Tangle - Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Quick hits.

1. Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a speech billed as her closing pitch to voters at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. (The speech)
2. The Supreme Court declined Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s request to be removed from the presidential ballots in Wisconsin and Michigan. (The decision) Separately, the Court ruled that Virginia can cancel more than 1,600 voter registrations that the state says are held by non-citizens. (The ruling)
3. Russia test-fired a series of ground, sea, and air-launched missiles to simulate a nuclear response to an enemy's first strike. (The test)
4. Hezbollah named Naim Qassem as its new leader. Qassem served as deputy chief to the group’s former leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike last month. (The appointment) Separately, at least 93 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Gaza, according to the Gaza government media office. Israeli officials said they were investigating the incident. (The strike)
5. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October rose more than 11%, its largest single-month increase since March 2021. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings in September decreased by more than 400,000 from the previous month to 7.44 million, the lowest since January 2021. (The reports) 

Today's topic.

Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. On Sunday, October 27, former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump held a rally at a sold-out Madison Square Garden in New York City. Although Trump will be holding a series of rallies — mostly in swing states — for the next week, the event at Madison Square Garden was his last major event with a full complement of guest speakers before Election Day.

Before Donald Trump’s headline address, his running mate Sen. JD Vance (OH), House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA), Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and his sons Eric and Donald Jr. all spoke. Trump’s wife, Melania Trump, gave a rare appearance at a rally, introducing her husband to the stage for the first time during the 2024 campaign season and speaking warmly about her family’s connections to New York City. 

Some of the speakers who preceded Trump sparked controversy for inflammatory comments they made during the event. Radio host Sid Rosenberg called Hillary Clinton a “sick son of a bitch,” former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is “on the side of the terrorists,” and a childhood friend of Trump’s called Harris the “antichrist.” Perhaps most notably, Tony Hinchcliffe — an insult comic who goes by the stage name Kill Tony — made a series of racial jokes about Palestinians, Jews, black people and Puerto Ricans, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

The joke prompted swift backlash from Democrats and many Republicans. "This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign," Trump campaign senior adviser Danielle Alvarez said in a statement, while Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said the joke was “not funny and it’s not true.” Roughly half of the 615,000 Latino voters in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania are Puerto Rican, and the comment sparked outrage in towns like Allentown, where Trump visited on Tuesday. 

Also on Tuesday, President Joe Biden started a controversy of his own while criticizing the joke, saying the “only garbage I see floating out there are his supporters.” Biden attempted to clarify his comments later, saying he was referring to the rhetoric of Trump’s allies. 

Trump spoke for over an hour at the Garden, delivering the message that he would return stability to the border and restore the pre-Covid economy he oversaw as president. He debuted a tax credit proposal for family caregivers, which was aimed at older Americans and blue-collar workers. He also attacked his opponent, calling Vice President Kamala Harris “a very low-I.Q. individual.” The former president expressed optimism about his electoral chances in New York, urging the crowd to vote and saying that winning New York would be “an honor.” 

“Together, we will make America powerful again, we will make America wealthy again, we will make America healthy again, we will make America strong again, we will make America proud again, we will make America safe again, and we will make America great again,” Trump said to close his speech.

Below, we get into what the right and left are saying about the rally, and then I’ll give my take.

What the right is saying.

• The right criticizes the media’s coverage of the rally, arguing the event was really one of joy and positivity.
• Some push back on the left’s likening of the event to a Nazi rally.
• Others say the best and worst of Trump’s approach to politics were on full display.

In Fox News, Lee Hartley Carter wrote “I was at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally — the left-wing media totally botched its coverage.”

“Contrary to reports painting the event as a gathering of racism, rage, and misogyny, I observed a crowd brimming with joy and camaraderie. Ears ringing from all the chants of ‘USA! USA! USA!,’ I left the venue reflecting on Trump’s latest slogan: ‘Make America Dream Again.’ And, I have to admit, for the first time in a long time, it felt like better days might still be possible,” Carter said. “Others there that night, however, walked away with much darker and foreboding interpretations of the very same event. It’s as if there were two rallies for Trump on Sunday night: one for those who love him and one for those who hate him.”

“Were there dark moments during Trump’s speech? Certainly. I wasn't there early enough to see the ‘comedian’ make his misguided and awful joke about Puerto Rico… Despite some moments of indignation and anger (which Democrats express all the time without all the media pearl clutching) the room was filled with countless uplifting moments of hope and patriotism,” Carter wrote. “Trump resonates with tens of millions of Americans because he doesn’t look down on them. He doesn’t ridicule their lives or the people they are or the things they like. Rather than scolding them, he empowers his followers to dream big again.”

In The New York Post, Lily Zuckerman criticized those who described the event as “Trump’s ‘Nazi rally.’”

