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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), Yesterdays Insider Buys & Yesterdays Unusual Call Options Volume.

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TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up!

BUY LIST UPDATE: The BUY LIST is just plain ugly! -15.54% as the market panicked yesterday … & these companies were trading at a value PRIOR to the Russian Invasion of the Ukraine. It is important during times like these to maintain a little discipline … if you are intent on going long. You may do what you like, but I think traders should have a cash position of AT MINIMUM 30%. There’s also nothing wrong for selling calls against the underlying if you are intent on holding. In any case, these “super value” buys, pending a recovery, ought to do well in the long run. Buy in small, average down as necessary, & don’t rush it!

MARKET UPDATE: The S&P is in correction territory & the NASDAQ is in bear market territory. Ladies & Gents, this is where we make our money! Time & Discipline are our friends here. There are certainly some highly risky options strategies that we can implement at these levels that may pay off big in the long run … HOWEVER, only God knows that the future will bring. WE ARE ONE GEOPOLITICAL DISASTER AWAY FROM A CERTAIN RECESSION! Watch China! So watch your risk!

So why are the markets freaking out? Well we still have supply chain issues, semiconductor shortages, high inflation (7.5% for January), & the Fed is certain to raise interest rates by at minimum 0.25% this month. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine has cut off some of the world supply of steel, food from at least 3 countries, fertilizers from 2 countries, mining from 2 countries, & 92%+ of the worlds neon gas. The elephant in the room is gas prices. Normally the markets rally when gas prices increase due to high demand. However prices aren’t increasing due to high demand. They’re increasing due to short supply. The price for a gallon of gas hit an all time US record high yesterday. And the more people pay for gas, the less money they spend on other items. Also the higher energy costs increase, the more expensive everything becomes. Its a double whammy!!

I cannot emphasize enough how devastating these high energy costs are. Even if OPEC were to commit to increase the supply of oil by just a few million barrels per day, it would likely take 6 months to a year before it would come close to that target. The White House continues to be firmly in the anti US energy production camp. In addition to all the restrictions on leasing & drilling, they have yet to hold a summit with oil executives. (Note that they had a very public meeting with automakers & unions when the administration wanted to incentivize electric vehicle production, but nothing thus far with respect to bringing in the oil executives.) Instead, President Biden is opting to meet with the Saudi’s in an attempt to ramp up foreign production (The Saudi’s have a large stash of reserves). Given that the Biden Administration has already run afoul with the Saudis by scrutinizing the war in Yemen & restricting arms sales, such a meeting should be interesting. In the interim the White House isn’t even being close to honest on how how destructive their policies are on oil prices.

Other options for the White House include panhandling to Venezuela & Iran. But by begging Venezuela & Iran, they would be sanctioning blood money in order to finance more blood money. In this hyper politically conscious administration, (an observation derived from the fact that they put green energy policies before the American people’s wallets), such a prospect prior to the November elections would be political suicide. Either way I assess that the political pressure to sanction Russian energy is high (For a number of countries), & its only a matter of time before Congress puts a bill on his desk. Therefore the implied task for President Biden is to find a source of supply to supplement the disruption in Russian supply.

Oil companies are already breaking ties from Russia anyway. And honestly there is no short term solution to the immediate oil crisis. The lack of foresight & proactive reasoning by the White House on oil has put us in a serious bind here. And regardless of how we approach things for now, there’s just no replacing Russian oil without pain at the pump that will last for well over a year. I assess we WILL have record high oil prices for the foreseeable future.

INFLATION WARNING: As one of the most prominent causes of current inflation, if not the most prominent at the moment, high commodity prices (such as oil) WILL LIKELY MAKE INFLATION WORSE THAN ANALYSTS ARE CURRENTLY PRICING IN! At this time consensus inflation numbers for February are 6.4% (Core Inflation), 7.9% (Inflation Rate). I assess that inflation will likely continue to rise in the months to come. The Fed’s interest rate increases will take months to produce any substantive effect. Worse still, these record high gas prices, food prices, & commodity prices as experienced right now, will not be priced into the inflation numbers reported on March 10th, but rather the following month. And if we have yet another geopolitical disaster … whether it comes from China, North Korea, Iran, etc., the inflation thereof will very likely push us well into double digit inflation. The headwinds & risks are significant! Trade accordingly!

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Significant News Heading into 03.08.2022:

• Stock futures nudge higher after the S&P 500′s worst day since October 2020 amid Russia-Ukraine war

• Mainland Chinese stocks lead losses in Asia amid continued investor caution over Russia-Ukraine war

• European markets whipsaw as investors monitor Russia-Ukraine war

• Treasury yields jump as inflation fears rise

• Russia warns of $300 oil, threatens to cut off European gas if West bans energy imports

• Shell says it will no longer buy Russian oil and gas, apologizes for purchase after Ukraine invasion

• ‘There’s just no way’: Analysts say alternative supplies wouldn’t be able to fully replace Russian oil

• American businesses in China say U.S.-China relations are back to Trump era tensions

AVERAGE STATS ON ALL STOCKS ON THE BUY LIST AS OF MARKET CLOSE 02/18/2022 (FINVIZ & YCHARTS)

• Share Price Low/Average/High: 3.94/37.51/$180.40

• Average Trailing PE: 9.87 vs S&P (24.56est)

• Average Forward PE: 7.98 vs S&P (22.35 est)

• Average PS: 0.76vs S&P (2.85 est)

• Average PEG: 0.68

• Average PB: 1.64 vs S&P (4.38 est)

• Average Current Ratio: 2.34

• Average Insider + Institutional Investment: (84.98%)

• Average Debt to Equity: 0.74

• Average P/L on the BUY LIST as of 03/08/2022 -15.54% (Value at a Discount Amid a Market Pullback)

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 16 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 27 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 7 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

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