes in Bloomberg Opinion. While the air in the US is clearing in some places, the smoke and stench created dystopian scenes from Massachusetts to South Carolina, areas unfamiliar with this type of pollution. Meanwhile in the sunny Caribbean, a region where China is making increasing inroads and leaders have felt neglected by the US, Vice President Kamala Harris committed $100 million to address security and climate change.

Pedestrians pass near One World Trade Center in New York City this week amid a smoky haze from wildfires in Canada. Photographer: Julie Jacobson/AP

General Motors said it will adapt its electric vehicles to Tesla’s Superchargers, following Ford’s lead and all but ensuring Tesla chargers will become the industry standard in the US. China launched acampaign to boost EV adoption in rural areas. Then there’s the struggle to electrify one of the world’s dirtiest industries: construction. Expanding sustainably will require a radical reshaping of how structures are built—and hard decisions as to whether they get built at all.

New York has leapfrogged Hong Kong as the world’s most expensive city to live in as an expat, while skyrocketing rents saw Singapore burst into the top five. In Portugal, which lured thousands of Americans to live given its cheap real estate, tax advantages and relaxed lifestyle, the honeymoon is over. If just traveling abroad is more your speed, here are some hacks to consider before you board that next (pricey) flight.  

Carrie Lane stayed in Portugal three months before she moved back to Minnesota. Photograph: Bloomberg

• The Fed is expected to pause rate hikes and Janet Yellen testifies.
• The central banks of Europe and Japan hold monetary policy meetings.
• UBS completes Credit Suisse takeover, CS shares delisted.
• China industrial production, retail sales amid calls for more stimulus.
• The 76th Tony Awards are held, hosted by Ariana DeBose.

On her first day in office, Italy’s right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, renamed the country’s economic development department as the “Industry and Made in Italy Ministry.” Though at first blush it appeared a bureaucratic tweak, it was a statement of intent by Italy’s first female prime minister of her plan to introduce what some have dubbed a nationalist vision for corporate Italy—one that views dozens of state-owned companies as a way to cement power and drive change in the economy.

Italy’s right-wing leader Giorgia Meloni must decide whether to opt out of China deal as she looks to drive change in the economy through state-owned companies. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg

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