Why young people's support of Democrats is waning

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The cost of living and immigration are big issues for voters in the presidential election. But there’s another factor that appears likely to play a role in the election outcome: happiness – or the lack of it.

“Research worldwide indicates that happy people prefer keeping things the same, and they tend to vote for the incumbent in political elections,” writes political communication scholar Carol Bishop Mills.

Mills, who runs a public opinion lab based in Florida, says, “Voters who aren’t as happy are more open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent.”

And while the old truism about voting was that younger voters favored Democrats, while older voters leaned Republican, voters between the ages of 18 and 35 “are more likely to vote Republican than they have been in the past, especially young men.”

Why? Perhaps it’s because younger people are not as happy or satisfied with their lives as they used to be, Mills writes, after a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic increase in school shootings and costs of living, political polarization, distrust in the media and two wars raging abroad.

“Just as much as ideology, the literal pursuit of happiness may be shaping decisions at the ballot box,” Mills concludes.

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Naomi Schalit

Senior Editor, Politics + Democracy

Happiness is more than a mood – it may factor into how we vote. Adrienne Bresnahan/Getty Images

Happiness swings votes – and America’s current mood could scramble expectations of young and old voters

Carol Bishop Mills, Florida Atlantic University

The 2024 election has upended traditional voting blocs, with young people trending rightward and seniors embracing Harris. New research proposes an intriguing theory: It may come down to happiness.

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