“The first thing I noticed was all the Jews. Inside the arena and out, Jews were everywhere: Orthodox Jews wearing kippahs, tzitzit (fringes worn beneath their shirts) and black hats, others wearing Star of David necklaces, still others waving Israeli flags,” Zuckerman said. “I heard several people speaking Hebrew as we waited on a 90-minute line to get in. As my mother, a Conservative rabbi, and I waited, we noticed several outwardly Jewish people politely escorted in as ‘VIP’ guests. What self-respecting Nazi would allow so many Jews to be honored guests at his rally?”

“Kamala Harris’ rallies have been completely unable to muster the same vibrancy and joy that suffused the entire arena Sunday night. They certainly haven’t attracted openly observant Jews — or, for that matter, outwardly religious people of any stripe,” Zuckerman wrote. “The Democrats have leveled their disgraceful, baseless smears equating Trump to Hitler for almost a decade now. But their insults attack not only Trump but the half or more of the American people who support him.”

In The Washington Examiner, W. James Antle III explored “the pros and cons of Trump’s political showmanship.”

“Time will tell whether former President Donald Trump’s massive rally at Madison Square Garden was the beginning of a successful closing argument or the MAGA movement’s electoral swan song,” Antle said. “The event was nevertheless consistent with Trump’s now nearly decade-long political career: risky unscripted events that few people running for office would ever attempt, that drive the news cycle for days but not always to his benefit, from a master showman who has formed a deep emotional connection with his supporters.”

“No matter how much time Trump devotes to his stump speech, the headlines will inevitably be on his most controversial off-script comments. In the social media age, the campaigns circulate snippets of these speeches and many more people hear about Puerto Rico, Arnold Palmer, and eating dogs than will ever hear or watch the whole outing, much less whatever Trump says about trade or tax policy,” Antle wrote. “At the same time, Trump has subscribed to the theory that there is no such thing as bad publicity dating back to his early days in New York real estate… Trump has demonstrated you can outlast adverse headlines, and even calamitous events, because the news cycle moves so quickly.”

What the left is saying.

• The left says the rally epitomized the divisiveness of Trump’s movement.
• Some suggest the event ended up being a show of weakness.
• Others argue Democrats’ flawed strategy allows Trump to remain a force in U.S. politics.  

In The Atlantic, David A. Graham said the rally encapsulated “Trump’s message.”

“A childhood pal of Donald Trump’s called Vice President Kamala Harris ‘the anti-Christ’ and ‘the devil.’ The radio host Sid Rosenberg called her husband, Doug Emhoff, ‘a crappy Jew.’ Tucker Carlson had a riff about Harris vying to be ‘the first Samoan-Malaysian, low-IQ former California prosecutor ever to be elected president,’” Graham wrote. “This—all of this—is the message of Trump’s campaign. Other Republicans may cringe at the coarseness of these comments, or worry that they will cost votes, but they made their choice long ago, and have stuck with them despite years of bigotry and other ugliness.

“Trump is running on nativism, crude stereotypes, and lies about immigrants. He has demeaned Harris in offensive and personal terms. He’s attacked American Jews for not supporting him. His disdain for Puerto Rico is long-standing, and his callousness after Hurricane Maria in 2017 was one of the most appalling moments of an appalling presidency,” Graham said. “The whole point of the rally was provocation. Trump has long demonstrated a view that it’s better when people are talking about him—even if they’re outraged—than talking about anyone else… as an encapsulation of what Trump stands for as a candidate, and what he would bring to office, the rally was an effective medium for his closing message.”

In The New York Times, Jamelle Bouie argued the rally showed “Trump is less confident than he says.”

“Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night was supposed to be the capstone event of his campaign, a triumphant celebration of authoritarian strength… But what works in theory does not always deliver in practice, and in practice, Trump’s climactic rally at Madison Square Garden was nothing short of a disaster,” Bouie wrote. “Did Trump have the crowds he wanted? Yes. But that was the extent of his success that night. His overall message was dark, disturbing and as autocratic as you might expect from a man whose top officials have been warning us about his fascistic tendencies.”

“I’m sure that to some observers, all of this — even the terrible racist jokes — looks like the confidence and resolve of a determined political movement. But I think it’s just the opposite. Far from showing strength, the Madison Square Garden rally showed that however vicious and virulent its leaders and supporters might be, the MAGA movement is a spent and exhausted force, even if it is not yet defeated,” Bouie said. “None of this means that Trump is headed for defeat or that he can’t win. But watching a lackluster rally headlined by the rambling patter of a tired candidate struggling to capture the attention of his audience, it is clear that neither he nor his movement has the juice.”

In Jacobin, Branko Marcetic wrote “Trump’s hateful rally has no real answer from Democrats.”

