We saw this coming a mile away. Simon J. Levien and Neil Vigdor wrote in the New York Times:

Former President Donald J. Trump declared late on Friday that he was dropping out of an ABC News debate scheduled for Sept. 10 and presented a counterproposal to Vice President Kamala Harris, his presumptive opponent, to face off on Fox News six days earlier.

The change, which Mr. Trump announced on his social media site, Truth Social, raised objections from the Harris campaign and appeared to throw a potential showdown between the rivals into question.

According to Mr. Trump’s post on Truth Social, the Fox News debate would take place at a to-be-determined location in Pennsylvania, one of the most consequential battleground states, and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.

At a rally in Atlanta last night, Trump doubled down, claiming that Harris can use a teleprompter but can’t speak off the cuff.

Donald Trump was chomping at the bit to debate Joe Biden. He repeatedly challenged him to debates. When Biden proposed two early debates — including this ABC debate — with no audience and muted microphones, Trump immediately accepted without negotiation. A debate with Biden was very much in his political interest.

Not so much with Kamala Harris.

His antics demonstrate that he really does not want to debate her. Trump and his campaign have continued to flounder since Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate.

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A Flailing Campaign

For much of the last year, Trump and his campaign controlled the race. They planned to beat Joe Biden by weaponizing concerns about his age and framing the race as strong vs. weak. They executed that strategy with a focus and discipline that was absent from previous Trump campaigns.

That changed two weeks ago. Biden's replacement by Harris was a well-known possibility, yet Trump seemed totally unprepared for the switch. Maybe he thought Biden would never cede the stage or believed the tales spun by some Biden loyalists that there would be an effort to bypass Harris. Either way, it is a massive strategic failure from a campaign that loves to brag about its smarts and savvy.

Trump’s behavior over the last two weeks has been a return to his 2020 form — erratic, petulant, and bordering on self-destructive. His appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists was an epic disaster, and his rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania was low-energy and rambling.

Backing out of the debate with a late Friday night post on his failing social media site is more evidence that Trump is shaken by how Kamala Harris seized momentum in the race. He likely did this on his own. It was not part of some broader strategy. Even if the campaign wanted to back out of the ABC debate, this is not how it’s done. They should have waited for maximum media impact and done some advance work with Fox News.

Trump has no plan. He is flailing — equal parts angry and afraid of this new, closer campaign.

Trump Lost a Step

If Trump was so anxious to debate Biden, why is he so reticent to debate Harris? The answer is simple. Trump believed (correctly) that he could best Biden on a debate stage and is (correctly) very afraid that he will lose to Harris.

Out of professional obligation and personal sickness, I have been closely watching Trump for nine years. Even when he faded into obscurity after January 6th, I followed his appearances on Newsmax and obscure podcasts.

Here’s the thing: Donald Trump lost a step since leaving the White House. He is more incoherent, speaks more often, and confuses names and titles with greater frequency. At the rally in Pennsylvania last week, Trump said that Senate candidate Dave McCormick was running for governor.

Joe Biden may have had the worst debate performance in history, but one could argue that Trump’s performance was the second worst. Trump’s answers on abortion, the economy and every other issue were filled with holes — anyone other than Joe Biden would have torn him apart.

Trump watched Harris’s debate against Mike Pence in 2020. He’s seen the videos of her rhetorically disemboweling Bill Barr and Brett Kavanaugh.

Down deep in his dark soul, Trump knows he doesn’t have what it takes to debate Harris and is now trying to get out of it.

Undermining His Own Message

Trump’s message is simple. The world is a chaotic and dangerous place and only Trump is strong enough to protect American families. Sure, he’s an asshole who says crazy things, but he’s strong. As Bill Clinton once said, "When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have someone strong and wrong than weak and right.” Some voters will put up with Trump’s craziness, corruption, and general assholery because they see him as strong. If voters no longer view him this way, the illusion collapses.

Trump bailing on a previously agreed upon debate and demanding one with his favorite network reeks of weakness. It undermines the central message of his campaign.

The Side-by-Side He Doesn’t Want

Trump thought standing next to Joe Biden made him look young — or at least young enough. Debating Joe Biden made him sound coherent — or at least coherent enough. Sparring with Joe Biden made him seem energetic — or at least energetic enough.

The side-by-side comparison with Kamala Harris is different. She is young, eloquent, and dynamic. Standing next to Kamala Harris, Trump will look well past his expiration date.

When Trump stood next to Biden, the image was strong vs. weak. When he stands next to Kamala Harris, it will be future vs. past. And as Kamala Harris says “We’re not going back.”

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