2PM - Memo: The Distressed Brand

BRIEF (🔓): The thing about black boxes is that the software stack is wonderful when it works. It’s a crisis when it doesn’t.

On November 25, 2024, Shopify experienced a significant outage with Shop Pay Installments, powered by Affirm, during one of the most critical shopping weeks of the year. As consumers flooded eCommerce sites in anticipation of Black Friday deals, the failure of this key payment feature disrupted countless checkout processes, costing merchants both revenue and consumer trust. The incident serves as a glaring reminder of the risks tied to over-reliance on a single provider for essential services in the modern retail ecosystem.

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Ad Tech Deals Soar on Upbeat Forecasts

Axios: M&A activity across ad tech, martech and digital content was up 13% in Q3 of 2024 compared to the prior quarter and up 20% compared to Q3 of 2023, per data from Luma Partners. For ad tech, specifically, M&A volume was up 118% year-over-year and up 26% quarter-over-quarter.

Ad Buyers Double Down on Walmart's Retail Media Business

Digiday: As the retail media arms race continues, Walmart has strengthened its foothold, and, in doing so, it's also stepped further out of Amazon's shadow.

Target’s Slide From Cheap Chic to Dull Chore

WSJ: Customers have long bragged about their cheap-chic Target purchases. Now, many are griping about items missing on shelves, long checkout lines and products locked up to prevent theft. 

Target's decline, overshadowed by Walmart and Amazon, mirrors the diminishing effectiveness of the direct-to-consumer (DTC) pipeline feeding its shelves. Once a reliable strategy for emerging brands to scale, the model struggles as DTC brands face profitability challenges. With consumers prioritizing price and convenience, Target's reliance on DTC partnerships now appears outpaced by Walmart's cost advantage and Amazon's expansive ecosystem.

Chinese Fast Fashion May Be in The Line of Fire

Business Insider: If Trump imposes a 10% universal tariff on all imports and an additional 60% to 100% tariff on goods from China, apparel prices would increase between 12.5% and 20.6%, the NRF wrote in the report.

Sponsor Supported Data: PayPal leads with 45% adoption, underscoring its stronghold in peer-to-peer and eCommerce transactions. Stripe, favored for its developer-friendly API, follows with 17%, while Shopify Pay Installments reflects the growing BNPL trend with 15%. Smaller players like Klarna and Affirm struggle for traction despite a surging BNPL market. The data points to an evolving ecosystem where ease of integration, trust, and innovation define success, mirroring the ongoing disruption in fintech driven by mobile-first solutions and regulatory tailwinds.

The Influencer Lawsuit That Could Change The Industry

Verge: A first-of-its-kind lawsuit between Amazon influencers Sydney Nicole Gifford and Alyssa Sheil could rewrite the laws of copyright and flip the creator industry upside down. Who owns the "clean girl" look?

2025 Outlook: Sports

Brand Innovators: Lacking a major tentpole event like the Olympic Games or World Cup in 2025, sports marketers will focus on the blocking and tackling work of building audiences by targeting sports fans using data and engaging on social media and gaming platforms to build excitement around events.

Bringing Attitude, and Exclusivity, to the World of Running Gear

NYT: Bandit wants to "evolve running," and the apparel company will be in the spotlight during the New York City Marathon.

Vuori Doesn't Need Money. Investors Keep Knocking Anyway.

Retail Dive: A recent $825 million fundraise from General Atlantic and Stripes tipped the brand into the $5 billion valuation range. Investor Jon Kossow says the company still doesn't need the cash to fund its own operations.

Will HeyDude Trip Up Crocs' Winning Streak?

BOF: With the company's signature clogs seeing slower growth, turning around the struggling maker of casual, sneaker-like loafers is a priority - and Sydney Sweeney has been enlisted to help.

November Update, presented by Bold Metrics. The latest update brings a dynamic look at the market. Brands like PrettyLittleThing (+44) and Burrow (+91) are notable risers, showcasing the impact of aggressive marketing, platform improvements, and consumer engagement strategies. This upward momentum contrasts sharply with MoM performance declines seen by brands like Mejuri (-53) and Liquid IV (-38), indicating possible struggles with customer retention, increased competition, or challenges in scaling operations.

The pronounced shifts reflect broader trends in consumer preferences. Health and wellness brands continue their ascent, buoyed by heightened demand for lifestyle products, while apparel and accessory brands show mixed performance, likely affected by changes in consumer spending habits and the economic climate.

Additionally, the data highlights a trend of consolidation in the industry. Many of the significant declines coincide with recent acquisitions, suggesting transitional challenges or strategic pivots post-acquisition that might not have resonated with their existing customer bases.

This month's fastest growers: 

800+ Brands Measured

Haul Culture is Fueling Returns. What Can Brands Do?

Vogue Business: Meanwhile, social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram have popularised haul culture: showing off and reviewing large quantities of purchased items. This behaviour encourages over-purchasing, often with the intent to return most of the items after creating content. For young people, the emphasis is on appearance and participation in trends, not necessarily long-term ownership.

Streetwear Has Lost Its Popularity. Is That a Good Thing?

High Snobiety: Studies show that streetwear has lost its popularity, especially among Gen Z, however, there's evidence that this isn't a bad thing.

Editor's Note: the article suggests that the "quiet luxury" movement has taken its place. 

The 25 Best Streamers on the Internet Right Now, Ranked

Complex: From Kick creators like Adin Ross to Twitch broadcasters such as HasanAbi to YouTube streamers like IShowSpeed, these are the 25 greatest livestreamer...

The opposite of brand equity isn’t no equity; it’s brand apathy. This is when a brand can appear to succeed financially while diminishing in stature. How many of your favorite brands have followed the same path you’ll read about below? There are lessons for anyone who ever dares to build from scratch. So, the brand was anonymized for the sake of this essay. Why?

A brand’s life cycle often mirrors a parabola: the rise, the zenith, and, for some, the descent. And for a small few: a resurgence. What happens when a once-vibrant brand begins to flicker, showing signs of an identity crisis and operational fatigue? For one brand, the streets have noticed, and the chorus of commentary grows louder by the day.

In the ever-dynamic world of cultural fashion, authenticity isn’t just a buzzword—it’s the currency that makes or breaks loyalty. Today, we delve into the case of a brand once considered untouchable in its space, now grappling with the realities of technical growth and brand apathy.

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