PitchBook News - Why VCs should slow down

Also: Are private funds primed for a post-election pop?; The rise of evergreen funds; November returns by sector and more; Research on Japan and DACH
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December 7, 2024
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The rise of evergreen funds: Do you know what to expect regarding liquidity constraints and the fee structures of perpetual capital vehicles? On Wednesday, our LP-focused webinar will discuss these topics and more. Register here.

November returns: US equities markets boomed last month, while performance was varied in other geographies. For a breakdown of results across a range of indexes and sectors, read our new Global Markets Snapshot.

Around the world: We had a big week for regional-focused research, so be sure to check out our latest market updates on Japan, DACH, and Australia.
 
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From deployment speed to returns: The role of pacing in VC
Timing the market is a fool's errand.

This axiom has long been embraced by savvy LPs who diversify commitments across cycles and vintages to smooth returns and mitigate risk.

VCs would do well to adopt a similar mindset, pacing their investments to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends or overreacting to short-term market conditions.

The reward? Resilience and readiness to capitalize on opportunities, no matter the cycle.

We explored the relationship between VC fund deployment speed and performance, specifically focusing on the first year of a fund's life as a measure of its initial response to prevailing market conditions while also leveraging our updated VC Dealmaking Indicator methodology.

During the 2020-2021 VC boom, fund managers responded to a frothy market with unprecedented speed. By the end of their first year, 2021 vintage funds had already called 36% of their commitments—reflecting the dealmaking frenzy of the time.

However, the aftermath is now evident: stalled exits, extended timelines, and down rounds.

In contrast, funds launched in 2022 have shown more restraint, deploying just 21% of their commitments in the first year, while 2023 funds have been even slower on average, deploying 14% after one year.
 
Click for a big version of this view on VC fund deployment.

Looking more broadly over the last two decades, funds that deployed capital more slowly in their first year outperformed their faster-deploying counterparts, delivering an aggregate 11.6% net IRR compared to 10%.

Why? Slower pacing often aligns with more disciplined investing, avoiding the pitfalls of overpaying in frothy markets.

Using history as a guide, fast deployment hasn't been a winning strategy, but there are instances when market timing has worked.

Funds that rushed into deals during downturns like the Global Financial Crisis struggled, while those with patience and measured pacing emerged stronger. However, as the market began recovering post-GFC, the advantage shifted.

Fast-deployment funds in the 2010-2014 vintage cohort captured outsized gains, with top-decile funds achieving excess IRRs of 20.1%, compared to 11.4% for slow-deployment peers.

This pattern highlights a key takeaway: market timing can be fruitful if done well, but in most periods it's better to take a disciplined approach to capital deployment.

For LPs, understanding deployment speed isn't just a metric—it's a window into a fund's strategy and discipline, as well as the general frothiness of the market.

With VC dealmaking starting to bounce back, LPs should keep a watchful eye on the pace their managers are putting capital to work.

For a deeper dive into these dynamics, explore our free research: Does Slow and Steady Win the Race?
 
Have a great weekend,

Miles Ostroff
Associate Quantitative Research Analyst

Susan Hu
Associate Quantitative Research Analyst
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Market Updates  

Global Private Market Fundraising Report

Are private funds primed for a post-election pop?

Now that the US presidential election is over, optimism is growing for a boom in dealmaking and exits.

The hope is that revitalized activity could reignite distributions—making future fundraising easier.
 
One of our 54 charts on private capital fundraising.

Our report illustrates a surge in infrastructure fundraising and how secondaries vehicles are benefiting from a cyclical bump:

Read the free report
 
 
Industry & Tech Research  

Foodtech Report

Foodtech VC funding remained stagnant in Q3, but new investment in the struggling ultrafast food delivery sector served up excitement.

Our new report also dives into food intelligence, where AI and data analytics are increasingly driving the development of food products, ingredients, and personalized nutrition:

Read a free preview
 

Insurtech Report

A decrease in interest rates has altered the atmosphere in the insurtech sector.

Our report explains why lower rates may help with capital costs and allow companies to invest in new tech, but they could also strain profitability, specifically in life insurance:

Read a free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  

Events before and after the holiday break:

Dec. 18: Our latest Tech Talk will focus on frameworks for investing in AI. Hear from professionals at Pioneer Fund and Translink on what is and isn't working. Register here.

Jan. 29: Join us for PitchBook's Private Equity Breakfast Briefing! Our US PE analysts will share their latest data and insights followed by a panel discussion with industry experts. We'll have networking time, too. Register here.
 
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • AI coding has become the most-funded use case in generative AI. [Forbes]

  • India is the only major market to show consistent growth in public listings over the past decade. [TechCrunch]

  • Investors have struggled this year to find an exit from their climate tech startups. [Axios Pro]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
ICYMI  

More of our recent research (* - report preview):

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • US PE Middle Market Report
  • US PE Lending League Tables
  • Real Assets Report
  • Mobility Tech Report*
  • Enterprise SaaS Report*
  • Information Security Report*
  • AI Healthcare & Life Sciences Market Snapshot
  • EMEA Snapshots: France, Germany, Italy
  • Thematic research on climate tech software, diagnostics, and GP-led secondaries
 

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