🤓 Mighty Knowledge - Older Books, The Planning Fallacy, and More
For those who love to learn
Mighty Knowledge
⭐️ Quotes
"Those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." ― George Bernard Shaw
Every action you take is a manifestation of your thoughts. Your mind is the source: you must learn to understand it and use it to think well if you wish to create positive change in your life.
"Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." ― T.S. Eliot
The only way you can ever know if your dreams are possible is by taking action to try and achieve them. It's scary, risky, and difficult, but it's the only way you'll ever know for sure.
"Children must be taught how to think, not what to think." ― Margaret Mead
Our education system teaches us what to think, like facts and hard skills But the more valuable thing to learn is how to think well. Effective thinking never goes out of date and can be applied universally.
It's funny to notice that no matter how hard we try, we still tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a task. Work deadlines are frequently missed by both teams and individuals. Cleaning the house was supposed to take one hour but it took two. Finishing that side project took you way longer than expected..... Why?
This natural human tendency to underestimate how long something takes to do is known as The Planning Fallacy. It's no small thing: missing deadlines or being late can be discouraging. It often leads to missing out on other things because you have to complete the remaining work for the task that you underestimated.
Luckily, there are some simple ways to mitigate the effect of this fallacy:
Divide and conquer -- Breaking your tasks down into smaller pieces makes it easier to estimate how long they'll take. Estimating how long it will take to write a 3000 word essay is hard; estimating how long it will take to individually write the 250 word intro, each 500 word paragraph of the body, and the 250 word conclusion is a lot easier
Add a buffer -- When estimating anything, make it your default action to automatically add 20% to your estimate. If you get it done early then great, you have extra time! But if the task takes you longer than expected then you'll be happy that you got the extra time
Look at your history -- You can make more accurate estimates by comparing your current task to a similar one you completed in the past; they'll probably take a similar amount of time. Plus, by doing this kind of retrospective you can see what made the previous task take so long and try to finish the current similar faster by improving the slower parts
Limit the scope -- Make your projects smaller in the first place. Taking on big projects necessarily leads to underestimates because of unseen complexity. Limited scope allows you to see all the parts a lot more clearly and therefore make sharper estimates
Communicate early -- If you're working on a team and you see that you're going to miss a deadline, it's best to let everyone know as early as possible. That way, they can easily adjust and it won't be as big of a deal
In the 21st century, most people seem to have lost the skill of being alone with their thoughts. Often times, when people have an extra few minutes, they find themselves unable to be idle and think. They scroll through their phone, snack on junk food, fidget, or in general try to do something to distract themselves. Here's a striking quote from the article:
"Psychologists at the University of Virginia and Harvard University began exploring this question by inviting volunteers to spend time in a room void of all distractions (except for an electric shock device) and to occupy themselves with their thoughts. Their findings, published as a series of studies in 2014, were striking: 67 per cent of the men and 25 per cent of the women opted to intentionally shock themselves, rather than spend a short period of time alone with their thoughts."
People would literally rather hurt themselves than do nothing and that's not good at all. Being able to think, reflect, brainstorm, and just let your mind work is really important. It's a prerequisite for strategic planning and a catalyst for creativity.
The studies referenced in the article converge on one key problem: people don't know what to think about. When left alone with our mind, we simply don't know what to do with it. But if we have a specific reason for our thinking then it becomes more enjoyable to do.
Here is a combination of advice from the article as well as my own experience for getting better at thinking on your own:
Choose topics that you enjoy or are valuable to think about -- Goals, dreams, past accomplishments, vacations, loved ones. Anything that is either meaningful or pleasurable will be a lot easier and more useful to think about
Set your topics ahead of time -- Have a pre-set list of specific topics that you will think about whenever you have free time. That'll make it a lot easier to get into since you don't have to trouble yourself with choosing what to think about on the fly
Set a specific thinking time -- I love journal writing for this. You can make it a habit to write in a journal every evening before bed, reflecting on the day and your progress for your long-term goals
Practice -- With all great things, practice makes perfect. As long as you keep putting in the effort to think, you'll improve over time until it eventually becomes a natural skill
This one is about how to move on and rebuild your confidence after failure, especially when the thing you failed at was important to you. Erika Hamden, an astrophysics professor at the University of Arizona, shares her tips for bouncing back from failure.
Bounce off your to-do list -- When you feel stuck and don't know how to move forward, your to-do list is a source of clarity. It's a direct, sharp, well-defined list of what needs to be done so that you don't need to think about it. Just look at the next task and dive into it immediately
Separate your value from your work -- You might fail on a project or goal, but that doesn't mean that you yourself are a failure. The fact that your efforts didn't work out this time doesn't make you any less of a person. In fact, you've got a lot more going for you than most others. By trying something that had a risk of failure you gained courage and information about what not to do next time. It's like the great Thomas Edison quote: "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work"
Have a mutual support group -- Celebrate your successes and your failures with the people you care about. It'll make the good times feel great and the bad times feel not so bad, for both you and them
Remember that no one cares about your failures as much as you do -- Your own failures always look the most painful from your point of view. But take a step back and think to yourself rationally: "If this happened to someone else, would I really think it was that bad?" By taking that third-person viewpoint, it's a lot easier to see that the failure was not so bad after-all
Watch out for burnout -- Failing at a big goal can often motivate you to try again immediately, this time pushing even harder. But for the sake of both your long-term health and your success, it's often a good idea to take a break. Relax and don't do any work for a while. You'll be a lot more productive, focused, and able to execute better when you're fully rested
Believe in the possibility of your future success -- Just because you failed last time doesn't mean you'll fail this time. The opportunities are still there, all you have to do to give yourself a chance is try
Self-help is the most common genre that people start with when first getting into reading non-fiction books. That's perfectly fine and natural; those books are popular so you're more likely to hear about them. But as you read more and mature in your reading journey a great question to ask yourself is: what are the most valuable books to read? Your time is limited so you (unfortunately) can't read everything. You want to be sure that you're spending that limited reading time on the books that you'll learn the most from.
