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Flubbergasting stuff | Nikola's plan backfires |

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Today's big stories

  1. Key data showed China’s economy joining a global rebound from the COVID recession
  2. You could learn a lot from superstar investor Ray Dalio's successes and failures this year – Read Now
  3. Electric truck company Nikola faces a probe into its business practices
1/3

Economic Xi-bound

Economic Xi-bound

What’s Going On Here?

Key data released on Tuesday showed that – for all the COVID-related challenges so far – China’s economy just keeps bouncing back.

What Does This Mean?

The data was a double whammy of good news. For one thing, industrial production – the heart of the Chinese economy – climbed 5.6% and beat economists’ expectations. For another, the country’s retail sales rose 0.5% in August, recording their first gain of the year. Put the two together and you’ve got some very happy investors – so happy, in fact, they sent China’s currency to a 16-month high.

It looks like nervous Chinese consumers have finally joined Americans and Europeans in flashing the cash – even if, like their neighbors in the West, their spending is skewed more toward physical goods than to services. They’re less likely to catch COVID from a new hairdryer than from a trip to the hairdressers, after all...

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: End already, 2020.
More consumer spending is exactly what the Chinese government needs: it’s been trying to steer the economy away from a reliance on exports and toward a healthier domestic market. In fact, China’s hoping to have at least 560 million “middle income” consumers by 2025, creating a market that’d be even bigger than America’s. 2025 feels like an awfully long way away, mind you – especially considering economists reckon China’s economic growth will be as little as 2% this year. That’d be its weakest since 1976… (Tweet this)

For markets: Swede funding.
It isn’t just China reporting a rebound from the depths of the corona-crisis: H&M – the world's second-biggest fashion retailer – reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue on Tuesday, as well as a profit of $229 million. That pushed shares of the Swedish retail giant 11% higher, which bodes well for rival Inditex’s results on Wednesday. Then again, as some European countries think about ending employee support programs and the US struggles to agree on next steps, the days of confident consumers may be numbered.

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Ray Dalio Is Sad

What’s Going On Here?

The world’s largest hedge fund is facing its biggest losses in a decade, but at least its founder’s easily replicable portfolio has pulled through the pandemic much more profitably.

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3/3

What’s The Scam?

What’s The Scam?

What’s Going On Here?

Nikola reportedly faces an investigation after a major activist investor accused the electric truckmaker of being too good to be true.

What Does This Mean?

Nikola hit most people’s radars for the first time in June, when its surging stock pushed its valuation above carmaking veteran Ford – even though it, uh, hadn’t actually produced a single vehicle commercially. It gained another burst of publicity just last week after announcing a $2 billion deal with General Motors.

But now – in a story that’s been building for a few days – the activist investor Hindenburg Research has accused Nikola of dozens of transgressions, like overstating the abilities of its early prototype trucks. That didn’t go down well with the truckmaker, which asked a major US regulator to investigate Hindenburg. And that didn’t go down well with the regulator, which reportedly turned its attention to Nikola’s operations instead…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Angels or devils? 
Activist “short-sellers” like Hindenburg openly aim to profit by placing bets that a company’s stock will fall, and then publishing details of its supposedly shifty dealings. This high-risk strategy pays off if the world takes their side, but it can also backfire if the company proves them wrong. Little surprise, then, that opinion is split on them: some see them as parasites driving healthy companies into the ground, while others see their work as an essential function of capitalism.

The bigger picture: Whoopsy daisy. 
The hype-filled world of electric vehicles – where often-unproven tech vies to grab a slice of a lucrative market – draws short-sellers like moths to a flame. Around 7% of Tesla's stock is on loan to short-sellers, who sell the borrowed stock and hope to buy it back cheaper in future. If they’re wrong, of course, they might suddenly be forced to cut their losses and buy the stock prematurely – in turn causing the price they hoped would fall to rise.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Mankind is resilient: the atrocities that horrified us a week ago become acceptable tomorrow.”

– Joseph Heller (an American author)
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