The Bucks' moments of truth are here

Extending Jrue Holiday essentially locks in what Milwaukee will look like over the course of Giannis Antetokounmpo's next contract, or at least the first part of it. Is the core good enough?

Apr 5

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Old Hunting Grounds, Worthington Whittredge

When the Milwaukee Bucks traded a mammoth stash of draft assets to the New Orleans Pelicans for Jrue Holiday just one year before he could become an unrestricted free agent, everyone knew the team would need to pay him a whole lot of money. And so, the Bucks have agreed to pay Holiday a whole lot of money: at least $135 million over the next four seasons, with bonuses that could take the total to $160 million. The deal kicks in next season as it includes Holiday declining his 2021-22 option. There’s a new $37 million player option on 2024-25.

Holiday is really good, widely acknowledged as one of the best two-way players who isn’t a perennial All-Star. He’ll turn 31 during the playoffs, but doesn’t have an overwhelming amount of NBA mileage: he’s around 25,000 regular season minutes in 11 seasons, substantially less than draftmates James Harden and DeMar DeRozan and on par with Stephen Curry and Blake Griffin.

The Bucks have been quite good with Holiday. Milwaukee is 27-11 when he plays this season and 5-6 when he doesn’t. Lineups that include Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have a net rating of +11.6 points per 100 possessions. The lineups that have been used at least 50 minutes this season have success regardless of who the other players are. That’s affirming, because this is going to be the Bucks’ core for the next three seasons. Jrue, Giannis and Khris will have to be the drivers of the team’s success with whoever the front office can wedge into the remaining salary slots.

Brook Lopez is taking up a good bit of that space, and there’s a realm of possibility in which the Bucks move him in the summer for a better shooter who maybe isn’t quite as a good a defender. I don’t know that Pat Connaughton has much value out there, or that Donte DiVincenzo can fetch a No. 4 option. The Bucks could always bring in a ring-chaser or two in the offseason. (DeRozan is not a ring-chaser and you probably want a shooter in that No. 4 option slot, but he’d be a fascinating augment to this team from a creation standpoint.)

The other real play here is making a swap on the bench and replacing Mike Budenholzer, which is sure to be a very hot topic unless the Bucks at minimum push the Nets to a very tough series or go further. (Given what we know about how NBA coaches fare in these situations, I think losing to any East team but Brooklyn costs Bud his job. I’m frankly not sure losing to Brooklyn in six or seven saves him, either.)

Speaking of which, the Nets are the stalking horse here. Milwaukee is all-in to win a championship in the next three years, and rightfully so: you don’t waste time when you have a talent like Giannis locked up. We don’t know how long the Nets will be competing at this level — that’s up to the bodies and whims of Kevin Durant and James Harden. Milwaukee is betting that it can outlast or overcome the Nets, to say nothing of the Sixers (who have another play if they fall short: trading Ben Simmons) or the Heat (who just lost another free agent target with Holiday’s extension). No one else in the East looks scary. The Lakers and Clippers, the titans of the West (who could absolutely lose to the Jazz, Suns or Nuggets in the playoffs), have their own problems.

Paying Holiday huge money was the obvious next step after trading for him and getting Giannis to sign his extension. It may also be the pragmatic step. Whether it works to get the Bucks to their solitary goal — winning a championship — remains to be seen. Kudos to Milwaukee for trying.

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Scores

Thursday

Wizards 91, Pistons 120 — Detroit’s *second* League Pass Cup victory of the season!

Sixers 114, Cavaliers 94

Hornets 89, Nets 111

Warriors 109, Heat 116

Magic 115, Pelicans 110 — Wendell Carter Jr. was the second center off the bench for Orlando, and didn’t even come in until Mo Bamba (the first center off the bench behind Khem Birch) had picked up three fouls early in the second quarter. WCJ finished with 22 and 12 in the win. He played most of the fourth quarter.

Hawks 134, Spurs 129 — Atlanta’s offense fell apart at the end of regulation and Trae Young missed a floater to clinch a win. His punishment was two overtimes, where he scored 15 to lead the Hawks to sweet victory.

Nuggets 101, Clippers 94 — Great game from Denver, establishing control with purposeful defense and holding off L.A. rallies. Who wants another playoff series between these teams?

Friday

Warriors 77, Raptors 130 — Hey, a Warriors game had everyone on Twitter buzzing again! A 53-point loss to a sub-.500 team will do that, I suppose. A brutal drubbing and a pretty good evidence bag in the Stephen Curry MVP case.

Rockets 102, Celtics 118

Mavericks 99, Knicks 86

Hornets 114, Pacers 97

Timberwolves 108, Grizzlies 120

Hawks 126, Pelicans 103 — New Orleans played these games without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. In case you were wondering what the Pels looked like without their three best players, here you go.

