To no surprise, Nvidia crushed first-quarter earnings.

You’ll likely read about it in every other financial newsletter published today — which is why I want to instead focus on the widespread economic confusion sweeping the US economy and markets.

We have enough surveys, comments, and data to know one thing for certain: Nobody’s on the same page.

Today’s letter is brought to you by iTrust Capital

Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets of the last decade. Yet if you turn to a traditional exchange, you have to pay taxes.

iTrust Capital offers tax-advantaged accounts so you can save money on taxes while still investing in crypto. Long-term investors understand the power of an IRA.

Find out how you can leverage one from iTrust Capital.

The consensus is that there is no consensus

How strong is the US economy?

Depends who you ask.

President Biden will tell you inflation is cooling faster than an ice cream cone in summer, and Bidenomics have worked great. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will tell you inflation is actually too high, though the economy has proved more resilient than expected. 

As it turns out, everyday Americans are experiencing something else entirely. 

According to a new Harris poll:

“What Americans are saying in this data is: ‘Economists may say things are getting better, but we’re not feeling it where I live,’” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. 

If we take government data at face value, those perceptions don’t quite align with reality. 

US GDP is still positive and robust.

April CPI fell from 3.5% to 3.4% compared to the prior month. 

But parsing the numbers misses the point.

Indeed, if consumers say everything feels expensive, policymakers are the only ones who benefit from stepping in and correcting them. 

Notable, too, is how pessimism has colored other surveys this month. 

The University of Michigan’s report showed consumer sentiment tanked 13% in May compared to April, hitting its lowest in six months.

Meanwhile, a Financial Times poll showed the majority of consumers disapprove of how Biden is handling the economy, particularly when discussing prices for food and gas.

These are not favorable for a president seeking reelection, and the administration knows it.

So, the White House published a memo this week that blamed Republicans for blocking its initiatives, and said that combating inflation remains a priority.

"Economists warn that MAGAnomics would set off an 'Inflation bomb,’” wrote deputy press secretary Andrew Bates. 

Biden himself has tried to communicate as much.

In more than one interview this month, he has claimed, incorrectly, CPI hovered at 9% when he entered office and — presumably thanks to his policies — it’s since fallen to 3%. 

CPI was 1.4% when his term began.

As for Powell, he may be the person who has the most even-handed grasp on the economy. It is his job, after all.  

But central bankers have reiterated plenty that they won’t lower interest rates until they see more evidence inflation is cooling.

And according to FOMC minutes released Wednesday, no one at the Fed is sure how long that might take. 

With all the mixed messaging, it’s no wonder Americans are experiencing an economy seemingly so untethered from the data.

Then again, are the surveys really so far removed from reality?

Here’s what Arie Kotler, the CEO of Arko, which operates thousands of convenience stores and gas stations across the US, told Reuters on Tuesday:

“You not only have inflation pressure now but also higher interest rates and fuel prices at $3.59 on average nationally. People are going to drive less and spend less as they have less money in their pockets.”

*At a glance:

Elsewhere:

Rapid-fire:

Last thing:

Interested in advertising in Opening Bell Daily? Email phil@openingbellmedia.com