“It’s too early to say if a piece of arrogance-driven self-sabotage is what the campaign’s incendiary, racist rally at Madison Square Garden last night is going to end up being. But it certainly fits the bill,” Marcetic said. “Yet Trump — a deeply unpopular figure who the majority of the country thinks is dishonest, mean-spirited, and embarrassing — is still a finger away from the presidency for the third time. The hateful, venomous nature of Trump’s political project isn’t going to be exorcized through scolding and finger-wagging but by thorough and conclusive political defeat, and having an alternative political project firmly established in the public’s mind as an actual, viable way forward for the country out of the many things that currently ail it.

“That brings us to the problem. Both of these things are, right now, largely out of our hands and exclusively up to a hapless, incompetent, and corporate-dominated Democratic Party, one that has chosen a risky, already once-failed campaign strategy for this election, was at one point willing to lose disastrously to Trump and Republicans out of loyalty to its frail and unfit leader, and has stubbornly refused, despite nearly a year of efforts by activists, to stop facilitating the nihilistic campaign of mass murder that has divided its supporters and imperiled its election chances.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• I didn’t think we’d cover this event at first, because nothing about Trump’s MSG rally was all that surprising.
• The Puerto Rico joke was bad, and the fallout from the joke could end up being even worse for Trump’s electoral chances.
• I thought some of what the other speakers said was far worse, but in the end all this negative press is overshadowing what Trump hoped would be a powerful closing argument.

When the Madison Square Garden story initially broke, I actually didn't think we'd cover it.

In a lot of ways, it was the typical fare: Trump rallies are and have always been something akin to a carnival. There are guest speakers doing odd bits, preachers and prayer, comedians and musical performances, jokes and policy, insults and anger, and then — always — Trump himself bringing the show home with a little bit of everything. Trump’s New York event featured a massive lineup of guests; a huge sold-out arena; and an hours-long tour de force of classic campaign puffery, surprise policy rollouts, and complete and utter nonsense. 

Many readers were abuzz over this particular event. Some wrote in asking me how I felt about Trump's "Nazi" rally at Madison Square Garden, despite the fact it was a rally heavily attended by Jews and, actually, more diverse than pretty much any Republican event I had seen in the last few years. Since it apparently isn't obvious, Trump wasn't holding a rally at the Garden to call back to 1930s fascism; he was doing it because New York Republicans are key to maintaining control of the House, because he is a New Yorker himself, because he feels he was unjustly persecuted in New York, and because there is nothing more meaningful to New York entertainers than selling out a show at the Garden.

And then "the joke" happened. Or, to put it more acutely, the joke got traction in the press.

My initial reaction to Tony Hinchcliffe quipping that “there’s a literal floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” was much closer to Jon Stewart's than anyone else's. The guy is an insult comedian — a roast specialist. What did people think he was going to do? 

He rants about women, Jews, black people, Arabs, white people, and everyone under the sun — and he hit almost every group at the rally. I happen to think he can be pretty funny. If you were familiar with his work (like I am), or even saw him at the roast of Tom Brady (which I did), then you'd know that — like most comedians — he gets a great thrill out of pushing the line. Honestly, the joke about Puerto Rico is far from the most incendiary bit from one of his sets that I've seen.

So, I found the initial reaction to be overkill and was surprised that it got so much traction. But there's no doubt the blowback is real and meaningful. Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens — often underappreciated and forgotten citizens. The island is a beautiful place, and its people have a lot of pride not just in where they come from but the fact that they are both American and Puerto Rican. There's something about this moment in particular, with Puerto Rico fighting to become a U.S. state and Puerto Ricans becoming a more relevant voting bloc, that felt like kindling before the controversy that this joke sparked.

How do we know it matters? Well, look at how the campaigns reacted. Organizers on the ground in Pennsylvania started activating around the issue. Kamala Harris's team immediately cut an ad around the comments. And, perhaps most obviously, the Trump team immediately distanced itself from the comments (an extremely rare thing these days) and a slew of Republicans disavowed them. All of this is to say nothing of the fact that the joke totally overshadowed Trump’s policy proposal to give tax credits to caregivers, which pretty much nobody is talking about (though the proposal's details are sparse).

Last week, I wrote how I categorize stories about "things Trump said" into four buckets. One bucket I did not include was "things Trump's supporters say" that get him into hot water — but in retrospect, it could have easily been included. After all, the campaign reportedly cut a joke from Hinchcliffe's set where he called Harris a "c*nt," which implies that they vetted the material and still let the joke about Puerto Rico fly. It was a silly and reckless move from a campaign well positioned to win this election but still often prone to getting in its own way.

Of course, it would be the irony of all ironies if — after everything Trump or his allies have said or joked about in the last nine years — a joke from an insult comic actually meaningfully impacted this race. Doubly so given Biden's rejoinder on Tuesday, when he inexplicably referred to Trump supporters as "garbage" while Harris was trying to drive a news cycle with her final major speech of the race. Some Democrats and even reporters in the press have tried to deny it’s what Biden said — even going so far as to deceitfully edit the transcript. But you can watch the clip for yourself. 

