Tangle - The Trump White House comes into focus.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

Are you new here? Get free emails to your inbox daily. Would you rather listen? You can find our podcast here.

Today's read: 15 minutes.

Where else to read Tangle.

Looking for more Tangle coverage? Just in case you’re one of our thousands of new readers or weren’t already aware, Tangle has an X and Instagram account where we routinely post about things we don’t cover in the newsletter. If you’re interested, give us a follow! 

Quick hits.

1. Decision Desk HQ projected that House Republicans will retain their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Republicans majorities in both chambers of Congress. (The projection)
2. The Israeli military announced an expansion of the humanitarian zone in southern Gaza. The move comes days before the Biden administration’s deadline for Israel to deliver more aid to the enclave or risk a cutoff of military supplies. (The expansion)
3. The United Nations climate change conference, known as COP29, began on Monday in Azerbaijan. Attending countries endorsed carbon credit quality standards to support a U.N.-backed global carbon market that would fund projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (The conference)
4. Haiti’s international airport shut down after gangs opened fire at commercial flights near Port-Au-Prince, the country’s capital. The U.S. Embassy said the incidents are part of gang-led efforts to block travel to and from Port-au-Prince. (The shootings)
5. New York Judge Juan Merchan postponed his ruling on whether to dismiss President-elect Trump’s conviction in his “hush money” case due to the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity. Merchan will now rule on November 19. (The delay)

Today's topic.

Donald Trump’s cabinet. In the week since his electoral victory, President-elect Trump has begun announcing his picks for his cabinet and key White House staff. These selections offer the first glimpse of the president-elect’s governing priorities and the leaders who will work to enact his agenda. 

Refresher: The president’s cabinet is composed of the vice president, 10 federal officials and the executive heads of the 15 federal agencies, like the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and others. Cabinet members are appointed by the president and all but the vice president and chief of staff require Senate confirmation (White House staff also do not require Senate confirmation). In addition to their roles within the federal government, cabinet members are also typically the president’s closest advisers.

Trump’s first high-profile staffing decision was to name Susie Wiles as his White House chief of staff. Wiles is a longtime Republican strategist who is credited with helping Sen. Rick Scott (FL) win his senate seat in 2010 and Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) win his gubernatorial election in 2018. During the 2024 campaign, she served as Trump’s de facto campaign adviser, and she also advised his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. Wiles will become the first woman to serve as White House chief of staff. 

Additionally, Trump will reportedly tap Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller was a senior adviser and lead speechwriter in the first Trump administration, during which he advocated for a more restrictive immigration policy. Miller is expected to play a leading role in carrying out Trump’s plan to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants. Relatedly, Trump announced that former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Tom Homan will serve as his “border czar” responsible for overseeing the deportation effort. 

In the last two days, Trump has announced several of his picks to lead federal agencies and fill other key roles. Those nominees are:

• Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN). Stefanik is the chair of the House Republican Conference and the only woman in House Republican leadership. She has criticized the United Nations, particularly over its approach to Israeli-Palestinian relations, and recently suggested that the Biden administration should consider a “complete reassessment” of U.S. funding for the UN if it continues to consider revoking Israel’s UN membership.
• Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Zeldin served four terms in the House before challenging New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the state’s 2022 gubernatorial election, which he lost by a smaller-than-expected margin.
• Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) for White House National Security Adviser. Waltz is a Green Beret veteran who served in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa, and he has served in the House since 2019. 
• Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for Secretary of State. Rubio, a senator since 2011, is seen as a foreign policy hawk who has staked out hardline positions against China and Iran, in particular. 
• Gov. Kristi Noem (R-ND) for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Noem is a staunch supporter of Trump and was at one point considered a leading candidate to be his running mate in 2024. As the DHS head, Noem would oversee offices like Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Secret Service. 

Today, we’ll explore Trump’s first high-level appointments, with perspectives from the left and right. Then, my take. 

What the left is saying.

• The left says that Trump’s picks of Homan and Miller foreshadow a harsh immigration agenda. 
• Some say that Wiles will face unique challenges as chief of staff compared to her campaign manager role. 
• Others suggest Trump is building a cabinet in his image. 

In The Atlantic, David A. Graham said Trump’s picks signal “that he’s serious about mass deportation.”

