Old Woman Reading; Gerrit Dou; 1631-2

The NBA season starts on Tuesday, so it’s time for a tradition like no other: yours truly declaring that he has some predictions that are brave and daring but are actually pretty tame and mild. To the predictions!

1. We will have a first-time MVP. Nikola Jokic appears to be the preseason frontrunner for MVP juice after his incredible playoff run. And he very well could win it: he was pretty close to being a three-time reigning MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a preseason pick of many, as well, after adding Damian Lillard to the team. But I think we’re in line to have another first-time winner, as we did a year ago. The top candidates if it is someone new? Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic (if the Mavericks have a stunning rise), Anthony Davis or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

2. The Nuggets will not repeat as champions. The Nuggets are a great team. They might be the most talented team in the NBA. But back-to-back champions are as rare as ever in the league. There has been one repeat in the past decade (the Warriors with Steph Curry and Kevin Durant). Since the break-up of that team, no one in either conference has even made it to the Finals in consecutive years. That’s right: in five years, we’ve had eight conference champions. Only the Warriors (2019 and 2022) and Heat (2020 and 2023) have been to the Finals twice in the past five years. It’s really hard in this league to get to the top repeatedly, for a variety of reasons. This isn’t a knock on the Nuggets. Hell, I’ll call it now: the Nuggets are my pick for the 2024-25 championship. But going back-to-back is really, really hard.

3. Jordan Poole will have the highest-scoring individual game of the season. Can he hit the 70-point mark? Why not? He has the two tools most necessary for an epically high points total: a quality three-point stroke, and a lack of compunction. He scored 41 in a preseason game. No conscience whatsoever. Remember when Devin Booker went for 70 against the Celtics? Similar deal. In related predictions …

4. The Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards will be the worst teams in their conferences. I actually think the Detroit Pistons are a legitimate contender here as well, and that we’ll have a surprise ultra-bad West team due to injury.

5. A real title contender will win the NBA Cup. The in-season tournament is billed as a way to make more early-season regular season games feel like they have stakes. I think it will be a success in that regard, at least in this first season. I also think there is a thought (or hope) that some underdog team will swoop in and claim it, which is certainly possible given the format. But talent is really important in the NBA, so I think one of the inner circle contending teams will actually end up claiming it. Sorry, Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s going to be, like, the Lakers, Warriors, Suns or Celtics.

6. James Harden will get sent home by the Sixers and traded to the Clippers before Thanksgiving. This could go a bunch of different directions, but my fearless prediction is that after Harden disappeared last week, Daryl Morey and Nick Nurse will get Joel Embiid on board with the thought that the team doesn’t need The Beard anymore and send him home. Meanwhile, pressure from Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George and/or Russell Westbrook to add Harden will mount, and another team getting in the mix after a bad start will push the Clippers to act. New starting lineup? Ivica Zubac, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook. A perfect 2018 starting lineup.

7. Both of the two East powerhouses will win 60 games. We’ve had 10 60-game winners in the past 10 seasons, and none last year. Given the skewed nature of the Eastern Conference — with two elite teams, four likely really good teams and a bunch of question marks — there are a lot of wins on the table for the Bucks and Celtics, and I think they’ll soak them up. For what it’s worth, Milwaukee won 58 and Boston won 57 last year. FEARLESS PREDICTIONS.

8. At least three NBA head coaches will be fired during the season. Just two head coaches were fired during the 2022-23 season (Steve Nash and Nate McMillan), and then another six were removed at the end of the season. My cursory review shows eight potential head coaching changes this season, and that’s being relatively conservative with it. Let’s just say there were a bunch of coaches hired 2-3 years ago who probably aren’t getting extensions.

9. The Mike Breen-Doris Burke-Doc Rivers broadcast team is going to be great. Rivers is a really good NBA talker. You can tell from every podcast interview and T.V. clip he does. And of course Burke knows her stuff well. Breen is the Steph Curry of play-by-play announcers: he’s one of the best to ever do it in his own rite, and he makes the game easier for his teammates in ways thought unimaginable. So the desk will be very good as long as Burke and Doc mesh well. But it features a woman and DOC RIVERS, so the haters will be legion. Ignore them!

