Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The big one

In the most serious prosecution leveled against him yet, a federal grand jury in Washington has accused Donald Trump of crimes related to his efforts to block the transfer of power to Joe Biden following the Democrat’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. It’s the third indictment of the Republican this year, and potentially not the last. Trump was charged with conspiracy to defraud the US, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights. The charges, sought by Special Counsel Jack Smith, could bring the 2024 presidential candidate as many as 20 years in prison upon conviction. —David E. Rovella

Yesterday we told you how some on Wall Street expressed trepidation at making big bets on the last day of July. With every day bringing positive data for the US economy and markets on a stratospheric trajectory, some suspected August would bring a reality check. Well on the first day of the month, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus lifted his target, saying the S&P 500 index may hit 4,900 by the end of the year. The declaration came just one day after famous Morgan Stanley bear Michael Wilson modulated his own, usually pessimistic outlook. Wall Street has been blindsided by the resilience of the economy, not to mention the sudden emergence of an artificial intelligence-driven tech rally. Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert also shifted to the bull camp as he raised his target to reflect the higher probability of a soft landing. A month ago, he was saying the S&P 500 rally would peter out. “The near-term hurdles we envisioned headed into the third quarter are now behind,” Chronert wrote in note to clients late Friday. “These new targets will be perceived as chasing the year-to-date move in the S&P 500.”

How could so many economists be so wrong? In 2019, while working as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve, Claudia Sahm published a measure to show when the US has fallen into a recession. What came to be known as the Sahm Rule is elegant in its simplicity and has been praised for its accuracy. It holds that the economy is contracting when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage point relative to the low point during the previous 12 months. As of June, Sahm’s indicator was nowhere near the threshold. As the US continues to defy a year of incorrect recession forecasts, Sahm has become part of   growing number of economists who concede that the economy is headed for a soft landing—meaning Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s interest-rate hikes will succeed in subduing inflation without a downturn that causes unemployment to spike. Sahm says there’s never been a more pressing time for economists to be humble. “Everyone who is a macroeconomist, including myself, has made some very big errors thinking about the economy since the pandemic showed up,” she says. 

Claudia Sahm Photographer: Jared Soares

Some 28 million US borrowers will soon need to start payments on federal student debt after a three-year pause. Loan servicers, consumer advocates and lawmakers are warning that the system is ill equipped to handle the deluge.

A gravity-defying rally in electric vehicle startup Nikola is showing no signs of stopping, as the company’s latest efforts to conserve cash and secure funds reignites a fervor for the stock. Shares of the EV maker—once seen as a potential contender against Tesla—have gained nearly 50% in just three sessions amid a string of positive news. Another meme favorite had a good day as well. Tupperware Brands has been warning for months that it may go bust, but that isn’t keeping retail investors away from powering an eye-popping rally.

Poland will send more troops to protect its border with Belarus and has summoned the country’s envoy in Warsaw to protest what it described as the violation of its airspace by two Belarusian helicopters on Tuesday. The Foreign Ministry called on the Russian ally to “immediately and in detail” explain the incident, which it said was an element of the escalation of border tensions between the two countries. Those tensions have been growing after Wagner mercenary forces moved into Belarus under a deal ending the aborted mutiny last month by the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned on Saturday that some of the fighters may attempt to infiltrate his country alongside illegal migrants. The Defense Ministry also said it has notified NATO.

A Polish Army soldier during NATO exercises in Zagan, Poland, in 2015.  Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Europe

A military junta overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in early 2021. Since then, its forces have killed thousands of civilians as the coup’s leaders face an increasingly assertive rebellion. On Tuesday, the junta pardoned former leader Aung San Suu Kyi for some of the offenses it had accused her of, though she will remain in prison. 

Rhino poaching is on the decline in South Africa, but new fronts are rapidly opening up as illegal hunters kill increasing numbers of the endangered animals in the coastal KwaZulu-Natal province and in private reserves.

Wild white rhinos in South Africa Photographer: Luca Sola/AFP/Getty Images

• Singapore prime minister to address political scandals in parliament.
• Brazil beat the world to rate hikes. Now it’s leading on rate cuts.
• Goldman Sachs analyst found dead in a New York City creek.
• Apollo wants to shed its ruthless image as a private equity behemoth.
• Bloomberg Opinion: Offshore wind industry caught in financial storm.
• The ultra-rich are getting richer in California. And they’re staying put.
• Where to find super-old scotch whisky at a fraction of the price.

In 2014, the Norwegian architecture firm MAD Arkitektur hit a wall. The architects’ edgy proposal for a renovation of a mixed-use space in Oslo had been rejected by officials. It was too tall and discordant in a neighborhood whose buildings were otherwise in traditional Scandinavian styles, they ruled. Nine years later, MAD returned with an aesthetic about-face: a truncated design, sans the drama of the original, that mirrored the styles around it. For the Norwegian branch of the social media movement Architectural Uprising, this revision was another feather in its cap. Founded in Sweden in 2014, the collective of citizen design critics who object to the “continued uglification” of developments in Nordic cities have been pushing for a return to classically informed design. 

Oslo’s Munch Museum, designed by Estudio Herreros, won the tile of Norway’s ugliest building.​ Photo by Sebastian Kahnert/picture alliance via Getty Images

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