]On paper, J.D. Vance is the exact opposite of what one would expect for Trump's vice presidential pick. He’s an Ivy League-educated Hollywood producer who worked for Big Tech and CNN. In 2016, he was one of America’s most prominent ‘Never Trumpers.’

Vance is not from central casting. Standing at 5’7, sporting a beard, he contrasts sharply with Mike Pence. Vance is incredibly and obviously ambitious. He is so thirsty for power that he makes Ted Cruz look lazy.

This is a really odd choice for so many reasons, but it tells me one thing—Project 2025 is a very real threat if Trump wins. And Vance will implement it with ruthless efficiency.

The Three Reasons People Pick a VP

It's often said the first big test for any Vice President is whether they can step up in a crisis. It’s not just a box to check—it’s crucial. John McCain found out with Sarah Palin that there could be severe political fallout if they can't handle it.

Of course, picking a vice president is all about politics. The decision on how they might help win the election comes after figuring out if they're ready.

Some selections involve putting a key state in play. In 2004, John Kerry placed John Edwards on the ticket in hopes that Edwards could deliver his home state of North Carolina. Sometimes, it’s about appealing to a specific constituency group. Trump picked Pence for two reasons: He was one of the only people willing to say yes, but Pence also had a specific appeal to Evangelical voters. This group is critical to the Republican coalition and was very skeptical of the thrice-married cad from Manhattan. Another approach is seeking out ideological balance on the ticket — usually in the form of moderation. 

Finally, the last approach is having someone who addresses a specific weakness. In 1992, a scandal-plagued Bill Clinton picked Al Gore partly because Gore was known for his ethical conduct. In 2000, Gore chose Joe Lieberman for the same reasons. Eight years of serving with Clinton had tainted Gore’s once sterling reputation.

J.D. Vance offers no political advantage. He doesn’t expand the map; Ohio, his home state, is firmly in Trump’s camp. He also lacks appeal to key demographics that Trump needs to win over. His appeal seems limited to staunch MAGA supporters who are unwaveringly loyal to Trump. Moreover, Vance fails to provide ideological balance or address vulnerabilities within the ticket. His alignment with far-right extremism mirrors Trump's falsehoods about the 2020 election and suggests a willingness to support future insurrectionist actions.

Vance is just another white male MAGA candidate. While he is younger than Trump, age doesn't seem to be a significant concern for voters regarding Trump—especially when compared to Joe Biden.

So, why the hell did Trump pick Vance?

Vance Is MAGA Dick Cheney

Donald Trump does not give two shits about governing. He’d likely struggle to explain how a bill becomes a law or distinguish between an executive order and a presidential memorandum. His knowledge of the responsibilities of the cabinet agencies under his administration would likely be lacking as well.

However, Trump picked Vance for the same reasons George W. Bush picked Cheney — someone who has the smarts and know-how to implement the MAGA agenda. Trump may not even know this is why he picked Vance, but it’s why so many people behind Project 2025 supported Vance’s appointment. While Trump is watching his fifth hour of Fox News that day and Truthing about absurd marginalia, Vance is going to pull the lever of power to put in place the most radical policies in modern American history. As evidenced by the transition from Never Trump to slavishly pro-Trump, Vance has no moral center or ideological consistency. All he cares about is his power. Vance is driven by ambition, and he knows that MAGA is the future of the Republican Party. So die-hard MAGA is his persona.

Unlike Mike Pence — a famously dumb person — Vance is smart enough to be very dangerous. I would encourage you to read Ross Douthat’s interview with Vance. Douthat’s political crush on Vance comes through because he refuses to challenge Vance with tough follow-up questions or confront him about the glaring contradictions in his responses. However, the article provides insight into Vance's thought process and his skill in presenting extreme views in a palatable manner.

There has been much skepticism about whether Trump would or could actually implement the scarier elements of Project 2025. Vance’s selection should put those doubts to rest. If Trump wins, Vance will be the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and will be judged on his ability to make American MAGA.