The most valuable books to read are going to be older books. They're usually more valuable reads than newer books because they've stood up against the hardest benchmark in existence: the test of time.
Today, I'd like to share with you 8 old books whose life lessons are eternally valuable.
Marcus was an emperor of the Roman Empire during the height of its power. This is his notebook of private thoughts and reflections on how to live well.
The fundamental playbook of military strategy. The beauty is that these concepts can be applied to many modern fields including business, politics, law, and sports.
A guide to understanding politics, power, and the true nature of people in competition. Machiavelli says what everyone else is too afraid to say about these taboo topics.
Socrates is considered to be one of the wisest people of all time; Plato was his most dedicated student. This book is a series of writings that present the life and core ideas of Socrates.
Montaigne dedicated his life to gaining knowledge, studying everything from war to poetry, human nature, experience, and beyond. These are his insightful essays on what all of those things, and life, means.
Netflix gets a bad rap these days due to being a time-suck, but this series has been super educational. Each episode is light and brief (~ 20 to 25 minutes) and focuses on different events in history that have shaped our model world. Some of the interesting episodes:
The Space Race -- Shows how the space race of the 1960s between the United States, Soviet Union, and other countries was mostly political to begin with. Only later was it discovered that space science and exploration was of critical importance
The Rise of China -- Shows how China has risen over the years as an economic power and will soon overtake the United States. Huge capital investments, mass labor, and ensuring that they always manage a critical piece of the supply and manufacturing chains of world-wide goods are all contributing factors
Oil in the Middle East -- Shows how precious the discovery of oil in the middle east was. It has grown to become an economic struggle where the rich are fighting for control over billions of dollars worth of resources at the expense of pretty much the rest of the world
Overall the series is a nice overview and historical account of such key events. I totally recommend it if you're looking for a relaxing source of learning at the end of your evening.
Do you ever find yourself feeling sluggish or tired throughout the day, even though you feel like you're doing everything right? You may have gone through the basic checklist: 8 hours of sleep, some exercise, and no caffeine before bed, yet you still feel tired. It seems like much of our society is in that permanent state of tiredness.
This video from Better Ideas tackles that problem and explains why you're always so tired and how to fix it. There are three key points to it that are often overlooked.
1. Too much caffeine (DO NOT underestimate this one!)
It's often said that your last cup of coffee should be no later than 5 to 7 hours before you sleep... But that doesn't give us the whole picture. First of all, 5 to 7 hours is the half life of coffee, meaning that there's still about half the caffeine in your systems after 5 to 7 hours. It also means that there's still a quarter of the caffeine still in your system 10 to 14 hours later, probably when you're sleeping! Second, many who drink coffee have more than a single cup; remember that one cup is actually 250 mL... it's not that much!
There are two ways to help with this.
The first one as suggested in the video is by having caffeine (from coffee or tea) as early in the morning as possible. That way, you minimize the amount of caffeine that's still in your system by the time you go to bed.
A second tip that I can give is switching to decaf. I personally love the taste of good coffee but don't want to become reliant on caffeine or any other stimulant just to function throughout the day. Therefore, I recently switched to decaf coffee. Before the switch a lot of people told me that decaf tastes horrible, but in my experience you just have to experiment a bit to find one that you like. I personally find Kicking Horse Decaf to be delicious (not an affiliate link, I just love the coffee 😃).
2. Not enough sleep opportunity
We all know the old rule that you should get 8 hours of sleep each night, but are you really getting 8 hours of sleep? For many of us, it's more like we lay down in bed for 8 hours, but it might take you some time to fall asleep once you lay in bed. It could take 15, 30 or even 60 minutes to fully fall asleep!
The trick is to give yourself more sleep opportunity. Start laying in bed earlier than 8 hours before you have to wake up. That way, you're giving your body extra time to wind down. I personally find it helpful to read a book before bed and turn off all digital devices. It's relaxing, you learn things, and it doesn't keep you awake like the bluelight from your cell phone or laptop. Plus it turns into a routine where laying in bed with a book signals to your body "hey, time to sleep soon!"
3. Not enough exercise
It's intuitive to think that when you exercise a lot then you'll become more tired; that's partially true in the short-term. But in the long-term, the opposite is true. When you do regular exercise, your body eventually raises its baseline of energy that it's able to expend throughout the day. It gets used to being more energetic because it literally has to be to maintain the exercise. That's also why I tell people "if you workout more you get to eat more food" to motivate them to exercise more. Your body will literally need more fuel, so if you love to eat then exercising is in your best interests!
Another part of this is to make sure that your exercise is consistent. If you're hitting the gym 5 days a week, but the rest of your day is split between sitting at your desk and on the couch, you're really not giving your body the movement it needs. Walk around for a few minutes every hour, invest in a standing desk, or take inspiration from my dad and go for a 40 minute walk every evening, regardless of weather conditions! Anything to get more regular movement is helpful.
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