“Was Donald Trump serious about his most draconian plans for a second term?... If personnel is policy, as the Ronald Reagan–era maxim states, then the president-elect is deadly serious,” Graham wrote. The selections of Tom Homan and Stephen Miller indicate “Trump’s intent to pursue a very aggressive policy and assign it a high priority. Miller, who served as a Trump speechwriter and top adviser previously, has been a hard-liner on immigration for his entire career. He has spent the past four years building America First Legal, a nonprofit devoted to fighting for conservative causes.”

“If Miller is the architect of mass deportation, Homan will be the builder… Homan was a career law-enforcement and border official, but his profile changed under Trump as he became a prominent figure, praising Trump for ‘taking the shackles off’ ICE officers,” Graham said. “Homan retired around the time Trump was forced to end that policy, frustrated that the Senate would not confirm him. As border czar, he will likely not require confirmation—though the new Republican Senate majority is expected to be more accommodating to Trump.”

In MSNBC, Hayes Brown suggested the odds of Susie Wiles serving a prolonged tenure as Trump’s chief of staff “aren’t great.”

“Getting placed in this role is something of a cursed reward for Wiles’ loyalty throughout the campaign. It was her strategy that propelled Trump to a second term after four years out of office, and she survived at the top of his campaign in a way that few other operatives did over his previous two presidential races. It seems highly unlikely, based on precedent, that the same will be said about her time in the White House,” Brown wrote. “Trump blew through three (and a half) chiefs of staff during his four years in office. The first, former Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus, lasted only six months in the job. He was utterly unable to handle the chaos that Trump actively encouraged in his first months in office as multiple nexuses of power struggled for control.”

“None of this history particularly bodes well for the proposition that Wiles can bring the discipline that she attempted to impose on the campaign over to the White House with her — at least not for very long. But she does have two things going for her,” Brown said. “The first is that she seems to be aware there are limits to how many times Trump can be told ‘no’ before he turns against the messenger… The second thing is that Wiles doesn’t appear to be the kind of person who wants to take the spotlight away from Trump.”

In CNN, Stephen Collinson wrote “Trump’s emerging team of loyalists is primed for a fast start in his second term.”

“Donald Trump is doing exactly what his sweeping election win entitled him to do by systematically building a governing team in his own hardline MAGA image. What may end up as the modern age’s most right-wing West Wing will target Washington elites and undocumented migrants, seek to shred the regulatory state and tell the rest of the world that from now on, it’s America First,” Collinson said. “Trump is likely to nominate Marco Rubio as secretary of state… The Florida senator crudely mocked Trump on the 2016 campaign trail and was seen as the kind of neoconservative whom the president-elect’s fans love to hate. But Rubio has long since converted to Trumpism.”

“The likes of Rubio, Waltz, Stefanik, Zeldin, Homan, Noem and especially Miller are anathema to Trump critics who fear that the president-elect will head off in extreme directions. But each of these picks personifies one aspect of the president-elect’s political beliefs and instincts. And their own positions reflect the desire for shakeups in Washington and in US global policy that motivated many of the tens of millions of voters in Trump’s election majority.”

What the right is saying.

• The right supports Trump's choices, particularly Homan as border czar. 
• Some say Wiles’s selection as chief of staff is a strong pick and a rebuke of Trump’s critics. 
• Others say Rubio was a prudent pick for secretary of state. 

In PJ Media, Robert Spencer praised Homan’s “tough message” on the border. 

“The man whom Donald Trump has tapped to succeed Kamala Harris as border czar couldn’t be more perfect if he was sent over from central casting. Tom Homan is tough, plain-spoken, clear-sighted about what needs to be done to end the border crisis, and determined to do the job and do it right,” Spencer said. “There are going to be plenty of people whom Homan will need to get out of the way. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey said recently that ‘every tool in the toolbox has got to be used to protect our citizens, to protect our residents and protect our states and to hold the line on democracy and the rule of law as a basic principle.’”

“Homan was skeptical, wondering aloud if at least some of this tough talk was mere bluster or else a refusal to accept the reality that others were having to face whether they wanted to or not… Regarding Healey’s defiance, Homan added, ‘If you don’t want to work with us, then get the hell out all the way, we’re going to do it,’” Spencer wrote. “That was refreshing to hear in light of the fact that illegal migrants are, after all, illegal.”

In USA Today, Ingrid Jacques said “​​Trump picks a powerful woman as his chief of staff. What do the haters say now?”

