On the Pelicans' quest for knowledge and also a play-in spot

The Pelicans have some stuff to figure out, and a chase for No. 10 could help New Orleans sort it all.

Mar 11

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Wanderer above the Sea of Fog, Caspar David Friedrich

As we move into the second half of the season — not the stretch as after typically All-Star breaks, but legitimately into the second half of the season — the Western Conference playoff situation looks relatively straightforward: 10 teams are above .500, and five teams are at least several games below .500. With the new play-in structure meaning the top 10 teams have a shot at making the postseason once the regular season ends, it would appear that most of the field is set.

To put a finer point on it, the Warriors are No. 10 in the West at 19-18. The Pelicans and Thunder are tied for No. 11 at 15-21, 3.5 games behind Golden State. The Kings are another game back at 14-22. Three and a half games over 36 games remaining is obviously not insurmountable, but it’s a gap.

Without the play-in in place, there’d be no question that the Thunder and Kings should be uninterested in making a run toward the playoffs at this point — too big a gap to No. 8 (4.5 games for OKC, 5.5 for Sacramento), too many good teams in the way. I would argue that OKC and Sacramento still have no business chasing the No. 10 spot this season, given the ages of their cores and the opportunity, at least for Sacramento, to trade some veterans for assets that can help power up the rebuild. (I’d be working to trade Buddy Hield over Harrison Barnes, but that’s just me.)

OKC is in pure developmental mode, even if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star and the Thunder have a certain late-game pluckiness. The Thunder should essentially keep doing exactly what they have been doing this season, which will almost assuredly not result in the No. 10 (but could result in the inaugural League Pass Cup title!). Sacramento is still stuck between tearing it down and building it back up. A near-hopeless chase with the dream prize of getting your heart broken one step before the actual playoffs — it seems awful.

The Pelicans are a different story. They are in developmental mode like OKC to an extent. They are stuck between tearing down the old team and building a new one like Sacramento to an extent. But with two young All-Star caliber players already, one of whom might be a top-10 weapon right now, and given the vagaries of the market, the coach and the franchise’s history, the situation is just different.

The Pelicans had a wildly uneven season as Stan Van Gundy figures out what to do with his roster, particularly the backcourt and Steven Adams. Continuing to figure it out for the rest of the season — trying things, continuing to shape the offense around Zion Williamson’s unique excellence primarily instead of around Brandon Ingram’s attack, determining the optimal frontcourt partner style for Zion — is a worthy objective. New Orleans will have lots of decisions to make at both the trade deadline and in the offseason, and getting as many answers to unresolved questions in the lead-up is smart. That sure rules out tanking: you want to test successes and lean into them to rule out flukes. You want to try to win every night to build upon the foundation of Zion and Ingram but mainly Zion. You want to start erecting a temple to his greatness that can stand for a decade or more.

That doesn’t necessarily mean chasing No. 10, though. If the trade deadline offers an opportunity to flip, say, Eric Bledsoe or J.J. Redick for a piece that will be less helpful to this year’s Pelicans team but boost future odds of success, I think you do it. (Especially if it frees space for Josh Hart to become a starter or Nickeil Alexander-Walker to have a steadier central role or Kira Lewis to get some run.)

Lonzo Ball has been the name on the rumor mill — he’s due a contract this offseason, and he’s good enough for other teams to want him. But Ball appears to be a great fit with Zion, and that should be the team’s top priority in decision-making. The gameplan going into the trade deadline should be: Zion and Ingram are untouchable, Ball is off the table without a near All-Star or high-value blue chip player coming back (not going to happen), we aren’t trading young players for veterans. In the offseason, you’ll need to make a decision on the price you’re willing to pay to keep Ball, complicated by the big contract they gave Steven Adams (a stalking horse in this whole discussion that is actually irrelevant because he’s not really moveable at this juncture) and Bledsoe’s deal.

To me, Bledsoe is the move that could relieve some issues. Boston is unlikely to take another big guard contract with their massive traded player exception, and there aren’t many obvious landing spots for the guard, especially given that he hasn’t had a great season removed from the overwhelming competence of the Bucks. Other than the Celtics — and Marcus Smart is reportedly coming back on Thursday, so that becomes an even more tenuous fit — the Magic are the team that could most use a player of Bledsoe’s style and skills. But Orlando is in the No. 14 in the East and has little business shifting to a “win now” mindset. The Pacers could use one more guard, but likely not at this price tag (contract, not trade value). The Knicks would normally be game for this type of acquisition, but something has changed there (and they spent a chit on Derrick Rose already).

So odds are New Orleans is stuck with Bledsoe, which makes justifying Ball’s future contract harder. So long as the Pelicans don’t decide now that they can’t pay Lonzo later, that’s a problem for another day. In the interim, it’s worth continuing to try stuff and win some games and get Zion and Ingram more and more reps together and see if that No. 10 seed can’t be had in the end.

If there’s a race for a spot in the West this year, this is it: the Pelicans trying to catch the Warriors, the Grizzlies, the Spurs and whoever else slips among the top 10. Most of the action will instead be focused on the fight over the No. 6 spot, No. 8 spot and seeds at the top of the table.

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Scores

Wizards 112, Grizzlies 127 — Memphis shot well and owned the offensive glass, with Jonas Valanciunas picking up nine o-boards. The Grizz have to win these games to end up in preferable position in the play-in/playoff mix in the West.

Spurs 104, Mavericks 115 — Exceptional game from the Mavericks’ two-headed monster. Luka Doncic getting this much space on Dejounte Murray is scary.

Steve Jones Jr. @stevejones20

Look at Luka Doncic. Sheesh.

Schedule

A robust schedule befitting a fandom hungry for basketball. All times Eastern. League Pass Cup game denoted with a 🏆.

Pistons at Hornets, 7 🏆
Celtics at Nets, 7:30, TNT
Hawks at Raptors, 7:30
Magic at Heat, 8
Sixers at Bulls, 8 — Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are out, yikes!
Knicks at Bucks, 8
Timberwolves at Pelicans, 8
Mavericks at Thunder, 9
Warriors at Clippers, 10, TNT
Suns at Blazers, 10
Rockets at Kings, 10

Links

This BuzzFeed News piece recreating the events of March 11, 2020 — including interviews with various NBA personnel about Rudy Gobert’s positive test and the shutdown of the league — is absolutely wild to read a year out.

Another March 11 anniversary story, this one focused on the NBA from Ramona Shelburne at ESPN Insider. ($)

By Sam Amick’s telling in The Athletic a Celtics trade for Harrison Barnes really does seem like the most logical and likely use of Boston’s big trade exception. ($)

The Spurs and LaMarcus Aldridge have mutually agreed to part ways. San Antonio will try to trade LMA before the March 25 deadline; if it doesn’t work, the team plans to buy him out. LMA is not a particularly attractive target for contenders, in my opinion — the guy has been really good for a really, really long time, but he’s not the same player. What a coup it was for the Spurs to land him six years ago, though!

Katie Heindl on the NBA’s fast return to action and soft-tissue injuries. Yikes!

Marcus Thompson III with a great piece for The Athletic on Kelly Oubre’s search for a home. ($)

Cool story from Sabreena Merchant on Amir and Nia Coffey, trying to become the first NBA-WNBA siblings to play in the same market.

Update on the Meyers Leonard situation: