Good morning! Embraer is enjoying its moment in the sun while Boeing struggles. First there was the news that the Brazilian plane maker has ambitious plans for a narrow-body jet that could rival the Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A320neo. Embraer has denied those reports, but it’s getting good press anyway. According to CNN, carriers ranging from Royal Jordanian Airlines to American Airlines are inducting more of its jets in their fleet. Economy passengers are fans too because of Embraer’s 2-2 seating configuration. In other words, the middle seat simply doesn’t exist. Cue more legroom, shoulder room, and a more pleasant flying experience.

🎧 Chaos in Tata Group airlines. Also in today’s episode: is Uniqlo’s millennial Birkin here to stay? Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Dinesh Narayanan, Anup Semwal, and Roshni Nair also contributed to today’s edition.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: Hopes of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year are back in the air after jobless claims rose sharply last week to an eight-month high. It is, however, not clear yet whether it is a blip or the slowdown will be sustained. 

Ratcheting up: President Joe Biden is preparing to escalate the trade war with China. The US could impose new levies on a range of products, including electric vehicles, batteries and solar equipment next week, Bloomberg reported. 

Sweaty nights ahead: June will likely be a tough month for Indian industry as electricity shortage is expected to be the most in 14 years, Reuters reported. The shortfall is a result of hydropower generation falling steeply and new coal-based stations scheduled to go live before March, getting delayed.

Asian markets opened buoyant on US cues. The GIFT Nifty indicates a positive opening for Indian indices.

BANKING

On The Horns Of A Dilemma

Rapid digitalisation combined with India’s financial inclusion goals are forcing banks to spend on technology upgradation yet absorb a major chunk of the cost. 

The RBI has increased the cap for e-mandates used for digital payments from Rs 15,000 (~$180) to Rs 1 lakh and UPI transactions made through prepaid payment instruments, such as wallets, come with an interchange fee of up to 1.1% for certain merchant payments above Rs 2,000. 

While each transaction made online is costing banks money, the fees barely cover them. On average, reinforcing tech infrastructure to handle soaring transaction volumes will cost banks 8-10% of their operating expenses. The cost escalations could not have come at a worse time for banks. Banks’ net interest margins are shrinking even as deposit growth slows while credit demand rises. So where will they cut costs? The Core explains the conundrum that Indian banks are in.

PODCAST

Tune in every Monday to Friday as financial journalist and host Govindraj Ethiraj gives you the most important take on the latest in business and economy.

In today’s episode, he speaks to aviation consultant and Air India veteran Sanjay Lazar about how the Tatas have inherited a full-blown union problem. Also in this episode: A Balasubramanian, CEO, Birla Sunlife AMC, on why volatility in the markets even at current levels is still low.

HEALTHCARE

Well-off And Unwell

Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, the fat-melting 'wonder drug', is a smash hit in India. Sales of Rybelsus, the oral semaglutide brand prescribed for Type-2 diabetes, more than doubled in the past year to Rs 363 crore in April from Rs 147 crore a year ago.

Nobody’s surprised: Well-off Indians splurging on weight-loss drugs — Rybelsus costs about Rs 10,000 a month — is not surprising. About 12.1% of urban Indian adults are diabetic. The Indian Council of Medical Research has linked 56.4% of total disease burden, including diabetes and obesity, to unhealthy diets. 

Advantage hospitals: Steady incomes and the surge of lifestyle diseases are expected to boost India's medical industry. Private equity is pouring into the sector, with a record $5.5 billion (~Rs 45,893 crore) invested in 2023. Hospital revenues are projected to more than double to around $219 billion (~Rs 182.78 lakh crore) by 2027.

AVIATION

Sibling Rivalry

It’s happening again. Last month, Vistara cancelled dozens of flights after its pilots called in sick en-masse. Now sister airline Air India Express is in the same mess: employees staged a mass sick leave and at least 85 flights are cancelled. 

This time, Tata isn’t playing ball. It first sacked 30 employees on leave; now the strike is off and 25 crew members reinstated.

Just like striking Vistara pilots, Air India Express’ crew isn’t thrilled about merging with AIX Connect (formerly Air Asia), Tata Group’s other low-cost airline. Employee union AIXEU wrote to the Tata Group alleging discrimination, but Air India says it doesn’t recognise any union. 

Light-headed: There’s more aviation trouble. SpiceJet has reportedly delayed salaries yet again. GoFirst has resigned itself to liquidation — it will not challenge a Delhi High Court order to deregister all 54 aircraft leased to the airline. 

The Signal 

Mergers are tricky, especially when dealing with employees who were used to the benefits of a government job. The Tatas have the unenviable task of merging four very different airlines while keeping customers and crew both happy. 

Tata must pull it off for the long-term even as rival airlines go under or struggle to stay afloat. Mistakes in the aviation business can prove extremely costly in the long run. As aviation lawyer Nitin Sarin said in The Core Report, bankrupt airlines in India are often doomed to die because the insolvency process is long and complex, often concluding long after employees have left and assets such as aircraft have depreciated to zero. 

FYI

Ducks in a row: Tata Motors may separate its vehicle financing arms and merge them with Tata Capital in a share swap deal. 

Shot of doubt: A group of doctors has urged the Centre to review and audit the commercialisation of the Covishield vaccine after AstraZeneca admitted that its Covid vaccine can cause blood clots in rare instances.

Watch your back: OpenAI is planning to announce an AI-powered search product on Monday that will compete with Google Search, Reuters reports.

Not yet, NCR: Bengaluru has retained the number one spot as India’s top startup hiring location, accounting for 31% of jobs in the sector, per a study by talent platform Foundit.

Pay up: Canada’s anti-money laundering agency has fined crypto exchange Binance C$6 million ($4.38 million) for violating terrorist financing and money laundering laws.

THE DAILY DIGIT

1,100

…and counting. The number of mutual funds culled by Wall Street in a span of nine years. While 95 mutual funds debuted in the US this year, 123 were shuttered. (Bloomberg)

FWIW

A world of pAIn: Never mind the concern over deepfakes and the ensuing harassment and violation of people’s privacy, OpenAI may soon permit the use of AI-generated explicit content. The company is reconsidering its ban on generating NSFW (not safe for work) content. It’s looking at providing the ability to “responsibly'' create age-appropriate erotica, gore, profanity, and porn. Naturally, people are losing it. Some believe offering legal, AI-generated adult content could be a salve for much of the open-source “nudify” apps out there. We aren’t so optimistic though.