To me, far more worrisome than any joke from Hinchcliffe was the lineup of actual politicians, pundits and friends of Trump calling his opponent the antichrist, claiming Harris was "on the side of the terrorists," or proclaiming that they would not believe the results if Harris wins. The rally featured plenty of things for supporters to get excited about or critics to fret over, but an off-color joke should be pretty far down either list. 

Take the survey: How does Trump’s New York rally impact your voting decision? Let us know!

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Your questions, answered.

Q: What percentage of the GOP was voting for Haley in the primary well after Trump had it locked up; where are they now in terms of being likely voters and who they'll vote for (or not vote, etc...)?

— Anonymous from Sterling, MA

Tangle: To answer the second question first, the proportion of primary voters who go against the eventual nominee after the race is assured is usually a good indication of dissatisfaction among the base. A good deal of those voters will definitely not be voting for Trump in 2024 — but a considerable number of them will.

In many ways, predicting what that proportion will be is just an educated guessing game.

That said, let’s get into the numbers on the first question. On March 5, Donald Trump cruised to a commanding victory on Super Tuesday of the Republican primaries. The next day, Nikki Haley dropped out. Republicans held caucuses in several states over the next two weeks, but let’s look at some of the more contentious ones in the cycle more closely: Arizona, Florida, and Georgia. Haley won 17.8% in Arizona, 13.9% in Florida (where DeSantis won 3.7%), and 13.2% in Georgia. 

By comparison, the “uncommitted” vote in Michigan that could prove seismic in this election won 13.2% against then-candidate Biden. So, the raw comparison makes it very easy to say that the protest coalition within Trump’s party is stronger than the protest coalition among Democrats. 

But also consider that more Republicans voted in the primaries than Democrats (just look at the discrepancy in Michigan), so it could be that more Republican voters cared enough to show up to vote against Trump that we know of (or independent voters cared enough to register to do so), while an even larger number of voters weren’t motivated to show up at all for the Democratic primary (which makes sense, as Biden faced no meaningful challenge). 

While the answer to your second question may well provide the key to this election, an equally decisive question may be how many anti-Harris voters are going to stay home.

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

The social media platform X (formerly Twitter) feeds users a steady stream of political content regardless of their stated interests, according to an experiment conducted by reporters at The Wall Street Journal. The reporters created new accounts on the platform and indicated they were interested in nonpolitical subjects like cooking and crafts during the sign-up process. After their accounts were made, however, they found that roughly half of the posts in their “For You” feed (which recommends posts that X’s algorithm thinks will be of interest to a specific user) were political in nature. A pro-Kamala Harris account appeared most frequently, but right-leaning content was more prevalent overall. Additionally, the platform often suggested Elon Musk, X’s owner, as the first account for a new user to follow. The Wall Street Journal has the story.

Numbers.

• 19,500. Madison Square Garden’s capacity. 
• 15.9. Kamala Harris’s polling lead over Donald Trump in New York as of October 29, according to FiveThirtyEight.
• 23.2. Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Donald Trump in New York in 2020.
• 22.7. Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory over Trump in New York in 2016.
• 1917. The year Puerto Ricans were conferred statutory U.S. citizenship (though only Puerto Ricans with residence in one of the 50 states or Washington, D.C., can vote in federal elections). 
• 3.7%. The percentage of Pennsylvanians who are of Puerto Rican origin. 
• 1.2%. The percentage of North Carolinians who are of Puerto Rican origin. 
• 1.1%. The percentage of Georgians and Wisconsinites who are of Puerto Rican origin.

The extras.

• One year ago today we wrote a special edition on Dean Phillips running for president, featuring an exclusive interview with Phillips.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was a link within an ad in the free version to an article in The Dispatch.
• Nothing to do with politics: A Yankees fan rips a foul ball out of Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts’s glove during the World Series.
• Yesterday’s survey: 1,948 readers responded to our survey asking about The Los Angeles Times and Washington Post not endorsing a presidential candidate this year with 58% supporting the decision in principle but opposing the timing. “I don't care if a paper endorses or not but to pull one at the last minute is very suspect,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

The RMS Titanic has fascinated individuals far and wide since its wreck in 1912. One Georgia-based company — RMS Titanic, Inc. — recently made an exciting discovery while living out its mission to preserve the ship’s legacy: On an expedition to the ocean floor, researchers found a statue of the Greek goddess Diana that had once sat atop the fireplace mantle onboard the vessel. James Penca, a member of the discovery team, said, “It’s truly a needle in a haystack that is two-and-a-half miles underwater in pitch black darkness.” Good News Network has the story.

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