“Ahead of the election, billionaire businessman Mark Cuban claimed on ‘The View’ that former President Donald Trump eschewed strong women and that he found them ‘intimidating.’ ‘Donald Trump, you never see him around strong, intelligent women ever,’ Cuban said. ‘It’s just that simple,’” Jacques wrote. “Now that Trump has once again won the presidency (thanks in part to strong women supporting him — more on that shortly), he’s proving just how wrong that accusation was.”

“During his campaign, Trump didn’t go around promising to appoint anyone in his administration because of their sex. That makes this appointment that much more meaningful. Trump chose Wiles because he thought she’d be the best one to do the job. Period,” Jacques said. “In contrast, President Joe Biden picked women because he promised to. During his 2020 campaign, Biden swore he’d choose a woman as vice president. And when it came time to nominate a Supreme Court justice, he said it would be a ‘Black woman.’ I found that strategy demeaning, and it cheapened the honor for the women who ultimately got those jobs.”

In The New York Post, A.G. Gancarski argued Rubio is “the right choice” for secretary of state. 

“Of all the people on the short list — Senate colleague Bill Hagerty and former Acting Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell among them — the 53-year-old Miami Republican is best suited to accomplish Trump’s foreign-policy aims,” Gancarski wrote. “Rubio shows a clear-eyed view of America’s myriad challenges on the global stage. We’re well past the ‘indispensable nation’ era of globalism espoused by figures like former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and America — with $36 trillion in debt, much of it accrued from previous decades’ foreign conflicts — needs to pick its spots.”

“Trump has positioned himself as an honest broker in helping to litigate a peace between Russia and Ukraine, and Rubio would understand the assignment: to get that done in a way that protects America’s interest and gives both sides in that brutal war a chance at peace with honor. The senator has also been clear-eyed about the situation in Israel. And it hasn’t been simple observation and pontification from afar; he was in the country this year,” Gancarski said. “He speaks the language, and he understands the issues in play — specifically, the historic struggle pitting freedom and capitalism against socialism and despotism.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• Trump’s appointees make it clear he’s going to follow through on tough immigration policies. 
• Other than Kristi Noem, these picks are serious people and show that Trump is better prepared than he was for his first term.
• Trump’s foreign policy picks are hardliners on China and Iran, and the most unabashedly pro-Israel cabinet we’ve seen in some time.

A few days ago, Vivek Ramaswamy said a "band of small-government revolutionaries will save our nation." Elon Musk, who has been sitting in on some very important phone calls with Trump, endorsed the post. I reacted by stating what I think is obvious by this point:

Trump does not need a band of small-government loyalists, because Trump is not going to be a small-government president.

He is calling for mass deportations, new healthcare reform, immigration reform, massive tax cuts, holistic child care policy, reducing housing costs, and major foreign policy resets — these efforts require heavy-handed government, and they require people who know how the government works. People with experience. People, in many cases, from the "establishment."

One of Trump's mistakes in his first term (one he and his team were willing to openly admit before election season) is that he was not prepared to navigate Washington, D.C. Veterans of Trump’s administration often claim insiders in the cabinet and in other high-ranking posts worked against Trump (i.e. “the deep state”), and it’s true that Trump appointed some people who fundamentally opposed his worldview. But it's also true that Trump gave a lot of power to his family, friends, and private-sector associates who were not experienced enough, did not have the right relationships, and struggled mightily to get basic things done due to staff infighting or simple incompetence.

Trump does not appear to be making that mistake this time. On domestic policy, he is finding loyal supporters with government experience who can bridge the gap between the old GOP establishment and the ascendent new-right, and everything he's done so far suggests he fully intends to follow through on his mass deportation plan and a calculated deregulatory effort. On the international side, Trump is staffing up for an administration whose top priority will be challenging and limiting China’s influence. And for all the criticisms of how Biden-Harris handled the war in Gaza, the team Trump is bringing in appears far more unabashedly pro-Israel than any administration I can remember — a reality I'm not sure the left has fully confronted.

I’ll give my reads on each individual pick, starting domestically. Trump's new chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is a serious and experienced person respected across the conservative movement. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) is about as good a selection for head of the EPA as a concerned environmentalist could have hoped for: He's a former member of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus and Conservative Climate Caucus who spent eight years in Congress — Democrats will have someone to work with, not necessarily “resist,” at every turn.

