The analysts have data, but the people of the internet have vibe sensors and whimsy: Americans are jokingly pointing to pop culture moments like Lady Gaga’s new album as evidence of impending financial collapse—but the anxiety behind the memes is beginning to worry economists.

ICYMI: The terminally online are finding evidence of impending financial disaster in anything that feels like a callback to 2008—like Will Smith returning to music and Lady Gaga returning to dance-pop—or anything that seems to be a new form of dystopia—like Southwest ending free checked bags and DoorDash and Klarna launching an eat-now-pay-later plan.

Cue the nervous laughter: Consumer sentiment dropped 11% this month to notch its lowest three-month slide since 2020, according to Business Insider. Google searches for “recession” hit their peak popularity over the past 12 months on March 11.

President Trump said on March 9 that he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a recession happening this year, and whiplashing tariff updates and policy changes from his administration, plus resulting slumps in the stock market, have made it difficult for industries and everyday people to plan for the future.

• Around 70% of companies that have reported earnings recently have mentioned tariff/policy uncertainty as one possible reason for their not-so-hopeful outlooks this year.
• More than half of fund managers consider a trade war-triggered global recession to be a top market risk, according to a survey by Bank of America this month.

But…hard economic data—like employment numbers, manufacturing output, and inflation—suggests that the economy is relatively healthy with a solid job market, contradicting consumer surveys. Citigroup’s Chief US Economist Andrew Hollenhorst told Bloomberg. “If you just look at the hard data, you’re looking at what happened a month ago, sometimes even two months. Surveys are telling you what people are thinking about the future,” he said.

Zoom out: Consumer spending accounts for ~two-thirds of GDP, so a vibecession could up the odds of an actual recession if everybody gets too money-cautious. A slew of retailers issued warnings earlier this month that a slowdown is well underway.—ML

Social Security won’t shut down, but it’s not out of the spotlight yet. On Saturday, Leland Dudek, the acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration, said that he was “not shutting down the agency” after a fracas with a US district judge. Two days before, Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander ruled that the SSA had probably violated laws by giving Elon Musk’s DOGE team access to the records of millions of Americans and that it had to stop sharing information. Dudek responded that the order would mean he not only had to cut access to the DOGE team, but also to SSA employees, which would force the agency to shut down. Hollander rebuked him, saying that was “incorrect,” which led to Dudek walking back the closure threat. On Friday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on a podcast that if the agency decided not to send out checks for a month, seniors would not complain, but fraudsters would. More than 70 million Americans get Social Security benefits every month, which are often their only source of income.

New Canadian PM calls for economically motivated snap elections. Prime Minister Mark Carney called for new parliamentary elections to take place on April 28. The vote was originally scheduled for October 20 but Carney, a former central banker for Canada, wants a mandate from the people as he prepares to fight a trade war with the US. Following his request for an election getting approved, Carney told reporters: “We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty. Our response must be to build a strong economy and a more secure Canada.” Prior to President Trump taking office, Canada seemed tired of its Liberal leadership, which led Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign. But following Trump’s tariff threats and his comments on making Canda the 51st US state, the race became much closer. An Angus Reid poll last week found that Liberals had 42% of public support compared to the Conservatives, who had 37%.

Uncontained wildfires spread across the Carolinas. As of last night, four wildfires raged across Polk County in North Carolina, with the largest two each spanning more than 2,000 acres. The NC Department of Public Safety issued mandatory evacuations for parts of the county, where containment and rescue efforts are being made more difficult by detritus left from Hurricane Helene, which severely damaged the area last October. A fire in the Blue Ridge Mountains of South Carolina was also 0% contained as of last night, and SC Governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency. Drought conditions are thought to be a major factor in both states’ wildfires, although a sheriff in South Carolina said a “negligent act” committed by a group of teens led to the Table Rock Fire in that state.—HVL

This weekend, Disney took a bite of a poisoned apple and fell into a deathlike sleep first place at the domestic box office. The new live-action Snow White brought in $43 million in its opening weekend—low by Disney’s standards, but a lot better than any other movie that debuted alongside it, despite the extensive controversy surrounding its adaptation and casting.

What controversies? There have been many, but the big ones involved Rachel Zegler, who has Colombian ancestry, being cast as Snow White; Zegler and costar Gal Gadot, who played the Evil Queen, publicly being on opposite sides of the war in Gaza; and the Seven Dwarves getting weird CGI treatment. This led the studio to dial back the marketing campaign once the movie had an opening date, and to bar journalists from the premiere’s red carpet.

The cash envelope, please: Analysts think the bad publicity didn’t hurt the film’s opening performance because the people most committed to Online Discourse are not the same ones who take seven-year-olds to the movies and have to pick between this and the weeks-old Paddington in Peru.

However, industry watchers believe adults and kids alike may be tired of Disney’s animation-to-live action inventory:

• Snow White’s domestic debut haul is the smallest of Disney’s cartoon glowups. The next worst opening in that category was Dumbo, which brought in $45 million in 2019 (unadjusted for inflation) in its opening weekend.

The fairest of them all is not yet lost. Snow White will ultimately be judged on how it performs globally after a couple of months in theaters, plus the “merchandising gold mine” it offers Disney, as one movie franchising consultant told Variety.—HVL

It’s Opening Day (again, sort of): While last week’s two-game series in Tokyo between the Dodgers and Cubs officially kicked off baseball’s regular season in front of a massive audience, MLB will host a more traditional Opening Day on Thursday, when 28 teams will play in 14 games scheduled throughout the afternoon and evening. They start at 3pm ET, for anyone who wants to plan an early exit from their office.

Big week for culture: And nothing says “culture” like Paul American, the new Max reality series dropping on Thursday that will follow the lives of brothers Jake Paul and Logan Paul. Seth Rogen’s new Apple TV+ show, The Studio, premieres on Wednesday and has a nearly perfect Rotten Tomatoes score. In music, Lucy Dacus’s new album, Forever Is A Feeling, and the new Mumford & Sons album, Rushmere, will be released on Friday, the latter being a national holiday for the guy in your office who wears tweed caps.

Ukraine–Russia peace talks continue: The US is targeting a truce agreement between the two countries by April 20—Easter in Western and Orthodox churches this year—according to Bloomberg, and the work toward that deadline continues with discussions taking place in Saudi Arabia this week. US and Ukrainian delegations met yesterday, while US and Russian officials will meet in Riyadh today.

Everything else…

• GameStop, Dollar Tree, and Lululemon will report earnings.
• The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is out on Friday.
• The men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments resume. The men play their Sweet 16 games starting on Thursday, and the Final Four will be set on Sunday. The women’s tournament will play Sweet 16 contests beginning on Friday.

George Foreman died on Friday at the age of 76 and left behind a lasting boxing legacy that included two stints as world heavyweight champion, the last one secured at the age of 45. But for a generation of health-conscious chefs and resourceful college students, he will be known primarily for his popular namesake grills.

Foreman lent his name and charisma to the product and became its spokesperson in 1994. Three decades later, more than 100 million George Foreman Grills have been sold. Foreman signed over his naming rights in perpetuity in 1999 for $137 million and told the AARP in a 2014 interview that he earned “much more” than $200 million from the grills, all without having to take a punch.—DL