Author: defioasis

Note: This article is for sharing thoughts only and does not constitute any investment advice.

The rising meme figure, Muard, mentioned during the Token2049 event in Singapore that crypto has entered the Memecoin Supercycle. This live video has sparked widespread attention and sharing across the web. In the crypto market, memecoins have become an investment direction that cannot be ignored. However, whether the value of memes is truly recognized by the public is still up for debate, especially among traditional investors, who are more likely to view it as akin to gambling. This article will explore the investment value of memecoins and the logic behind it, based on personal observations and understanding of the meme market.

Understanding the Value of Memecoins from the Perspective of Attention

Memecoins represent a manifestation of the attention economy, serving as a monetization of attention. In today’s world of overwhelming information, attention has become an extremely scarce resource. Just as people’s attention gets scattered as they scroll through TikTok or Twitter, memes — with their unique cultural symbols, humorous expressions, or even fanatic, quasi-religious nature — succeed in capturing and concentrating public attention. Memecoins, in turn, are the monetized expression of this attention, linking the public’s enthusiasm with capital flow and market speculation.

The so-called success of memecoins is not built on technology or utility. As Muard mentioned in his Memecoin Supercycle speech, the token itself is the product, rather than a token created for an existing product. This is what distinguishes memecoins from other so-called “value coins” or governance tokens. As a product in itself, memecoins rely heavily on social media, especially platforms like Twitter and TikTok, for their spread. When more and more people start discussing the same meme, this attention creates a snowball effect. The accumulated public attention draws in more users, short-term investors, market speculators, and even so-called “whales.”

Additionally, the success of memecoins is closely tied to investors’ FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). During the spread of a memecoin, the process of attracting eyeballs also accumulates FOMO. When a memecoin suddenly becomes a trending topic and its price surges, there is often a concern among investors about missing out on a huge investment opportunity. A prime example of this is the token BOME, which was listed on Binance within just three days.

Lifecycle of Memecoins

The essence of memecoins is based on attention, and attention is highly volatile. This rapid shift in market focus means that the value of a memecoin can collapse almost instantly. Given this uncertainty, different investors employ different strategies. I broadly categorize the lifecycle of a memecoin into three phases: the PvP phase, the consolidation phase, and the top exchange listing phase.

In the PvP phase, which typically lasts no more than three days after a memecoin’s inception, or sometimes just a few hours, investors usually participate with small positions, treating it like a lottery ticket. They aim to enter and exit the market quickly to capture short-term opportunities. This phase is generally suited to degen players, who possess strong short-term trading skills, are proficient with monitoring tools, and have high sensitivity to market signals, often operating around the clock. Essentially, they capitalize on opportunities created during the flow of attention. A simple example would be reacting quickly to Elon Musk’s tweets or super influencer (superkol) posts, then using keywords to scan the blockchain. However, the investment risks during the PvP phase are extremely high because once attention shifts or sustainability falters, it can easily turn into a game of “who exits faster.”

The second phase is the consolidation phase, which lasts longer after the PvP stage. Based on my observations and reflections on memecoin investing, I believe that an excellent meme, or a memecoin suitable for larger investments, is not just about speed. There is ample time to prepare, and the community has more time to develop. During the consolidation phase, the initial hype and narrative behind the memecoin become the focal points for investors. Memecoins with strong narratives and defenses against imitation are more likely to regain market attention in the future. Additionally, support from second-tier exchanges is an important signal during this phase, as it provides a venue for market makers to get involved without the need to create a new, similar memecoin from scratch.

The third phase is when the memecoin gets listed on major exchanges, such as Binance, Coinbase, and Upbit. This is not the end of the memecoin lifecycle, but rather the beginning of a new phase, as it steps into mainstream or near-mainstream status. Once listed on a top exchange, the security of the memecoin improves significantly, reducing the survival risks, and its future will largely depend on the liquidity provided during a bull market.

Memecoin vs. VCcoin

Compared to VCcoins, memecoins have become a more mainstream investment approach at this stage, primarily due to their wealth-generating effect. In simple terms, other sectors and value coins are not making money, while memecoins, relatively speaking, are.

