What happens when the Atlantic hits its tipping point?

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Twenty years ago, the disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow” came out in theaters and, amid the drama and special effects, made people think about climate change. In it, the Atlantic Ocean circulation abruptly shuts down. Without warm water flowing up from the tropics, unfathomable storms break out and New York City freezes over.

Yes, the movie is over the top – it’s Hollywood – but it draws inspiration from a serious concern. Scientists have been studying these ocean currents for years and watching them slowly lose strength.

In a new scientific study, climate researchers René van Westen, Henk Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis show that the Atlantic’s circulation slowdown is headed toward a tipping point. Using high-tech models of the Earth’s climate, they show what’s likely to happen in North America, Europe and elsewhere if it reaches that point and starts a faster, likely unstoppable shutdown. They also found a warning signal to watch for.

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Stacy Morford

Environment + Climate Editor

Too much fresh water from Greenland’s ice sheet can slow the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Paul Souders/Stone via Getty Images

Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows

René van Westen, Utrecht University; Henk A. Dijkstra, Utrecht University; Michael Kliphuis, Utrecht University

Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.

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