A wrinkle in tankdom

Lottery reform has de-emphasized pure tanking in the NBA. Draft protections have kept it alive for two bad teams.

Mar 15

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Young Man With a Skull, Frans Hals

By my count, there are currently three NBA teams with no interest in winning games this season: the Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are the only team among these three who have taken action to make their team worse, having traded Derrick Rose for a pick last month. The Rockets obviously had a make a trade that made them markedly worse, but that wasn’t really their choice. The Wolves have been inactive, save for a weird coaching change.

These three teams are not tanking on a game-to-game basis, they are just not entirely concerned with winning. I would suspect that Detroit and Houston will make any moves necessary to keep them bad: the Rockets are going to give away P.J. Tucker for either a future asset or nothing, and the same is likely to happen with Victor Oladipo. (What a mistake to take on Oladipo in hopes of competing this season in that trade!) The Pistons don’t really have many veterans left to trade another that their offseason acquisitions Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee. They did flip Svi Mykhailiuk and a 2027 second-round pick for Hamadou Diallo last week, which is likely more about what Detroit GM Troy Weaver likes from Diallo having been involved in bringing him to OKC as Sam Presti’s deputy there than anything else. (I like to imagine Weaver and Presti, who worked together more than a decade, trying to come up with a mutually beneficial trade over the course of a six-hour phone call, and landing on Mykhailiuk and a 2027 second for Diallo. A 2027 second!)

Speaking of the Thunder, OKC is also not particularly committed to win games on an institutional level right now. Are they tanking? No, not really. While they did trade Steven Adams in the summer and are very youth-focused, there’s a sense that they’d be just as happy to sneak into the No. 10 spot as they would be to get some extra ping pong balls. They don’t really have any “tank” moves to play short of benching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which they seem exceedingly unlikely to do. That said, OKC started Moses Brown, Ty Jerome, Aleksej Pokusevski and Justin Jackson on Sunday. (And won.)

The Kings might get there by the time the trade deadline passes — you’ll know if they trade Harrison Barnes and/or Buddy Hield for draft considerations. The Magic should probably be thinking hard about a reset, but it would take trading Nikola Vucevic to lean into a tank. The Cavaliers and Wizards would be candidates except Washington isn’t going to tank with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook on the roster and Cleveland is in a multi-year rebuild already. The Cavs wouldn’t exactly be “tanking” to trade or release Andre Drummond and/or Kevin Love: that’d just represent following the already established plan of attack.

All in all, there’s just not a lot of there there. The NBA has some bad teams, as it always does. But there’s nothing like the Process-era Sixers going on here. Can that be chalked up to lottery reform, which made it less beneficial to be among the worst two teams in the NBA by evening the odds for bad teams? I think so. I can see a world in which lottery reform did not advance where the Thunder, Kings, Cavaliers and Wizards have additional incentive to be as bad or worse than the Wolves, Rockets and Pistons. A world in which the Pistons find a way to put Grant on ice in April and May. But the changed odds just create no incentive to be the worst instead of one of the worst.

Except in the case of a certain wrinkle that actually affects two of these teams. The wrinkle is draft protections, and the teams are Houston and Minnesota.

I’ve mentioned this a few times in the newsletter recently. The Timberwolves only keep their pick if it lands in the top three. Otherwise, the Warriors get it thanks to the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell trade. The Rockets only keep their pick if it lands in the top four. Otherwise, the Thunder can swap it for Miami’s pick, which is going to be in the late teens at best.

Before lottery reform in 2019, Houston could have guaranteed a top-4 pick by finishing with the worst record in the NBA. The lowest the worst team could fall was No. 4. The Wolves wouldn’t have been able to guarantee a top-3 pick at all, but would have clinched a 64% at a top-3 pick with the worst record.

Now, under newer lottery rules, Houston cannot guarantee a top-4 pick (the worst record would earn the Rockets a 52% chance at a top-4 pick) and the Wolves would have just a 40% chance at a top-3 pick with the worst record. In a subtle twist, because of where these pick protections fall, neither the Rockets nor Minnesota needs the worst record get these most favorable odds. When it comes to the top four picks in the draft, the worst three teams in the NBA have identical odds. In other words, the Rockets will have the same odds of getting a top-3 pick whether they have the worst record or the third worst record.

So the Wolves and Rockets just need to be among the three worst teams. And lo!, they are both among the three worst teams — among the three teams who appear to be trying to be among the worst teams in the NBA. The Wolves actually haven’t done anything to improve their chances of keeping that pick, which honestly should be as big a priority of developing Anthony Edwards and Jarrett Culver. Minnesota is just plain bad. But given how lottery reform has affected the calculus, there should be less fear in Minnesota that the Wolves will “accidentally” win too many games and victory themselves out of a good chance to keep a highly valuable pick. They can end up with a better record than two teams and keep the same odds.

What the Wolves need to fear is the Magic, Thunder or Kings embracing the tank and racing for the bottom. You get a fourth team in the mix for a bottom-3 record and the Warriors start licking their chops.

From the Rockets’ perspective, the bonus wrinkle is that the Thunder bottoming out could not only improve OKC’s chances of getting a very high pick, but it could knock Houston into a spot where they are more likely to give up their pick to … OKC! As I noted, we a bottom-3 record the Rockets have 52% at a top-4 pick they would then keep. If OKC slides in there and has a bottom-3 record, pushing Houston to the fourth worst record, the Rockets’ odds go down to 48%. It’s not a huge change, but it opens the door for the Thunder to potentially pick at 1 and 5, and Houston to pick No. 22 or something.