It’s very clear where Trump is going on immigration: Stephen Miller was tapped as deputy chief of staff, and will be on the frontlines of an immigration lockdown. Appointing Tom Homan to be the new "border czar" is the strongest signal yet that Trump is going to follow through on his effort to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants. He's already gone on Fox News to warn any "criminals and gang members" here illegally, saying, "we're coming for you."  Once known as a moderate when he ran ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) under Obama, Homan has since become a champion of Trump's most hardline immigration policies, and he remains a proponent of family separations. He's also one of the contributors to Project 2025.

Internationally, we are starting to get a clearer picture, too. Not that there should have been any doubt, but Trump's administration is shaping up to be far more pro-Israel, anti-China, and hardline on Iran than what we saw under Biden.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), the first Green Beret ever elected to Congress, is a little more green than past national security advisors, but he's also a combat veteran who served as chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and was a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. For a taste of what's coming, you might remember that Waltz wanted the U.S. to boycott the Beijing Olympics — calling him a “China hawk” is probably an understatement.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is rumored to be the pick for secretary of state. It's a fascinating pick, one that I think Israeli newspaper Haaretz accurately described as an attempt to bridge the GOP's “hawk-isolationist divide” (Rubio has occupied both of those spaces). He, too, has hardline positions on China and Iran, once suggesting the U.S. should consider a direct attack on Iran. Rubio has also said Hamas was "100 percent to blame" for any Palestinian deaths in Gaza, expressed unwavering support for Israeli military action in Lebanon, and supported calls to revoke visas and deport international students protesting against Israel.  

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was picked to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is one of the most pro-Israel voices in Congress. She led efforts to investigate antisemitism on college campuses, famously questioning college presidents in a way that led to some resignations. She criticized a weapons pause to Israel for preventing "total victory" in Gaza, and she suggested the U.S. should do a complete "reassessment of U.S. funding" for the United Nations after the Palestinian Authority tried to expel Israel from the UN for human rights abuses in Gaza.

The only pick so far that really made me go "yikes" was the choice of Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) for Homeland Security. Noem obviously has some experience — serving as a state executive is one of the most important and difficult jobs there is, and she won reelection in a landslide in 2022. Before that, she spent five years as a state representative and then eight more years in Congress, so she’s no political novice.

But this is one of the most powerful jobs in the country, and her policy record on the signature Trump issue of immigration is scant. Aside from supporting Trump's so-called "Muslim ban" she legislated very little on the issue in Congress and, naturally, has not had much of a role to play on immigration as governor of South Dakota. She hasn't exactly proven herself capable of navigating the national spotlight, either. 

As pro-Trump pundit Sean Davis put it, “Trump hasn’t announced this on Truth Social, so let’s hope it’s not true. Noem is a lightweight and a completely unserious person, and she is not remotely suited to the most important border security cabinet position in the entire government.”

On net, nothing about these appointments is too shocking. Some people who spend too much time on social media might be surprised Trump has tapped some more traditional, hawkish foreign policy people, but I’m not. I expect he’ll continue to staff up at the intersection of experience and loyalty, with hardliners on immigration, China, Iran, and government regulations.

Take the survey: What do you think of Trump’s recent appointments? Let us know!

Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.

Help share Tangle.

I'm a firm believer that our politics would be a little bit better if everyone were reading balanced news that allows room for debate, disagreement, and multiple perspectives. If you can take 15 seconds to share Tangle with a few friends I'd really appreciate it — just click the button below and pick some people to email it to!

• Email Tangle to a friend by clicking here.
• Share Tangle on X/Twitter by clicking here.
• Share Tangle on Facebook by clicking here.

Your questions, answered.

Q: I love the Tangle surveys. I found it interesting that a strong majority were going to vote Harris and in another survey this week a strong majority approved of her concession speech. I view Tangle as “center-left.” I wonder how Tangle might be made more attractive to the “center-right.” Perhaps aiming to receive survey responses that are more balanced could be used as an indicator of Tangle tracking more to the “center-center” thereby minimizing perceived or unconscious bias.

— Anonymous from Colorado Springs, CO

Tangle: I was not at all surprised that our readership widely approved of Harris's concession speech (you can see the results in “The extras” below). It earned plaudits from across the political spectrum and, in this incredibly divisive time, rightfully so. That poll result didn't really interest me much, and I would expect the kind of people who read Tangle to also appreciate a straightforward concession speech.

