The ball is now in the Senate Democrats’ court.

On Tuesday afternoon, Speaker Michael Johnson (in response to threats of Trump endorsing and Musk financing primary challenges for dissenters) wrangled his party to vote for a continuing resolution to keep the government funded for a few months. This surprising success for the typically hapless Speaker has put Senate Democrats in a tough position. As Punchbowl News put it:

Senate Democrats don’t want to shut the government down but also don’t want to look like they’re helping President Donald Trump. And they are agonizing over how to handle what has become a truly unenviable situation.

At least eight Democratic senators will need to walk the plank and support a CR that nearly every member of their caucus has publicly condemned. And during a closed-door lunch meeting on Tuesday that lasted an hour longer than usual, Democratic senators shared several different views on how to handle the mess in front of them.

What Senate Democrats will do and what they should do are two separate questions, which often have two different answers.

1. A Tough Question

The sentiment within the activist base of the party is clear. The shutdown vote is a rare moment of leverage and Democrats should use it to push back on Trump and Musk. A vote for a Trump-endorsed bill to keep the government open would be yet another capitulation from a party that hasn’t done enough to stand up to an existential threat to the country.

People are angry and scared. They are looking for someone, anyone, to step up. This is why Senator Chris Murphy became a party hero, and thousands flocked to see Bernie Sanders in Iowa and Michigan.

If you are a regular listener of Pod Save America, you may have noticed my inconsistent thoughts on the question. A few weeks ago, I argued that Democrats could not — and should not — vote for anything that didn’t prohibit Musk from unilaterally shutting down government agencies. Last week, after interviewing several Senate Democrats on the night of Trump’s joint address, I softened my stance.

Some Senate Democrats are scared of the fight and would prefer to roll over and play dead. But many others want a strategy and are considering whether a shutdown would actually help Musk accomplish his goals of gutting the federal government. A shutdown only works as a point of leverage if Trump et al feel pressure to reopen the government. If they plan to destroy the government or are content to let the government stay closed for as long as possible, the plan is useless.

I worked in the White House during several near shutdowns and one actual shutdown. When the government is shut down, it’s tough for a President and his staff to do their jobs. Most of the White House is furloughed. Only a skeleton crew remains in the building to do the work. The ability to travel, plan events, or attend meetings is minimal. The limits stem from a fear of violating the anti-deficiency act, which dictates how the government spends money. It seems unlikely that Trump’s staff would have those same concerns.

This is not to say that Democrats could not win this fight or that they shouldn’t take it, but serious, substantive considerations shouldn’t be dismissed as cowardice. Having said all that, Democrats shouldn’t be so scared of the politics.

2. The Politics of a Shutdown Aren’t Necessarily Bad

In the 1990s, Newt Gingrich and the House Republicans shut down the government, demanding (among other things) cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. President Bill Clinton won those fights substantively and politically. The shutdown was seen as the moment Clinton revived his struggling presidency. He was on the path to an easy reelection a year later. When Ted Cruz and a group of House Republicans shut down the government during Obama’s presidency, the politics were similarly disastrous for Republicans. After the shutdown, the Republican Party’s favorability rating reached a historic low. In 2019, Trump became the first president to shut down the government over funding to build the wall. This was the longest government shutdown in history. Polling at the time showed that Trump took much of the blame and his approval rating went down three points.

All of the above led to the conventional wisdom undergirding the conversation about what Senate Democrats may do. The party that shuts down the government loses. But, for a few reasons, it’s a bit more complicated:

1. The Reason Matters: When Republicans shut down the government in the 1990s and the 2010s, they did it over incredibly unpopular issues. Newt Gingrich wanted Medicare cuts and Cruz et al wanted to defund Obamacare, therefore kicking people with pre-existing conditions off their health care coverage. When Trump shut down the government, it was over funding for the wall, which his base loves but was never a priority for anyone else. Now this is an imperfect example, but during the brief shutdown over immigration in 2018, Democrats actually came out ahead. According to FiveThirtyEight:
   In an average of four polls conducted during the shutdown, 36 percent of Americans felt that Democrats in Congress were responsible for it, 34 percent felt that Trump was responsible and 16 percent felt that Republicans in Congress were responsible.
   It is fair to surmise that Democrats would have a much better chance of succeeding politically if they chose to fight over a popular issue.

2. The Political Impact May Be Shortlived: Republicans took a massive hit from the 2013 shutdown. However, the damage was temporary. They gained seats in the House and took the Senate majority. Trump’s approval rating took a hit from his shutdown. Still, his numbers quickly reverted to the mean and he remained a strong favorite against any Democratic nominee other than Joe Biden heading into the 2020 election. Therefore, I am very skeptical that a shutdown will impact the 2026 midterms. Our collective national memory span is shortening by the day, and there is no doubt that 1000 Trump-inspired controversies will supersede a shutdown before people start voting next year. It may affect the governor’s race this fall in Virginia, a state with many federal workers, but even that race feels far off.

3. If Democrats Do This, They Mean Business

Senate Democrats were in a similar position in January 2018. Republicans needed Democratic votes to avoid a filibuster on a bill to keep the government open. Senate Democrats were under tremendous pressure to use a potential shutdown as a bargaining chip to force Trump to protect undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children.

On January 20th, the government shut down. Over the weekend, some Democrats got cold feet, and the government was reopened on Monday. Democrats won nothing in the fight and simply earned the enmity of the base.

It was a giant and avoidable mess. The Senate Democrats were unwilling to suffer the short-term pain of angering their base by voting to keep the government open, so they ended up with the worst of all worlds.

To take on this fight, they must commit to seeing it through. They must be willing to take the heat from the pundits, the editorial boards, and even their own constituents in the service of a greater good.

It will undoubtedly be painful in the short-term.

However, Democrats could win if they pick a specific and popular issue to fight over — protecting the Department of Education, stopping the tariffs, restoring food safety funding, reversing the cuts to cancer research, or funding veterans’ health organizations. They cannot make the fight about Congressional prerogatives, the power of the purse, or oppose all of the cuts. We can’t once again find ourselves the defenders of a broken status quo. We have to be smart, specific, courageous and relentlessly communicate our message on every forum and platform. It won’t be easy, but it can be done.

Some fights are worth having. If Trump and Musk are as dangerous as we say, then it’s hard to justify taking a pass on the one moment of true leverage.