10. Victor Wembanyama will get All-Star buzz. The coaches will never elect a rookie as an All-Star, but the numbers and performance will be there to make a case. I’m actually wondering if things go really well if there will be a spot of All-NBA buzz given the new positionless format.

11. Suns over Bucks in the NBA Finals. I almost picked Lakers over Bucks and a fifth title and Finals MVP for LeBron; picking against the Lakers is self-care. A 2021 rematch is a vote of confidence in the Suns going point guard by committee, a vote of confidence in Kevin Durant getting more comfortable alongside Devin Booker, a vote of confidence in Frank Vogel squeezing quality defense out of this bunch. It’s also a vote of confidence in Giannis and Dame being so good and the rest of the Bucks being so experienced that any Adrian Griffin growing pains will be overcome. I think we’re due for a non-Warriors Durant championship. I think we’re due to a franchise-first championship for the Suns.

Let’s hear your predictions in the comments.

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Highlights From the Last Night of Preseason

Stephen Curry, the greatest teammate of all-time, took the tip-off against Victor Wembanyama. Andrew Wiggins’ face says it all.

The Wembanyama highlights from this game … blocking three-pointers, drilling tough jumpers, getting loose to the rim. You can hear the Bay Area crowd gasping for air at what they’re witnessing.

Scottie Barnes had a really nice preseason. Maybe the Raptors are … ? No, fool me once and all that.

By the way, in that game: Jordan Poole, coming off of his 41-point night: 7 points on 1/15 shooting. Lots of debris floating in the Poole Party on Friday …

Trae Young has done this pass at least twice in preseason. It’s pretty.

James Harden didn’t end up playing at all in preseason, but Joel Embiid did get out there for the Sixers’ finale on Friday: 21 points, 14 of them from the line. Midseason form.

One of the things I mentioned when writing about the Rockets recently is that how Alperen Sengun responds to Ime Udoka’s coaching and whether there is trust there could be a big factor. I’ll say that the signs are very, very good in the preseason. The defensive activity level from Sengun is high.

Links

Brutal: Steven Adams will undergo season-ending knee surgery. This is the same knee injury that cost him the end of last season. Adams did a rehabilitation process in lieu of surgery, but it looks like rehab wasn’t enough. Brandon Clarke tore his Achilles in March, so he won’t be back for a while either.

The Wizards signed Deni Avdija to a 4-year, $55 million extension. The rare Wizards rookie extension. Seems like a pretty fair number all around.

Zach Collins picked up a 2-year, $35 million extension from the Spurs to be Wemby’s partner in crime. Good for Collins.

Finally on the extension front, the Nuggets extended Zeke Nnaji for $32 million over four years. Limited risk for Denver, some upside if he pops a little bit.

Some awesome Substack hoops folk are hosting an opening night watch along on the Substack app. I won’t be there for this one but it sounds fun. Paid GMIB subscribers also have access to the official GMIB Discord server for game night chat, too.

Tyler Herro talks to Wes Goldberg at The Ringer about the blockbuster trade that never happened. It’s incredible that Herro was having a catch-up lunch with Erik Spoelstra when they found out Damian Lillard had been traded to the Bucks.

Logan Murdock profile of Jordan Poole.

Jared Dubin breaks down early film of the Giannis-Dame pick-and-roll.

Brandon Miller is named in a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of Jamea Harris, who was murdered near the University of Alabama last winter. Miller is said to have brought the gun to the site of the killing, but has not been charged with any crime and maintains that he had no idea what was going on. One of Miller’s Crimson Tide teammates, Darius Miles, has been charged with murder. (He is not related to the Darius Miles NBA fans know.)

Andre Iguodala has officially retired from basketball. I believe (and hope) we’ll continue to see a lot of him, though. He finishes as the second best player from the 2004 NBA Draft, just behind Dwight Howard. Is Iguodala a Hall of Famer?

A glimpse into what Amazon hopes to do by getting a piece of the NBA media deal.

An interesting piece from Lindsay Gibbs on what really holds back women’s sports.

Bobby Marks on big extension decisions for ESPN+.

A Katie Heindl meditation on what’s open to interpretation in the NBA.

Dan Devine on the Miami Heat.

Alright, one more morning before the NBA regular season begins. Be excellent to each other.