Happy Friday investors. Before we get to the key jobs report this morning, let’s talk bitcoin.

Today’s letter is brought to you by Public!

More Fed rate cuts are coming. You still have time to lock in a market-leading 7%* bond yield with Public.com.

Learn more.

A bullish setup for 2025

Elon Musk has quipped that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely. Bitcoin played its role well as it touched $100,000 for the first time ever late Wednesday, when traditional Wall Street markets were closed. 

The cryptocurrency’s price has exploded since Donald Trump — who campaigned as the pro-bitcoin candidate — won the election at the start of November.

In the weeks since, the president-elect has nominated multiple pro-crypto cabinet members and officials. 

As far as price movement, Trump’s choice of crypto advocate Paul Atkins to replace Gary Gensler in the top job at the SEC seemed to provide the final push. 

Of course it didn’t hurt that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell likened bitcoin to digital gold hours before the sharp rally. 

Since November 5, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has added more than $1.3 trillion in value. 

“Bitcoin’s fundamental backdrop has never been stronger,” Sam Callahan, a bitcoin analyst and the author of the newsletter, The News Block, told me.

He expects adoption to broaden in the new year on account of growing concerns around US debt, geopolitical tensions, and “an increasingly pro-liquidity environment.”

Indeed, 2024 has proven to be the most compelling stretch yet in the decade-plus bitcoin story. Wall Street joined the action in a big way in January, when giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity launched ETFs tied to the digital asset. 

All of them, notably, have crushed the S&P 500 since their debut.

Meanwhile, President-elect Trump has been vocal about the creation of a government-led strategic bitcoin stockpile.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, too, has proposed legislation of the same idea. 

Hopes for a formalized bitcoin reserve has helped fuel bitcoin’s roughly 50% appreciation since November 5. 

Jeff Park, CIO of alpha strategies at Bitwise, told me that while he remains optimistic, he harbors some concern about those specific expectations. 

“I sense a lot of excitement, almost impatience, for this to materialize with the Trump administration and I worry a little bit that investors are underestimating how long it will actually take to get in motion,” Park said.

“That being said, I would not be surprised if certain states moved ahead first, and are able to buoy the trend.” 

To his point, Google Search trends for the words “bitcoin” and “crypto” have picked up on the enthusiasm.

Whenever clarity does come regarding a government-buying spree — as well as a revamped regulatory framework — institutional demand could surge and the price of bitcoin could climb. 

While the bear case has become harder to articulate over recent months, Anthony Georgiades, general partner at Innovating Capital, told me the latest rally seems unsustainable.

Six-figure milestone aside, he pointed to tight credit spreads, company restructuring, and overexuberance as reasons for caution.

“Speculative activity, especially around meme coins, and institutional players chasing short-term profits could trigger a sharp pullback, potentially by early Q1,” Georgiades said. 

Bitcoin has gained roughly 130% year-to-date.

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

📊 What to expect from the November jobs report. Due at 8:30 a.m. ET today, consensus estimates see non-farm payrolls rising 215,000 in the month, while unemployment rate is forecasted to hold at 4.1%. That would be a sharp rebound from October, when the US added just 12,000 jobs amid storms and labor strikes. (Yahoo Finance)

🐱Roaring Kitty is back. A cryptic social media post from the famed meme-stock trader sent shares of GameStop soaring as high as 13% on Thursday. More than 300,000 shares of GME options contracts changed hands in the session, about 1.5 times the usual pace. The stock continued to climb in after-hours trading. (Reuters)

Rapid-fire:

Last thing:

Interested in advertising in Opening Bell Daily? Email phil@openingbellmedia.com