Good morning! Today we’re taking a rare pivot into private markets to unpack the Elon Musk-led initiative to take over the world’s most consequential AI startup. First time reading? Join 190,000 self-directed investors gaining an edge every morning. Sign up here. 

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Clashing ambitions

When two billionaires with unlimited resources battle over world-changing technology, sudden escalations shouldn’t be surprising.  

A group of investors led by Elon Musk made an unsolicited $97.4 billion bid for the non-profit that controls OpenAI, The Wall Street Journal reported, complicating Sam Altman’s efforts to turn the ChatGPT-creator into a for-profit company.

“It’s time for OpenAI to return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was,” Musk said in a statement through his lawyer. 

The Tesla chief argues that Altman will not only shortchange the non-profit parent, but consolidate unchecked AI dominance. 

Altman dismissed the news on X, the platform Musk owns: “No thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.” 

Internally, Altman told OpenAI staff that Musk’s offer wasn’t aligned with OpenAI’s mission, The Information reported late Monday. 

Early Tuesday in Paris he told Axios that “OpenAI is not for sale.”

What’s OpenAI really worth? 

Last month, Musk’s team requested OpenAI accept bidding for the non-profit, citing concerns that Altman & Co. would undervalue it.

OpenAI has pegged its non-profit controller’s value at roughly $40 billion. But rejecting Musk’s far higher offer — the only other one on the table — suggests the initial “fair value” was not so fair. 

The jargon and public barbs shroud a very strange situation indeed.

For Altman to turn OpenAI into a for-profit company, he has to buy it from the non-profit entity that currently owns it. But Altman sits on the board of said non-profit. 

Meaning he effectively wants to buy something from himself. 

…while naming his own price. 

The fact Altman shirked Musk’s jumbo offer — not to mention Musk’s claim to match any higher offer — suggests a few things: 

Power struggles

Musk and Altman co-founded OpenAI in 2015, structuring it under a non-profit to ensure it answered to humanity, rather than shareholders. 

Musk left in 2019, and Altman launched a for-profit subsidiary that has allowed OpenAI to raise billions. He’s now trying to spin that out as a stand-alone entity while giving the non-profit an ownership stake.

Musk says this move thwarts that original ambition and hands Altman commercial dominance and big money. 

The timeline leading up to this is worth revisiting:   

The intrigue will surely deepen.

Still, win or lose Musk’s offer is forcing a necessary debate on who should control the most consequential technology of our generation.

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

📊 Stocks are reacting to Trump’s steel tariffs. The president’s broad 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports, which he announced Sunday, sent steel stocks soaring to start the week. These tariffs are meant to make it harder for overseas companies to sell lower-priced steel on the US market. (Barron’s)

💵 Gold and greenbacks are rising simultaneously. The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, jumped after Trump’s latest tariff commentary. At the same time, gold surged to a record high above $2,900 — it’s eighth all-time high of the year. (CNBC)

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Rapid-fire:

Traders see 73% odds that OpenAI stops being a non-profit this year, down from 82% a week ago, according to Kalshi, the biggest US prediction market:

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