That must make it at least a little alluring for OKC to aim low, right? Almost makes you wonder what would happen if they started Justin Jackson, Moses Brown, Ty Jerome and Aleksej Pokusevski …

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Ace in the Hole

Liz Cambage announced on Friday that she’s returning to the Las Vegas Aces for the 2021 season. The Aces were already title contenders. In my mind, they are now the favorites. A’ja Wilson and Cambage are both MVP-caliber players, and Chelsea Gray joining Angel McCoughtry, Jackie Young and Dearica Hamby — this is a squad.

The Storm smoked the Cambage-less Aces in the Finals in 2020, but Seattle lost some key pieces. You can’t rule out any Breanna Stewart team, especially when she still has amazing supporting talent. The Sky, Mystics, Sun and Mercury will all have something to say, too. It’s going to be a good WNBA season, and having Cambage around makes it even better.

Scores

Friday

Sixers 127, Wizards 101 — Philadelphia continues to win, but Joel Embiid injures his knee and will miss at least two weeks.

Nuggets 103, Grizzlies 102 — Last play for Ja Morant and Memphis.

SportsCenter @SportsCenter

The officials ruled there was no foul by Jokic on Ja Morant in the final seconds. The Nuggets went on to win by 1.

The last-two-minute report agreed with the call. Tough loss for the Grizz.

Cavaliers 82, Pelicans 116

Heat 101, Bulls 90 — Jimmy Butler is playing as well as anyone in the league over the last few weeks.

Magic 77, Spurs 104

Rockets 99, Jazz 114

Pacers 100, Lakers 105 — Indiana controlled the game until the fourth, when Kyle Kuzma exploded for 15. With Anthony Davis out for at least two more weeks, this is welcome for L.A.!

Saturday

Knicks 119, Thunder 97

Pistons 95, Nets 100

Raptors 104, Hornets 114

Bucks 125, Wizards 119 — An NBA record five triple-doubles on Saturday, including two high-scoring 3x10s from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Russell Westbrook.

Kings 106, Hawks 121

Blazers 125, Timberwolves 121

Pacers 122, Suns 111 — Caris LeVert, back in action two months after a cancerous tumor was removed from his kidney, getting a start in his Pacers debut, and Indiana beats hot Phoenix. You love to see it.

SportsCenter @SportsCenter

Caris LeVert with his first point since having a small, cancerous mass removed from his left kidney 🙌

Mavericks 116, Nuggets 103 — Denver was never in this one. Nice work from Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, Josh Richardson was hot.

Sunday

Grizzlies 122, Thunder 128 — It’s the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Aleksej Pokusevski show, and we’re just living in it. Word to Moses Brown and Ty Jerome, too. OKC stays FRISKY.

Jazz 119, Warriors 131 — Helluva way to end a 4-game losing streak for Golden State. Rudy Gobert ended up with 24 and 28 (yes, 28 rebounds) and the Jazz were +11 in his 32 minutes (-23 in the 16 minutes he sat). But the Warriors were on fire: 56% from the floor, 51% from three. Happy birthday, Steph Curry.

Spurs 99, Sixers 134 — San Antonio was in this game at halftime, I swear! I guess letting the Embiid-less Sixers score 46 in the third is bad?

Heat 102, Magic 97

Cavaliers 82, Hawks 100

Celtics 134, Rockets 107 — Will the Rockets ever win again? That’s 16 straight losses, Houston is just two games out of the worst record in the league.

Blazers 112, Timberwolves 114 — When Anthony Edwards has a really good game (and this might have been the best of the season for him), he looks like a superstar. Fun to watch.

Raptors 95, Bulls 118

Clippers 115, Pelicans 135 — I understand and sympathize with the desire to turn this game into a referendum on the Clippers, and maybe that’s fair. But ARE YOU SEEING ZION WILLIAMSON RIGHT NOW?

This game also featured the second best dunk of the season to date, with Jaxson Hayes soaring over and through Reggie Jackson and then making sure Reggie Jackson knew what happened.

Ballislife.com @Ballislife

JAXSON HAYES 😤

Worth the tech.

League Pass Cupdate

The League Pass Cup is a cruel mistress. The Thunder beat the Grizzlies in inspired fashion, but that game isn’t Cup-eligible. OKC’s loss to the Knicks on Saturday sure is, though! So San Antonio retakes the No. 1 seed.

A total of eight games on the LP Cup docket this week, starting with a pair tonight.

Schedule

Eight games on the schedule including an ESPN doubleheader. It’s actually a really good lineup of games. LP Cup games denoted with a 🏆. All times Eastern.

Kings at Hornets, 7 🏆
Bucks at Wizards, 7
Spurs at Pistons, 8 🏆
Knicks at Nets, 8, ESPN
Clippers at Mavericks, 9
Pacers at Nuggets, 9
Grizzlies at Suns, 10
Lakers at Warriors, 10:30, ESPN

Links

Curtis Harris on the illegitimacy of the Basketball Hall of Fame. I agree with a lot of this, and it’s not just about Chris Webber still being on the outside. (It’s mostly about Chris Webber still being on the outside.)

A doubleheader of Zach Lowe content on ESPN Insider: his 10 things column and a piece looking at the MVP race at the halfway mark. ($)

Tom Haberstroh in TrueHoop on Joel Embiid bullying the three-point revolution.

Mike Sykes on adidas’ big direct-to-consumer push.

Some Pelicans have received the COVID-19 vaccine as they are eligible under local rules. It appears that having a Body Mass Index over 25 makes one eligible in New Orleans, and it sounds like the players who received the vaccine may have qualified under that, which tells you how useful BMI is as a measure of health. (Note: Jaxson Hayes reportedly received the vaccine before that dunk on Reggie Jackson. The vaccine might include a little dose of super soldier serum, FYI.)

Dan Devine on R.J. Barrett and the difficulties of projecting roles.

Be excellent to each other.