Tangle - The U.S.–Canada trade war.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today's read: 14 minutes.

Coming up.

This Friday, we’re going to open up the mailbag and answer a lot of reader questions that we have received over the past few months. We’ll cover questions about the Trump administration, as well as several about how Tangle works and a smattering of random queries. Then, we’re giving some readers the last word on a few issues. This will be our first mailbag since Executive Editor Isaac Saul returned from paternity leave, and we think you’ll find this edition to be a captivating read.

Quick hits.

1. The Trump administration announced it would lift its pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine following talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, in which Ukraine accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its war with Russia. (The latest) Separately, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff traveled to Qatar to meet with Israeli and Hamas officials to discuss extending the current ceasefire agreement between the sides. (The negotiations)
2. The Department of Education said it will eliminate roughly 50% of its workforce. Education Secretary Linda McMahon said the firings are the first step in a planned shutdown of the agency. (The cuts)
3. The House passed a funding bill that, if approved by the Senate, will avert a government shutdown on Friday and fund the government through September. The bill passed the House in a 217-213 vote mostly along party lines, with one Republican voting against it and one Democrat voting for it. (The bill)
4. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, lower than economists’ expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.1% annually. (The numbers)
5. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila and transported to the Netherlands to stand trial at the International Criminal Court. Duterte is charged with crimes against humanity for measures taken as part of his anti-drug campaign while in office. (The arrest)

Today's topic.

The U.S.–Canada trade war. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump threatened to double his planned tariffs on all Canadian steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. Trump’s announcement followed Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity the province supplies to 1.5 million American homes and businesses in response to Trump’s tariff threats. However, on Wednesday, Ford announced he would suspend the electricity surcharge after agreeing with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss a renewed United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade. The announcement prompted Trump to rescind his threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. 

Although the two sides backed off their respective threats, Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect on Wednesday, prompting immediate retaliation by Canada and the European Union (EU). Canada announced roughly $20 billion (USD) in levies on U.S. steel, aluminum and other goods, while the EU responded with around $28 billion in tariffs on American goods. 

Refresher: President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports (and a lower 10% levy on Canadian energy imports) in February but delayed them for one month after the countries recommitted to existing promises to enhance security at their respective borders with the U.S. The tariffs briefly went into effect on Thursday, but Trump partially paused them again (for all imports that fall under the USMCA) until April 2. In response, Canada has also levied 25% tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the United States, including orange juice, peanut butter, coffee, appliances, and more. 

You can read our past coverage of the tariffs here. 

Before Wednesday’s reversal, Premier Ford said the electricity surcharge would continue until Trump lifted the threat of tariffs — and could be increased. “I will not hesitate to increase this charge. If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” Ford said. Ontario provides electricity to neighboring U.S. states Minnesota, New York and Michigan, though each state purchases a relatively small amount from the province. President Trump criticized the decision, posting on social media that Canada would “pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!” 

Amid the intensifying threats, the U.S. stock market has seen sustained losses. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.14%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.18%, and the S&P 500 0.75%. Furthermore, on Monday, the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst day since December 18, while the Nasdaq had its worst day since September 13, 2022. European stocks have also dropped as concerns about the impacts of tariffs on global trade took hold. 

In response to the market volatility, President Trump told Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect. “What we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,” Trump said.

Today, we’ll survey arguments from the right, left, and Canadian commentators about the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada. Then, Managing Editor Ari Weitzman gives his take.

What the right is saying.

• The right is mixed on Trump’s latest tariffs moves, though many maintain that his strategy will benefit America in the long run.
• Some say his focus on tariffs is detracting from more important economic policies.

In Newsweek, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows argued “Trump's aluminum and steel tariffs will put American workers first.”

“Our adversaries have taken advantage of the weakness of Biden and Harris to not only dump aluminum and steel into our market but also by funneling supplies into border countries such as Canada and Mexico. Just as illegal migrants were flooding across our southern border bringing drugs and crime until President Trump took office, Canada and Mexico are allowing foreign aluminum producers to circumvent trade restrictions and flood the U.S. market,” Meadows wrote. “Ultimately American aluminum workers and their families feel the pain when Canada, Mexico, and other countries don't play by the rules. President Trump is done subsidizing Canada.”

“The beneficiaries of that America First trade policy are the hundreds of thousands of manufacturing workers whose jobs have been saved. As President Trump said in his address before the joint session of Congress ‘tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs, they're about protecting the soul of our country,’” Meadows said. “America is stronger when its aluminum industry is strong. America is stronger when its steel industry is strong. And thanks to President Trump, 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel imports with no exceptions will make America strong again.”

In The New York Post, Steve Forbes and Stephen Moore called for “tax cuts before tariffs.”

“President Trump has focused more of his attention of late on tariffs rather than tax cuts. That’s a mistake: He should shift now toward taxes, to head off any slowdown in this critical part of his economic agenda. Every time the president announces a new tariff, the stock market takes a hit,” Forbes and Moore wrote. “Manufacturers here at home have complained that the constantly changing tariff policies are causing supply-chain problems that could even lead to plant layoffs. 

“Trump is right that, as the world’s only economic superpower, we can use American leverage to pressure other nations to enact policies that are in the security and economic interests of the United States,” Forbes and Moore said. “But given the wobbly economy, now is not the time to risk even short-term pain. The longer Congress delays in getting the tax cut done, the longer it will take to feel the economic upside… The ‘tax cuts first’ strategy will help the president get better trade deals long-term.”

What the left is saying.

• The left criticizes Trump’s threats to Canada, but many say each side must work to salvage the relationship. 
• Others warn more economic turmoil is ahead. 

The Washington Post editorial board wrote “Canada and America must go back to getting along.”

“Tit-for-tat rhetoric out of Ottawa and Washington poses grave dangers to their economies. The two countries exchange nearly $1 trillion worth of goods a year; each is the other’s largest trading partner. After Trump declined to rule out a recession over the weekend, the Nasdaq dropped 4 percent on Monday, its largest one-day decline since 2022, and the Dow fell nearly 900 points,” the board said. “This dizzying roller-coaster ride, with across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico postponed for a month, is deepening uncertainty, undermining consumer confidence and chilling business investment in the United States.”

“All of this willful blindness is self-destructive. Trump seems convinced that decoupling from Canada would somehow lead to a renaissance of domestic manufacturing, but this reflects a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of supply chains and U.S. reliance on Canadian raw materials,” the board wrote. “It is clearly in the best interests of both countries to lower the temperature and figure out a way to stop tariffs from going into effect… The leaders should get on the phone and agree on rules of engagement to prevent permanent damage to their countries’ relationship.”

In CNN, Stephen Collinson said “the stock market plunge shows Trump’s disruption can’t be contained.”

“Trump’s voters love his instinct for disruption and volatility. But with consumer confidence softening, hiring slowing and fears of a recession growing, the last thing the economy needs is a president whipping up uncertainty,” Collinson wrote. “Trump’s apparent acknowledgement on Fox News that his policies, including tariffs, could cause a period of ‘transition’ for the economy was also disturbing – since it appeared to indicate that short-term pain is in the offing and that he is prepared for a country weary of high prices for groceries and housing to endure it.”

“The president has argued that his tariff policies will quickly bring in billions of dollars to the United States and rejected the economic logic that consumers will pay for them in higher prices. His aim is a laudable one – restoring the US industrial base that has ripped the heart of rust-belt manufacturing areas,” Collinson said. “But achieving this goal would mean reversing decades of globalization – a task that would take far longer than Trump’s remaining years in the White House. This puts Trump’s comments about a ‘transition’ period for the economy in a new light. Will Americans experience discomfort until the policy yields results?”

What Canadian writers are saying.

