Good morning, and thanks for your continued support of Extra Points.

Almost exactly a month ago, I wrote a newsletter that said I expected conference realignment to slow down in the near future. Based on multiple conversations I had in the industry, I wrote that the legal battle with FSU/Clemson in the ACC, as well as concerns over the House settlement, many realignment decisions were in a hurry-up-and-wait mode. I also wrote this about the Pac-12:

In my defense…it’s true, OSU and Wazzu won’t be keeping those current affiliate arrangements long term. But waiting for a more opportune moment? That isn’t exactly what happened.

Late Wednesday evening, multiple national reporters began tweeting that after negotiations between over extending their scheduling agreement broke down between the Pac-12 and MWC, the former was now targeting Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State for full membership.

By the time I got my kids off to school and cracked open my morning Mountain Dew Kickstart, the press releases were hitting my inbox. It’s official. The Pac-2 is now the 6Pac…with designs on growing to eight or more institutions.

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So who else is the Pac-12 considering?

Let’s start with who is not likely to be considered a credible expansion candidate.

Multiple industry professionals told me yesterday that the chances of Cal and Stanford leaving the ACC to re-join the Pac-12 are close to zero percent. For one, as plenty of other national reporters have noted, both schools signed the Grant of Rights agreement with the ACC, binding themselves to the league for the next several years.

But let’s say the ACC GOR is struck down in court, and somehow, any massive financial penalty for an early ACC withdrawal was removed for Cal and Stanford. Even then, I’m told, the two schools would not be considered likely expansion candidates. After all, Cal and Stanford decided to join the ACC specifically in part to avoid conference affiliation with the Boise States and Fresno States of the world. The current six-team PAC-12 is not a great cultural or competitive fit for the Cal and Stanford Olympic sports programs. I understand the geographic reasons why commentators and fans would point to a potential reunion…but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Another group that I’m told is less likely, at least for now? Big Sky institutions. FOS is reporting that business and civic leaders around Sacramento plan to make a push for Sacramento State to move up to the FBS ranks, and fans and boosters of other institutions could potentially make similar pitches. It’s unclear to me, at least immediately, if the effort described here by FOS is made specifically in concert with the athletic department or university leadership.

Two industry officials familiar with thinking within the Big Sky conveyed a confidence, at least for now, that their schools are unlikely to seek reclassification, even specifically mentioning Sacramento State as a school likely to stay.

The biggest reason, I’m told, is financial. The costs to move from the Big Sky to either the MWC or Pac12, I’m told, would represent an annual “eight-figure commitment”, not to mention the new $5 million reclassification fee due to the NCAA. While a reclassification would increase media rights revenues, as well as earning from guarantee games, there was little confidence from anybody that I’ve spoken to, or anything I’ve read, to suggest that FCS teams from that league would be interested in making a jump right now.

But of course, folks say that sort of thing all the time…until it’s time to change conferences. So I wouldn’t write MONTANA TO NEVER EVER EVER GO FBS in blood or anything.

So who does that leave? Primarily, AAC institutions, and potentially other MWC schools.

On the AAC side, I am aware of at least three AAC institutions who have hired consulting companies or third-party firms to help prepare themselves for potential Pac-12 (or other) conference openings, including Tulane. I would imagine Memphis, and potentially also Rice and UTSA, would be interested in at least having conversations with the Pac-12, especially if their proposed broadcast revenue distribution could beat what they’re earning in the AAC.

My hunch, and I could be wrong about this, is that if any of the remaining MWC institutions would have been consensus choices by the other Pac-12 institutions…they would already have invites. That only four MWC institutions opted to move makes me think that any of the remaining schools would need to at least overcome some objections or resistance.

Yahoo! Sports reports that one such example could be UNLV:

If I had to handicap the remaining field, I’d probably point to UNLV as the most attractive remaining institution, followed by Air Force, but the gap between any of them isn’t very large.

Another factor to consider is that bigger isn’t always better…but sometimes it is. A smaller conference means that each slice of the revenue pie can be a little bit bigger…but larger conferences also mean more conference inventory that could be sold to broadcast partners, multimedia rights partners, etc. The smaller your conference game inventory is, the more out of conference games you have to schedule, and buying home games can get very expensive.

I’d be surprised if the Pac-12 grew to 12 schools again, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the league eventually expanded to ten, rather than eight.

What about the MWC?

Priority one will need to be hanging on to the rest of their membership. Yahoo! also reports that Air Force could potentially be a target for the AAC (who already has Army and Navy in the league), and the Pac-12 could come around again targeting UNLV, Air Force, New Mexico, or other schools. With geography and budget both limiting their options, it’s critical that the Mountain West hang on to as many of their schools as they possibly can.

The top replacement targets, from what I was hearing yesterday, are likely to be New Mexico State and UTEP, both currently in Conference USA. Both schools, I’m told, signed a Grant of Rights Agreement, but if the MWC can offer a better broadcast deal, I’m told the buyout isn’t expected to be so high as to prevent any schools from leaving the league (especially if the two schools don’t leave until 2026). Both New Mexico State and UTEP, I’m told, were regularly trying to get into the MWC for years, but faced resistance from both New Mexico and some of the more resourced league institutions.

Without Boise, CSU, Fresno or SDSU, perhaps MWC membership won’t be quite so picky about adding two programs already in the geographic footprint. Unlike any FCS additions, adding CUSA institutions won’t require any reclassification periods.

The pickings get slim among FBS institutions beyond that point. While Big Sky FCS schools are less likely, the MWC could potentially find football suitors elsewhere. Tarleton State, for example, has telegraphed their intention of eventually reclassifying to FBS. The MWC could also look East, potentially reaching out to FCS powers like South Dakota State or North Dakota State.

A more interesting scenario, to me, is if the MWC decided to double down on their new athletic strength….basketball.

A league that keeps Utah State, UNLV, New Mexico and Wyoming, and potentially adds New Mexico State, is a league with real men’s basketball brands with fanbases and established records of success. The league could decide to revisit previous proposals involving stronger brands in the WCC (Gonzaga? Saint Mary’s? LMU? Grand Canyon), Big West (Irvine? Davis? Santa Barbara?) WAC (UVU? Cal Baptist?) or other leagues, betting on trying to remain a 3+ bid league, rather than trying to repopulate with expensive football schools, chasing leagues like the AAC and Sun Belt for a potential Playoff spot.

One potential wildcard to monitor in all of this…Hawaii. A MWC that moves in a decidedly more basketball-focused direction could potentially decide to not extend Hawaii’s affiliate football membership. Could the Pac-12 be interested? Hawaii’s fanbase travels, and their unique TV window has legitimate broadcast value, but the school is very far away and hasn’t been an elite football program in years.

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As always, take everything here with the appropriate salt, and understand that circumstances can change quickly.

I think it’s hard to overstate how significant the Pac-12’s new additions are for the rest of the D-I landscape. With the Pac-12 and the MWC on the membership hunt, and potentially other leagues now looking to make preemptive strikes to fortify themselves, membership could change across as many as eight different leagues (Pac12, MWC, CUSA, Big Sky, Big West, WCC, WAC and Summit, and maybe even others).

With so many moving parts, things can change quickly and dramatically. And as with all realignment stories, the number of people at each particular school or league who know the reality on the ground is small...that list usually doesn’t include coaches, and sometimes might not even include ADs.

So almost everybody gets stuff wrong sometimes. I will do my very best to keep track of what is going on and why, but as always, I’d encourage folks to be skeptical readers…of me, and anything else you might see on Twitter or across various message boards.

I’ll have more once I feel comfortable I know more…but my email, DMs and phone are always open. :)