Bulls 106, Jazz 113

Thunder 103, Suns 140 — Phoenix scoring a buck forty catches your eye because they play really slowly. Must have been efficient, right? The Suns shot 68% on twos, 45% on threes and had all of 10 turnovers in 103 possessions. Their offensive rating was 137 with a True Shooting over 70%. Incredible.

Bucks 127, Blazers 109 — Monster game from Giannis.

Lakers 115, Kings 94 — A crucial win for Kyle Kuzma and the Lake Show. A totally maddening, inexcusable no-show for the Kings. So it goes …

Saturday

Mavericks 109, Wizards 87

Knicks 125, Pistons 81 — A 44-point margin? Just wait for the later Saturday games.

Cavaliers 101, Heat 115 — Miami is cooking again. Bam Adebayo is controlling games, Duncan Robinson is hitting shots, Jimmy Butler is still Jimmy Butler. It’s cliché to say no one wants to face Miami in the playoffs, but … yeah. It’s true.

Timberwolves 113, Sixers 122 — Joel Embiid is back and all is right in the world. Karl-Anthony Towns has been putting up gaudy numbers for a few weeks now and he did it again in this one (39-14-5). I hope Minnesota can be competitive next season.

Pacers 139, Spurs 133 — Impressive OT win for Indiana without Domantas Sabonis or Malcolm Brogdon. Caris LeVert had a strong effort (26-4-9 with three steals) and the bench (T.J. McConnell and Aaron Holiday) kept Indy in it.

Magic 91, Jazz 137 — A 46-point win over a tanking, err rebuilding team? Impressive.

Thunder 85, Blazers 133 — Ooh, a 48-point win! Blowouts are such fun, aren’t they? Three 40+ point margins in one day.

Bucks 129, Kings 128 — Giannis sat but Jrue Holiday got Milwaukee over the top with one of his best offensive games of the season (33-7-11).

Sunday

Nets 107, Bulls 115 — Kyrie Irving was the only one of the Big Three available, but this is still a heartening win for Chicago nonetheless.

Lakers 86, Clippers 104 — The Lakers (finally) fall to fifth place, a half-game out of sixth.

Hornets 86, Celtics 116 — Gordon Hayward is out four weeks with a sprained foot, a brutal blow for Charlotte after losing LaMelo Ball. Meanwhile, Boston is now within a game of the No. 4 seed. After all that drama, the mediocrity of the East makes it possible the C’s will have a round with home court.

Grizzlies 116, Sixers 100 — Brutal game for Philly as Joel Embiid rested and Ben Simmons had a rather invisible performance. Still tied for first in the East thanks to Brooklyn’s loss.

Warriors 111, Hawks 117 — Stephen Curry played and dropped 37. But he also had eight turnovers, both Curry and the team shot 25% from deep and Clint Capela dominated young James Wiseman and Kevon Looney.

Pelicans 122, Rockets 115 — We’re at the “Kelly Olynyk led the Rockets in scoring” portion of the season for Houston.

Magic 109, Nuggets 119

League Pass Cupdate

Ladies and gentlepeople, the Charlotte Hornets now sit atop the League Pass Cup.

The Hawks helped out their Southeast Division brethren by knocking off the Spurs on Thursday. It was otherwise a light weekend for the Cup, with Detroit getting Win No. 2 and the Knicks getting closer to the end of their Cup run. (Four games left for New York over the next six weeks. None until April 20.)

We have three LP Cup games on Monday and seven this week through Friday. Can the Hornets hang on?

Schedule

Seven games with one on NBA TV as the league defers to the NCAA men’s championship game. League Pass Cup games denoted with a 🏆. All times Eastern.

Knicks at Nets, 7, NBA TV
Wizards at Raptors, 7
Jazz at Mavericks, 7
Kings at Timberwolves, 7 🏆
Pistons at Thunder, 7 🏆
Cavaliers at Spurs, 7 🏆
Suns at Rockets, 8

Links

Space Jam: A New Legacy trailer is out. I’m all the way in.

Tom Haberstroh in TrueHoop on the Jazz’s terrifying flight. ($)

Speaking of which, Donovan Mitchell (the only Jazz player who didn’t take the replacement flight to Memphis after the bird strike) says he will travel with the team going forward despite his (well-earned) fear.

At least 52 women’s basketball players have opted into the WNBA Draft. There are 36 draft slots and maybe a dozen and half or two dozen roster spots available. Bring back the Comets. Bring back the Monarchs.

Jalen Suggs is going to be really fun in the NBA.