• Canadian writers disparage Trump’s actions, and most say their country must hold firm against U.S. pressure. 
• Some suggest Canada should recognize the reality of its position and seek a negotiated resolution with the Trump administration. 

The Globe and Mail editorial board wrote “Canada must hold its ground on tariff threats.”

“Canada and other countries in Mr. Trump’s crosshairs need to ignore what comes out of the President’s mouth and quietly yet firmly impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs and continue to broaden their trade partnerships and shore up their own economies, come what may,” the board said. “Everyone points out that Mr. Trump’s tariff games will dramatically slow the U.S. economy and are bad for U.S. manufacturers and consumers. But the President seems to think they are good for Donald Trump.”

“So, forget fentanyl. Forget immigration. Forget trade deficits. Forget everything and anything Mr. Trump suggests is his reason for imposing, removing and reimposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and, eventually, Europe and the rest of the world… Instead, assume that Mr. Trump’s strategic chaos is not a means to an end but the end itself. The more instability he causes, the more power he holds and the more his need to broadcast that power is fed,” the board wrote. “That in turn leaves dollar-for-dollar retaliation as the only sensible option. It is a fixed threat that doesn’t depend on Mr. Trump’s next announcement. It’s not about what is targeted or what is being demanded. It is only about how much is targeted, an amount set by Mr. Trump himself.”

In The Hub, Sean Speer argued Canada needs “stronger—not weaker—ties to the U.S. moving forward.”

“All of this turmoil will eventually culminate in the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) under the threat of imposing tariffs, withdrawal from the agreement, or some combination of the two,” Speer said. “Canadian policymakers need to be ready. They should be devising a renegotiation strategy over the next 30 days that accepts that any negotiation is going to be suboptimal. It will be conducted under a state of duress and the lesson of the past weeks is that there’s no guarantee that Trump will ultimately honour an agreement. Yet it’s still in the country’s interests to try to maintain a free trade agreement with the U.S.

“We must therefore have a clear understanding of our own priorities in advance of the USMCA’s renegotiations. The administration’s lack of clarity on what it precisely wants can actually be an advantage. We have a chance to shape the negotiations and fill-in-the-blanks of America’s policy goals by exercising first-mover advantage—by setting out a new vision for a North American economic and security partnership,” Speer wrote. “Such a proposal must be cognizant of the administration’s understanding of the end of unipolarity and the requisite adjustments to America’s economic and foreign policy… We’ll need to bring more to the relationship.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• Trump is a lot of things, but I don’t think he’s unpredictable: He wants to use tariffs to make the U.S. economically independent.
• I don’t think most Americans realize how ground-shifting this story is in Canada.
• Steel and aluminum tariffs may be a good thing in the long run, but Trump is putting us through a lot of pain to get there.

President Donald Trump doesn’t let off a lot of warning signals that he’s about to act, he just acts. He’s sudden, capricious, transactional, retributive, active, and often self-contradictory — but he isn’t unpredictable. 

When Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico last month, that was sudden but not unpredictable. When Trump reconciled with Canada and Mexico, then delayed the tariffs for a month, that was transactional but not unpredictable. When Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced his province would be putting a tariff on exported energy to neighboring U.S. states, Trump doubling down on his announced tariffs was capricious and retributive but not unpredictable. When Ford softened and then Trump softened — well, you get the idea.

A couple other things we know about Trump: He’s been consistently serious about using tariffs to increase domestic manufacturing and decrease trade deficits to make the U.S. totally economically independent. We don’t know how high they’ll be, how much they’ll apply to, how long they’ll last and if they’ll ever truly come or just remain a constant threat, but we know tariffs are going to be a heavily used tool in President Trump’s toolkit.

For Americans, the Trump theory of tariffs and economic independence sparks a serious debate. Personally, I’m a proponent of the game-theory argument that trying to “win” every interaction we have is less beneficial to us than cooperativism — but I understand how economic independence is a security benefit. What I don’t think most Americans realize, though, is how differently this story is playing out in Canada.

Canadians are incensed. The “Trump trade war” is the #1 story in the Great White North, and it could be seismic. I was brought up in a Pittsburgh sports household, so I’m a huge hockey fan. Over the past month, I’ve read story after story about Canadians booing the U.S. national anthem at hockey games, which is a big deal because for a long time Canadians would sing along to the Star-Spangled Banner. Consider how angered the famously even-tempered Canadians would have to be to boo Wayne Gretzky at a hockey game, all because he wore a MAGA hat during the presidential campaign and has been silent about Trump’s tough talk. 

Rather than pressure Canada into folding to the U.S. on trade or even something as extreme as annexation, it looks like Trump is having the opposite effect. At the beginning of the year, it was almost a foregone conclusion that Canada’s Liberal Party, formerly led by Justin Trudeau, would be passing the baton to the Conservatives when Canada holds its next elections. However, since Trump took office, Conservatives’ 25-point polling lead has evaporated. 

25-point lead. Evaporated. Can you imagine how significant an event would have to be to flip support like that in the U.S.? 

With so much news coming every day, it becomes really hard to see how talking tough to our neighbor and historic ally plays in public. We’re starting to get some glimpses, though: Polling from Canada’s Angus Reid International shows that only 22% of U.S. voters believe Trump is serious about annexing Canada, and 80% of voters want the U.S. to treat Canada as friendly or as a trusted ally. What’s more, over half of U.S. respondents weren’t even following this story. 

Here are some facts that may compel them to start paying attention, though: The U.S. imports more steel from Canada than any other country, and it gets the majority of its imported aluminum from Canada. Steel is an enormous part of the construction industry, and aluminum is used heavily in transportation and construction. CEOs of U.S. aluminum companies have lobbied against tariffs while CEOs of U.S. steel companies, which are sitting on warehouses of inventory, are asking Trump to hold the line. Housing construction is still rebounding from pandemic lows and home purchases are dipping. At the same time, lumber commodity prices are spiking, new car prices are expected to bump, and consumer confidence is cratering. 

I’m not an economist, but I don’t think you need a degree in economics to see that the standoff with Canada is going to hurt consumers, especially in the automobile and housing markets. I spent a lot of time above saying that Trump is predictable; the markets obviously disagree, or financial pros see where this is going and they don’t like it. Investors and consumers alike are factoring a lot of uncertainty into their decision making right now. The S&P 500, which was up 4% at this point in Trump’s first term, is now down over 6% since his inauguration. Consumer confidence is way down. Small business confidence is way down. Unemployment and jobs are flat. Meanwhile, the 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports went into effect today, prompting reciprocal tariffs out of the EU. 

Anecdotally, I can see this playing out right now. I live in Vermont, where tourism is a huge industry and the impact of Canadians canceling their U.S. trips is a major story. I have neighbors trying to build homes who are utterly demoralized by the commodity spikes. My wife and I are trying to install kitchen shelves right now, and we’re blown away by the increase in prices of simple wooden brackets.

What do you get when prices are up and demand is low? Market instability, or as Trump has put it, “a little disturbance.” I’m sure a portion of Trump’s base will feel energized by Trump “sticking up for U.S. interests,” but if prices go up and this story sticks, I don’t see how it does anything to help Republicans.

The whole bet from the Trump administration is that this economic pain in the near future will create the long-term conditions for domestic manufacturing to increase. That could actually happen; February’s inflation report just came out and, even with concerns about tariffs, it looks like inflation is cooling. The conditions could be just right for a drop in interest rates that spur new construction and an investment in U.S. manufacturing. We should all be rooting for that to happen — but it will take a while for us to get there. In the meantime, Trump is asking voters to withstand a lot of pain, and that could put the Republican Party on a rocky road over the next few years.