Since the beginning of this year, VCcoins have been widely criticized, and the complaints can be categorized into three main points. First, the compression of valuation space between primary and secondary markets; second, issues related to airdrops; and third, narrative fatigue and the constant reinvention of the wheel.

First, the high FDV combined with low circulating supply leaves secondary market investors struggling. Most projects launching on top exchanges now open with a market cap of $1–2 billion and an FDV in the tens hundreds of billions. This is followed by continuous token unlocks and sell pressure, leaving no room for secondary investors. A stark contrast is Stepn, which at its launch on Binance’s Launchpool, had a market cap of just $100 million for GMT, and its 20x rise brought it to $2 billion. Nowadays, few projects launch with a sub-$100 million market cap, and the hype surrounding new projects pales in comparison to that of Stepn.

Airdrops have become a particularly thorny issue. Projects need airdrop hunters to boost valuations but are reluctant to distribute more tokens to these users because airdrops essentially allocate tokens to insiders or those who benefit insiders. Retail investors are at a disadvantage, whether it’s the project team, whales/institutions, or even exchanges. As the golden age of airdrop hunting fades, so too does the era where everyone could profit. Now, studios and Sybil attackers dominate the scene, and the relationship between project teams and retail investors/airdrop hunters has worsened, with rewards becoming increasingly scarce. Given this unproductive situation, it’s no wonder people are more inclined to speculate in the memecoin market for a quick profit.

The third pain point is the narrative fatigue and lack of innovation. Many blockchains are building the same infrastructure, constantly reinventing the wheel. There’s plenty of infrastructure but very few applications. This constant wheel-reinvention leads to fragmentation of liquidity.

While memecoins also have their fair share of conspiracy groups (cabals) and hidden market manipulators, their relationship with users is not as adversarial. Whether it’s retail investors, project teams, or even so-called whales, the common goal is to expand market capacity. More importantly, users have a chance to access the valuation space that VC coins typically squeeze out of them — the space in the primary market — offering opportunities to gain on-chain. Although these opportunities are increasingly difficult to come by, they still exist, unlike VC coins, which leave no room for retail investors. Of course, if you’re a degen player, you can PvP for quick gains and exit without worrying too much about these broader issues.

Old Memecoins vs. New Memecoins

From the perspective of attention, the developmental path of both old and new memecoins isn’t all that different. Even the largest memecoin by market cap, DOGE, saw periodic price surges when Elon Musk promoted it in recent years. Older memecoins that are already listed on major exchanges don’t rely as heavily on short-term bursts of attention since their larger scale and more established communities can sustain ongoing external interest.

However, new memecoins have introduced various novel approaches. Firstly, the angles for speculation have become more diverse, turning “everything into a meme.” It’s no longer limited to cats and dogs; we now have zoo-themed coins, celebrity coins, political coins, the recent emoji coins, and even superkol figures like Muard’s holdings have become a point of speculation. Secondly, with the rise of various pump tools and the low cost of launching tokens, the pace at which new memecoins are born has accelerated. Anyone can now issue a memecoin, with many of them sharing the same names, leading to battles over timing, uppercase vs. lowercase variations, and competition even between different memecoins themselves.

The competition between different blockchains is also intensifying, with Solana and Ethereum being the most prominent, followed by Base and Tron earlier, and more recently, the hot Sui Memecoins.

At its core, though, this hasn’t strayed from the framework of attention. What has changed is the increasing diversification and competition within that framework.

Envisioning the Future of Memecoins

Vitalik once mentioned that his selling of ETH or the frequent sale of memecoins donated to him by the community was to support charitable causes. This points to a potential future direction for memecoins — playing a significant role in supporting philanthropy. Given the powerful social and viral nature of memes, memecoins could become tools for funding social initiatives or charitable projects in the future. In this scenario, communities would not simply engage in promotional activities or shout slogans, but could evolve into social charity groups, participating in offline philanthropy or acts of kindness.

Of course, one of the most important aspects of memes and memecoins is maintaining a certain level of purity — bringing joy and laughter. If memecoins pivot towards blockchain development or application-building, it might stray from the original intent of memes. That said, this is just my personal speculation and perspective.

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