However, I was pretty shocked by our survey result showing 72% of our readers said they were voting for Harris. For five years, our audience has consistently self-identified as about 35-40% liberal, 30-35% conservative, and 30% "independent" or "other."  I was even more shocked after the election — which made it clear a lot of moderates and centrists broke for Trump, not Harris, and that a lot of Republicans came home to the party. So, I have a few theories about how to explain those responses, and the "right" explanation might be one of them, a combination of them, or something else I'm not thinking of:

Theory 1: Just days before we ran that survey, our work was featured prominently by NPR's This American Life. It's hard to overstate the massive impact this had on us. Our newsletter went from about 150,000 readers to over 250,000 in a week, and our memberships and podcast listenership close to doubled. These days, NPR listeners tend to lean left in their politics, so I think the most likely explanation is that this rather large group of new subscribers has shifted our readership to the left.

Theory 2: Trump voters who read Tangle, much like Trump voters nationally, are just less interested in or comfortable telling a news outlet how they’ll vote. Our email survey is very un-scientific (it's mostly just for fun), and maybe we are just getting some skewed results because of participation rates. About 3,700 of our over 200,000 on our mailing list took the survey, and we don’t do anything to ensure our survey respondents accurately reflect a random sample of our readership. 

Theory 3: It's possible that Tangle is, as you presume, "center-left." Again: I'd reject this notion. We've been rated by numerous media bias watchdogs as both "center" and "factually accurate" (with audiences and panels rating us both center-right and center-left). But if our coverage (or "my take") has leaned center-left during the campaign season, the poll results may just be a reflection of that. I don’t think that’s true, but even if it is I’d have to have been pretty persuasive to skew our readers that much, and I suspect Theory 1 and Theory 2 are much more at play; but it's worth throwing this out there, too.

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

As the dust settles from the 2024 presidential election, one trend has stood out: Independent voters made their voices heard. For the first time since Edison Research began conducting exit polling in 2004, independents' share of overall turnout exceeded that of one of the major political parties. Self-identified independent turnout (34%) — up by 8% over 2020 — was higher than Democratic turnout (32%) and equal to Republican turnout. Vice President Kamala Harris won independents by five points over former President Donald Trump, but Trump improved on his 2020 performance with independents by four points. Reuters has the story.

Numbers.

• 1789. The year that President George Washington sent his first nomination for thehis first cabinet member in United States history: — Alexander Hamilton for Secretary of the Treasury. 
• 4. The initial number of secretaries in Washington’s cabinet (the Attorney General and secretaries of War, State, and Treasury). 
• 1798. The year that a fifth cabinet position was added (Department of the Navy). 
• 1921. The year that the vice president was first invited to join the president’s cabinet (President Warren G. Harding invited Vice President Calvin Coolidge). 
• 29%. The percentage of Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees at the start of his first term who had prior military experience.
• 57%. The percentage of Trump’s cabinet nominees at the start of his first term who had prior government experience.
• 24%. The percentage of Trump’s cabinet nominees at the start of his first term who had previously served as CEOs. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we had just released a fiery debate on Israel-Palestine.
• The most clicked link in Thursday’s newsletter was the solved mystery song.
• Nothing to do with politics: A ransomware crew demanded payment in the form of baguettes.
• Thursday’s survey: 2,230 readers responded to our survey asking about Kamala Harris’s concession speech with 70% strongly approving of the speech. “I agree she wasn’t a perfect candidate…but she gave a perfect concession speech. We have to start looking at each other as Americans first Republicans and Democrats second. We are after all patriots,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

Harriet Tubman, known as the “Moses” of the Underground Railroad, served in the Civil War as a nurse and spy and helped over 700 enslaved people reach freedom. While Tubman has long been seen as a hero for her role in the Underground Railroad, her service was recently recognized in a new way. On Veterans Day, the Maryland National Guard and Governor Wes Moore posthumously commissioned Tubman as a one-star general in a decision that was unanimously supported in the Maryland General Assembly. “I am proud to call Brig. Gen. Harriet Tubman among the best of us,” said Major General Janeen Birckhead. “With courage and selflessness, Harriet Tubman nobly advanced the survival of the Union and the proposition that all people are created equal.” CNN has the story.

Don't forget...

📣 Share Tangle on Twitter here, Facebook here, or LinkedIn here.

🎧 We have a podcast you can listen to here.

🎥 Follow us on Instagram here or subscribe to our YouTube channel here

💵 If you like our newsletter, drop some love in our tip jar.

🎉 Want to reach 250,000+ people? Fill out this form to advertise with us.

📫 Forward this to a friend and tell them to subscribe (hint: it's here).

🛍 Love clothes, stickers and mugs? Go to our merch store!