There’s an interesting historical parallel here. In 1890, Democrats — led by then-Rep. William McKinley, a person Trump has spoken glowingly about in public — implemented tariffs on the young nation of Canada in an attempt to pressure them to join the United States. It backfired, causing a stir of nationalism in Canada and rising prices in the United States. Then, a frustrated U.S. electorate made Republican candidate Grover Cleveland the first-ever president to serve non-consecutive terms. If you listen to it closely, it sounds like history is rhyming.

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Your questions, answered.

Q: Could we make Social Security solvent if we just raised the cap on maximum earnings? I saw that Bernie had proposed this at one point and it makes sense but of course it was shot down. I think if you're lucky enough to earn over $176,000 a year the rest of your earnings above that doesn't get social security tax. Seems crazy to be losing out on that income for something that supports so many elderly folks.

— Nick from Pittsburgh, PA

Tangle: Does it seem crazy to miss out on every dollar over that cap, which are dollars that the income earner needs the least? Yes, it does! 

This may be something of a rarity, but this question actually has a pretty direct answer: You can make Social Security solvent by slowing the benefit growth for the top half of all earners, and by taxing all wages above $400,000. You can use the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s interactive Social Security reforming tool to see it for yourself.

Of course, there are plenty of other ways to reform Social Security. You can raise the retirement age, limit cost of living adjustments, means-test payouts, increase requirements for receiving disability insurance, allow Social Security to be invested in the stock market, or just not pay it out to the top half of income earners at all. However, since you asked us, a combination of increasing (or eliminating) the earning cap and giving fewer benefits to the people who don’t need them seems like the best answer.

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

A recent report from a Swiss company found that only seven countries met the World Health Organization’s (WHO) air quality standards in 2024. The report measured the presence of particles called PM2.5, which the WHO says should be less than 5µg (micrograms) per cubic meter to maintain healthy air quality. Australia, New Zealand, Estonia, Iceland, and several small island states were among the countries to meet this standard. Conversely, the countries with the highest PM2.5 levels were Chad, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India. While the report highlighted the challenges of maintaining healthy air quality in most countries, the share of cities meeting PM2.5 standards rose from 9% in 2023 to 17% in 2024. The Guardian has the story.

Numbers.

• 7, 4, and 1. The number of transmission connections Ontario has with New York, Michigan and Minnesota, respectively, according to Bloomberg. 
• 4.4%. The percentage of New York’s total electricity purchased from Canada in 2023. 
• $310,000. The total cost of the electricity purchased by Minnesota Power from Ontario in 2024.
• 70 of 74. The number of economists polled across the United States, Canada, and Mexico who say the risk of a recession in their respective economies has increased, according to a March 2025 Reuters survey. 
• 35% and 46%. The percentage of U.S. adults who support and oppose, respectively, a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., according to a March 2025 Economist/YouGov poll.
• 11% and 64%. The percentage of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, who support a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S.

The extras.

• One year ago today we covered the potential TikTok ban.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the ad in the free version for The Daily Upside.
• Nothing to do with politics: A Cheeto shaped like the Pokémon Charizard sold for $87,840.
• Yesterday’s survey: 5,091 readers answered our survey on cutting federal funding to Columbia University and the arrest of Mahmoud Khalil with 74% opposing both the cut and the arrest. “I understand that some protestors made Jewish students uncomfortable, and that should be handled by the university. What Trump is doing, however, is intended to have a chilling effect on free speech. Universities should be bastions of our right to express ourselves. I am fearful that Trump's order will squelch meaningful public discourse,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

A halal Mediterranean grill in Ontario, Canada, was struggling to break even when TikToker Zachery Dereniowski placed an order for 1,000 shawarmas. Before learning Dereniowski’s plan, the restaurant’s owner, Hussein, offered to lower the menu price from $9.99 to $6 per shawarma. But when Hussein learned that Dereniowski planned to give the shwarmas to underprivileged families at sunset for Ramadan, Hussein decided to give the large order to Dereniowski for free. The next day, the TikToker returned to the restaurant and gave Hussein $50,000, a tip crowdfunded by his followers. Good Good Good has the story.

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