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To investors,

I was having lunch yesterday with the CEO of a large asset manager who has an Ethereum ETF application submitted. The application came up during our conversation and he told me there was a “zero percent chance” that the Ethereum ETFs would be approved right now based on what he had seen.

When I asked him why he thought that, he explained that the SEC had not been asking for comments on the applications, nor had they been engaging with the application owners in the same way they had with the Bitcoin ETF process.

This seemed reasonable to me.

But a few hours later the game changed — Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart suddenly changed their prediction of an ETH ETF approval from 25% odds to 75%. Eric wrote:

“Update: James and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See Nate's tweet below for probably order of events (but again we capping at 75% until we see more, eg filing updates).”

This is a significant development that may be hard to understand for the casual observer. Let me break down a few things.

First, President Trump held a campaign event about a week ago where he explicitly stated that he was going to be a pro-crypto candidate. Trump referenced Biden and the current administration’s abrasive stance towards the industry, while claiming that he would protect the industry so it could thrive in America.

These comments were met with skepticism by many at the time. But Trump was saying all of this with many crypto entrepreneurs, including Messari’s Ryan Selkis, standing by his side. It felt like a real-time vibe shift for the former President of the United States to clearly state that crypto would be a campaign advantage for him.

The next development was the SAB 121 repeal vote. A number of Democrats broke from party lines to vote in favor of the crypto industry. Variant Fund’s Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky explained “The SAB 121 repeal vote clearly shows how crypto is a bipartisan issue in DC. Democrats aren’t a monolith opposed to crypto. Many are supporters, and more will come around over time. The best path to good crypto policy is to embrace both parties, not to pick one over the other.”

It felt like the tide was turning, but there was still a very long way to go. At lunch yesterday I shared with my friend that it felt like the Biden administration could not continue their abrasive stance towards the industry. Trump’s recent embracing of bitcoin and crypto meant that Democrats were backed into a corner — if they continued to be abrasive to crypto, they risked losing a very large percentage of a key demographic during the election.

I had no idea how important Democrats thought the crypto issue has become though.

It appears that in the last 48 hours a decision was made. No one knows who made it, but someone in a position of power and influence has decided that the Democratic party could not cede the crypto issue to Trump for the 2024 election.

There will be no pro vs anti-crypto candidate showdown in November.

You are watching both political parties actively position themselves to compete for votes from bitcoin & crypto holders. It took only 15 years for the industry to go from creation to shaping campaign policies. The ground shifted this week - the world will never be the same.

We have previously seen cities and states within the US compete for these individuals. NYC, Miami and Texas were all bragging about being the bitcoin capital of the world within the last two years. Now it is happening in national politics. The industry got too big to ignore.

A bunch of people on the internet created a $2.6 trillion industry in the face of government pressure. Imagine what happens when the government is now actively courting these individuals and companies, along with embracing the technology. The headwind becomes a tailwind quickly.

Now, to be clear, there is not a guarantee that the Ethereum ETF will be approved on this specific round of applications. The guys from Bloomberg are only at 75% confidence for a reason. But the odds definitely increased materially in the last 48 hours. The broader shift in tone and policy is becoming obvious.

Don’t celebrate yet, but this feels like the crypto industry just scored a touchdown to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Let’s just make sure we don’t blow it in the final minutes.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Kenny DeGiglio is the Co-Founder of Dream Startup Job and Crypto Academy.

In this conversation, we discuss tips and tricks for landing a job in crypto, remote work vs in-office, US-based vs. international firms, compensation, bear vs. bull market, Dream Startup Job, an overview of Crypto Academy, and the benefits of going through the training program.

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